Central NY could see record warmth, flash freeze and 8 inches of snow — in 48 hours

Syracuse, N.Y. — Hang on tight: Upstate New York is going for a wild weather ride over the next few days.

It starts with potentially record warmth today and Wednesday, then a strong cold front with damaging winds on Wednesday, then a flash freeze late Wednesday into Thursday. Capping it will be a blast of possibly heavy lake effect snow for a narrow swath of Central New York.

The wind could also knock down tree branches and power lines across the northern half of Upstate. The National Weather Service has issued high wind alerts for Wednesday afternoon and evening for gusts nearing 60 mph.

“It will feel like two very different seasons ahead and behind this (cold) front, with multiple hazards possible,” the weather service office in Buffalo said.

Here’s a rundown of what to expect, day by day, according to the weather service.

Today. Under mostly sunny skies, temperatures climb quickly today, peaking in the mid 60s. That could be record-breaking: Syracuse is expected to reach 66 degrees this afternoon, and the record for Feb. 27 is 64. Albany could reach 64 today; the record there is 62.

Today’s highs could be nearly 30 degrees warmer than normal, which is about 38 degrees.

Light rain starts to move in this afternoon.

Wednesday: Another warm, possibly record-breaking day, with highs again in the mid 60s. The Feb. 28 record for Syracuse is 66 degrees.

Rain becomes more likely and more steady Wednesday morning and through the afternoon. Some areas could see a half-inch or more. There’s even a chance for thunder in the afternoon.

The unseasonable warmth comes to a screeching halt early Wednesday afternoon when the cold front arrives from the northwest. Temperatures will plunge from those mid 60s around lunch time to the low 20s by midnight. Winds start to howl in the afternoon and pick up speed overnight.

“Temperatures are expected to drop RAPIDLY behind the front, possibly as much as 20 to 25 degrees in 2 to 4 hours,” the weather service said.

The combination of rain and plummeting temperatures raises the danger of a flash freeze, where water on roads, sidewalks and parking lots is rapidly transformed into a thin but treacherous sheet of ice. If the rain is heavy enough, it will have washed away road salt, and public works crews can’t spread salt fast enough to stay even with the falling air temperatures.

High winds from the northwest and dropping temperatures also spell lake effect snow, starting late Wednesday night.

Thursday: Strong winds continue throughout the day, and temperatures never get out of the 20s. Eight inches or more of lake effect snow could hammer a narrow section of Central New York, including Syracuse.

“While our headlines are presently focused on the wind,” the weather service said, “the lake effect snow may end up being the more significant hazard.”

If that snow materializes, Thursday could be Syracuse’s snowiest day of a relatively snow-free winter. The most snow on any day this winter was 5.6 inches, on Jan. 6. The two-day total of Jan. 6 and 7 was 10.2 inches, the only real snowstorm of the season.

Wind and snow taper off by sunset Thursday, and the warm winter we’ve come to know returns for the weekend. Highs on Friday are in the upper 40s, and back into the 60s by Sunday.