Joe Biden’s closest western allies will depart Washington unsure of the US’s commitment to Nato beyond January, after an alliance summit overshadowed by questions about whether the American president can continue his fight for re-election against Donald Trump.
The White House had hoped the 75th anniversary gathering would be a show of alliance unity and resolve against Russia. But the US domestic political turmoil and renewed equivocations from Trump about Washington’s commitments to the alliance’s common security principles contributed to an intense sense of unease.
Much of the talk throughout the week, whether in the cavernous convention centre where leaders gathered, at formal receptions across the US capital or at after-hours gatherings at bars and embassies, centred around how Biden had performed at the summit’s proceedings — and what his future would hold.
On Thursday evening as the summit’s programme was nearing its end, Biden mistakenly referred to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as Russian President Vladimir Putin. He caught himself quickly, but the gaffe only stoked the tense environment and those in the room gasped.
“Now I want to hand it over to the president of Ukraine who has as much courage as he has determination, ladies and gentleman, President Putin,” Biden said, before quickly adding: “President Putin, he’s going to beat President Putin — President Zelenskyy.”
Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s prime minister who left the summit on Thursday to meet Trump in Florida, told other leaders at a formal White House dinner on Wednesday that Nato allies who still thought Biden could win “were like people on the Titanic playing violins as the ship went down”, according to people briefed on his private remarks.
Others were quick to dismiss such pessimism. Biden had been “fully present” during the summit, people who witnessed his official interventions said, and did not appear either distracted by the political storm outside the Nato bubble or as fatigued as he did during the debate two weeks ago that scrambled his re-election chances.
“The focus here really has been on the substance,” insisted Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser. “It’s been on what we’re trying to deliver for the defence of the alliance and deliver for Ukraine and deliver in our partnerships with the Indo-Pacific. It hasn’t been about politics.”
But his acuity and coherence during the White House dinner on Wednesday night was the main topic of conversation among delegations the next day, underscoring the widespread nervousness among Nato allies as to whether he would be able to continue to campaign — and eventually win.
Dozens of world leaders and their aides collectively held their breath at the opening ceremonies on Tuesday, where Biden surprised outgoing Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg with the US’s highest civilian honour, the Presidential Medal of Freedom.
After reading encomiums for Stoltenberg from a teleprompter, Biden then turned to the tall Norwegian to fasten the medal around his neck. One person in the room said attendees could hear a pin drop as the gathered invitees waited to see whether the president could complete the task.
Other attendees of the opening session on Tuesday said Biden delivered strong remarks once cameras left the room.
“He was robust and energetic in the room today,” said a person present during Wednesday’s closed-door sessions at the summit. “But being able to read prepared remarks from a paper is a low bar for a US president.”
Nato allies have been assiduous in refraining from any public remarks related to Biden’s health for fear of interfering in November’s election or upsetting a critical ally.
But the silence belied the acute nervousness among European allies about the election, given Trump’s stated anti-Nato positions and the importance of US security pledges to European capitals.
During a rally in Florida on Tuesday while Biden was kicking off the summit, Trump criticised the alliance and said he threatened world leaders not meeting their defence commitments that the US may not protect them against future Russian attacks. Article 5 of Nato’s founding North Atlantic Treaty requires allies to consider an attack on any member as an attack on all.
In public, attendees repeatedly batted away questions from reporters about Biden’s mental state or ability to lead.
“I’m not getting distracted,” Finnish foreign minister Elina Valtonen said in an interview with the Financial Times, when asked whether Biden’s challenges were taking away from the historic gathering. “I only worry about things I can influence . . . both Nato and the United States will survive whichever decision.”
Additional reporting by James Politi in Washington