D.C.-area forecast: Wintry mix quickly turns to another soaking rain today

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

2/10: 1 for weekend and 1 for some chance to see a snowflake before the cold rain.

• Today: Wintry mix to rain. Highs: 34-44.
• Tonight: Rain ending. Clearing and breezy. Lows: 29-35.
• Tomorrow: Partly to mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs: 42-47.

Rain and temperatures in the 30s are about as bad a weather combo as it gets. While each step north and west of Washington increases your odds of seeing snow, much of the area should fairly quickly switch to rain as the storm passes. A slushy coating to a couple of inches of snow is most probable in Loudoun and northwestern Montgomery counties. To see much more than that you’ll need to drive to the mountains to the west or north toward the Mason-Dixon Line.

Today (Saturday): Precipitation approaches the region around sunrise. It may take a few hours for the air mass to saturate and snow or wintry mix to reach the ground. Up to a few hours of mixed precipitation (snow, sleet and freezing rain) is possible near and west of Interstate 95 before it transitions to all rain midday. East of I-95, most or all of the precipitation probably falls as rain. The rain-snow line should advance toward the mountains during the afternoon. Before the transition to rain, watch out for a few slick spots on untreated walkways and roads, especially in our colder areas. Once the precipitation switches to rain, it could be heavy at times.

Temperatures may struggle to get much above freezing west and north of Leesburg and Frederick, while upper 30s to near 40 are common for high near the Beltway. Highs could reach the low or mid-40s in Southern Maryland. Winds blow from the east and northeast around 10 to 20 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: As the storm center passes Southern Maryland around sunset, steady rain ends. About an inch or so of rain could fall. Skies partially clear overnight, but a spotty lingering shower or two can’t be ruled out. Lows range from about 29 to 35. Gusty winds from the northwest should help dry damp surfaces, reducing the risk of wet areas freezing over, but keep an eye on temperatures and use caution just in case. Confidence: Medium-High

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Tomorrow (Sunday): A shower could linger into early morning, but clouds tend to be few much of the day. Temperatures rise mostly to the mid-40s, with some upper 40s intermixed. It’s breezy in the wake of the storm, with gusts from the northwest up to around 25 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: Mainly clear conditions rule the night. Winds stay up a bit, which helps wind chills stay below actual temperatures. Lows are mainly in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Confidence: Medium

High pressure is in control Monday as the next storm gathers over the southern Plains. We should see light winds in addition to mainly sunny skies. Mid- to upper 40s for highs. Confidence: Medium

No rest for the storm-weary. Tuesday’s storm, while passing well to our west, will tap a tremendous amount of moisture from the south. Heavy rain is a good bet, particularly in the afternoon. Totals of 1 to 2 inches seem likely. Temperatures head well into the 50s and perhaps to around 60. Confidence: Medium

A daily assessment of the potential for at least 1 inch of snow in the next week, on a 0-10 scale.

4/10 (→): Considered lowering this to a 3 since any snow Saturday will be short-lived, but sometimes it doesn’t take long for a little to pile up. The best chance of accumulation will tend to be well west and north of the city.