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Democrats are too scared of a contested convention

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Democrats are too scared of a contested convention

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When Democrats want to frighten the children, they speak of the days of brokered conventions. This was when boot-faced delegates from obscure counties and towns huddled with big city bosses in smoke-filled rooms to thwart the will of the people. Or something like that.

It all came crashing down in Chicago, in 1968, when the Democratic party self-immolated over the Vietnam war. Richard Nixon’s victory three months later was blamed on the rotten travesty that produced Hubert Humphrey as the Democratic nominee. Had Vice-president Humphrey shown some mettle and opposed President Lyndon B Johnson’s bombing of North Vietnam, he might well have won the general election. Humphrey only got the endorsement of Eugene McCarthy, his defeated rival, shortly before polling day. In spite of the Democrats’ worst efforts, Nixon’s popular margin of victory was still less than one percentage point. Had Johnson or Humphrey publicly disclosed that Nixon was interfering with the Vietnam peace talks — to prevent the much-dreaded October surprise of a bombing pause — Nixon would almost certainly have lost. Yet Democratic lore blames the party’s 1968 loss entirely on process. It is worth mentioning that the supposedly tired, old Humphrey was 57.

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The odds that this coming August we will have the first Democratic contested convention since 1968 are non-trivial. Were Joe Biden persuaded either to step down, or suffered some forcing medical event, the party would have no choice but to prove history really does rhyme by finding a new standard-bearer in Chicago. Anyone who is interested in how precisely that would work should read this fascinating discussion between Ezra Klein and Elaine Kamarck. Yet, as Jon Stewart found out last week on his return as host of The Daily Show, there is a liberal penalty for breaking omertà about Biden’s age. Stewart’s reaction is almost as accurate as it is funny. In private, not many Democrats think that Biden is up to another four years as president. In public, anyone who says so is ostracised. Partly this is because Biden’s withdrawal would mean a contested convention. What sane Democrat would want to go down that road again?

It is easy to picture how it could go disastrously. The last time anyone argued for a contested convention was Ted Kennedy in 1980. Though he had lost the primaries to incumbent Jimmy Carter in early June, Kennedy almost succeeded in turning New York City’s August convention into an open one. The debate boiled down to whether the party would permit so-called “faithless delegates”. Carter narrowly won the motion to ensure that they stayed faithful to the results of their states. But he lost the general election to Ronald Reagan by a landslide. The fact that Kennedy could hardly bring himself to utter Carter’s name, and refused to join hands with him at the closing primetime event, did not help.

It is not hard to imagine something similar taking place in Chicago this August: Biden pulls out of the race without endorsing Kamala Harris, saying it should be an open contest; she narrowly loses the nomination to a white male such as California’s governor Gavin Newsom or Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro; the party is badly rent by an identity-politics split that Donald Trump could not have scripted better; Trump wins and US democracy goes down the toilet. Yet I can also picture something quite different; a successful contested convention that rivets the nation’s attention and produces the stuff of Trump’s nightmares — a much younger and more vibrant rival. Whether that would be an unbound and rebooted Kamala Harris, Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer, or one of the male governors, is anybody’s guess. It is worth stressing though that technology would ensure the process would not be closed-door. It could not be a sordid deal between party bosses. Chicago 2024 would be a democratic exercise of a different kind.

I should add that I hope Biden remains healthy and displays more vibrancy. His State of the Union address in two weeks time will be a good reset opportunity. Were he to pull out, however, nothing would be written in the stars. The current Democratic consensus lives in clench-jawed fear of the downside. Lauren, as a reporter I have no doubt that you would relish covering such a spectacle. My question to you is what do you think would happen?

Recommended reading

  • My column this week, “Trump’s campaign is bankruptcy protection,” argues that you should always follow the money: “It is often said that Trump’s biggest incentive to win in November is to keep himself out of prison,” I write. “Less understood is the boost that another term would give to Trump’s solvency.”

  • I was fascinated by my colleague Pilita Clarke’s latest column on working from home. Way more people than expected are still working in this way and employers are assuming this will not change. It is linked both to higher productivity and lower wage growth. What’s not to like if you are an employer?

  • Finally, do read Ramachandra Guha in Foreign Affairs on “India’s feet of clay: how Modi’s supremacy will hinder his country’s rise”. Guha is one of India’s wisest public intellectuals and is worth taking very seriously. 

Lauren Fedor responds

Ed, you are right: the reporter in me would delight in covering a contested convention. After months of following a lacklustre Republican presidential primary season, where the outcome has long felt preordained, I would love nothing more than a ringside seat to a proper political fight.

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As you say, the Democrats could easily fall out over identity politics, with many party activists yearning for a woman or person of colour at the top of the ticket, and others gravitating towards candidates from less diverse backgrounds, like Newsom or Shapiro or Kentucky’s rising-star governor, Andy Beshear. 

But I also see huge potential for an even bigger split over ideology. Democratic bigwigs have demonstrated remarkable unity in sticking with Biden in recent months. Yet the outward-facing party discipline belies the underlying, persistent tension between the more moderate and progressive wings of the party. 

We saw those tensions boil over in 2016, when Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders had an ugly, protracted battle for the party’s presidential nomination. And it is easy to forget, but back in 2020, before Democrats coalesced behind Biden, voters were torn between progressives like Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, and more centrist candidates like Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar.

As president, Biden has done a decent job of satisfying both camps. But we have seen cracks in the coalition in recent months, especially over foreign policy in the Middle East. I have no doubt that an open convention this summer — or an all-but-certain open primary in 2028 — would spark more public party infighting between the left and centre.

Your feedback

We’d love to hear from you. You can email the team on swampnotes@ft.com, contact Ed on edward.luce@ft.com and Lauren on lauren.fedor@ft.com, and follow them on X at @LaurenFedor and @EdwardGLuce. We may feature an excerpt of your response in the next newsletter

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Map: 5.1-Magnitude Earthquake Strikes off the Coast of California

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Map: 5.1-Magnitude Earthquake Strikes off the Coast of California

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Note: Map shows the area with a shake intensity of 3 or greater, which U.S.G.S. defines as “weak,” though the earthquake may be felt outside the areas shown.  All times on the map are Pacific time. The New York Times

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A moderately strong, 5.1-magnitude earthquake struck in the North Pacific Ocean on Wednesday, according to the United States Geological Survey.

The temblor happened at 5:45 a.m. Pacific time about 40 miles west of Petrolia, Calif., data from the agency shows.

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As seismologists review available data, they may revise the earthquake’s reported magnitude. Additional information collected about the earthquake may also prompt U.S.G.S. scientists to update the shake-severity map.

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Aftershocks detected

Subsequent quakes have been reported in the same area. Such temblors are typically aftershocks caused by minor adjustments along the portion of a fault that slipped at the time of the initial earthquake.

Quakes and aftershocks within 100 miles

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Aftershocks can occur days, weeks or even years after the first earthquake. These events can be of equal or larger magnitude to the initial earthquake, and they can continue to affect already damaged locations.

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When quakes and aftershocks occurred

 All times are Pacific time. The New York Times

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Sources: United States Geological Survey (epicenter, aftershocks, shake intensity); LandScan via Oak Ridge National Laboratory (population density) | Notes: Shaking categories are based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale. When aftershock data is available, the corresponding maps and charts include earthquakes within 100 miles and seven days of the initial quake. All times above are Pacific time. Shake data is as of Wednesday, June 3 at 6:03 a.m. Pacific time. Aftershocks data is as of Wednesday, June 3 at 8:01 a.m. Pacific time.

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California’s primary for governor is undecided as candidates vie to be in the top two

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California’s primary for governor is undecided as candidates vie to be in the top two

Xavier Becerra, Democratic gubernatorial candidate for California, and Steve Hilton, Republican gubernatorial candidate for California, shake hands while arriving for a gubernatorial debate at KRON Studios in San Francisco in April.

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SAN FRANCISCO — The primary election for California governor is too close to call, with vote counting continuing Wednesday. Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican business executive Steve Hilton lead the field with Democrat Tom Steyer in third place.

In California’s unusual primary system, all candidates, regardless of party, appear on a single ballot open to any registered voter. The top two candidates then move on to the general election, even if they’re from the same party. This year, voters had 60 names for governor to choose from.

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The winner will lead the country’s most populous state, where leaders often take on national political prominence. Incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom is at his two-term limit and could be a Democratic contender for president.

Becerra, former Health and Human Services secretary under President Joe Biden, pitched himself to voters as an experienced political leader who isn’t afraid of President Trump, but his lead caps one of the most surprising and dramatic comebacks in recent state political history. As recently as April, polls were showing Becerra — also a former member of Congress and California attorney general — languishing in single digits in a crowded field.

In his remarks at his watch party in Los Angeles, Becerra noted his underdog status.

“Here in Hollywood’s hometown, we love a good underdog success story,” he said, drawing parallels between his campaign and his immigrant parents’ success story in California. “Guess what? The underdog stayed in the fight. Like my parents, I never gave up. Never stopped putting one foot in front of the other. Never stopped believing in the beacon-like goodness of California. And thankfully, neither did you.”

Hilton is a former Fox News commentator who also served as a political adviser to former British Prime Minister David Cameron. He was endorsed by President Trump in April, helping him to pull ahead of Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, the other major Republican in the race. Hilton has campaigned on the idea that California needs change after 16 years under total Democratic control.

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The race is narrowing down after a tumultuous campaign

At his watch party in Huntington Beach, the British-born candidate — who became an American citizen five years ago — said it was the “honor of his lifetime” to receive over 1 million votes so far.

“Change is coming to California and it’s long overdue,” Hilton said. “We’re not there yet, but it’s looking good. It looks very much as if Californians really will have the chance to vote for change in November and take our state in a new direction.”

Democratic billionaire activist Steyer spent more than $213 million of his own money to boost his candidacy and push a progressive, populist message. While he was trailing Becerra and Hilton on Tuesday night, he said at his watch party in San Francisco that he remains confident he can close the gap in the days ahead.

“Together, we’ve scared the hell out of the corporate interests used to getting their way,” Steyer said. “It might take some time to figure out where this is going. We’re going to wait until every ballot is counted. We’re gonna give democracy a time to work. And we know we finished really strong.”

The early results are not certain to hold, in part because of unusual voting patterns in this primary election: Ballot-tracking data heading into Tuesday evening showed that Republicans were more likely to vote early by mail, while Democratic voters in this deep-blue state held onto their mail-in ballots or chose to vote in person. That’s the reverse of recent elections, which saw more Democrats voting by mail and Republicans tending to vote in person on Election Day.

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The uncertainty on election night capped a race that remained crowded and unsettled to the end. To some extent, the race was defined by who wasn’t running.

Some of the state’s most high-profile Democrats — former Vice President Kamala Harris, U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla and California Attorney General Rob Bonta — all passed on a potential bid to succeed Newsom.

The race was disrupted in April when then-U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell’s campaign for governor imploded amid allegations of sexual assault and harassment. Swalwell resigned from Congress shortly after the accusations surfaced and has denied assault allegations.

Swalwell had been gaining in polls and racking up high-profile endorsements, and his exit seemed to primarily benefit Becerra, who had been stuck in single digits in many polls. Ultimately, it quieted fears among Democrats who worried that the messy Democratic field could result in Bianco and Hilton winning the top spots in the June primary.

Marisa Lagos covers California politics at KQED and co-hosts the Political Breakdown show and podcast.

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Supreme Court reinstates Republican-favored Alabama congressional districts

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Supreme Court reinstates Republican-favored Alabama congressional districts

The U.S. Supreme Court

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The Supreme Court on Tuesday cleared the way for Alabama to use a congressional district map favored by Republicans.

The court, in an unsigned order, overturned a three-judge district court panel that found that the map is “tainted by intentional race-based discrimination.” The court’s three liberals publicly dissented.

The ruling means that Alabama’s 2026 midterm elections will feature six Republican-leaning districts and one Democratic-leaning one, as opposed to a map with only five safe Republican seats. Democrat Shomari Figures, who represents Alabama’s Second District, will likely lose his seat as a result of the high court’s ruling.

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The story of Alabama’s congressional map is long and tortured. It began in 2021, when the state implemented a new map to account for population changes in the census. The map featured only one majority-black district out of seven, even though the state is more than one-quarter Black.

Voters immediately sued, claiming the map illegally diluted minority votes in violation of the Voting Rights Act and the Constitution. Lower court judges agreed, ruling that the state must draw a map with two districts where Black voters have a realistic chance of electing their candidate of choice. The Supreme Court more than once has ordered Alabama to draw a compliant map.

But the state has refused and instead continued to litigate the case. On Tuesday, that tactic paid off.

What changed? In April, the Supreme Court’s conservative supermajority all but gutted what remains of the Voting Rights Act, ruling that states cannot purposefully draw districts that are majority-minority.

Alabama then asked the high court to reinstate the state’s old map, under the theory that this new ruling meant that it was permissible to use a map with only one majority-Black district. In an unsigned, unexplained order in May, the high court essentially reversed its previous opinions, and allowed Alabama to use the old map for the upcoming midterm elections.

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This set off a flurry of activity in Alabama. By the time the Supreme Court issued its May order, absentee balloting had already begun, using the court-drawn map. So Republican Governor Kay Ivey cancelled elections and scheduled a special primary for August for the affected congressional races.

The case, however, was not over.

In its ruling, the Supreme Court had ordered a lower court panel to continue evaluating Alabama’s map in light of its recent Voting Rights Act decision. And just 15 days after that order, the panel, composed of three Republican judges—two of them Trump appointees—concluded unanimously that even under the Supreme Court’s new standards, the plan for a single black district was “intentionally discriminatory.”

So, once again, Alabama returned to the Supreme Court, arguing that the map was partisan, not racially discriminatory. In short, that the Republican legislature simply drew the map to elect more Republicans. And that under the Supreme Court’s new interpretation of the Voting Rights Act, the GOP map should be allowed to stand.

The court’s conservative agreed, writing that the lower court “did not heed the presumption of legislative good faith.”

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The court’s three liberals publicly dissented, castigating the conservative majority for failing to abide by its 2006 decision in the case of Purcell v. Gonzalez. That decision declared that courts should not change election rules too close to an election.

Justice Sonia Sotomayor, in her dissent, said the court “debases the democratic process” and “corrodes the rule of law by rewarding Alabama’s gamesmanship and outright defiance of court orders.”

Tuesday’s decision is the latest in a series of Supreme Court rulings that could well reshape the 2026 midterm elections, making it much harder for Democrats to prevail.

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