With Wisconsin football struggling, Luke Fickell approaches inflection point

MADISON, Wis. — Quick: Name the best win Luke Fickell has produced at Wisconsin since the start of last season. A victory last year at rival Minnesota, which finished with a losing record and reached a bowl game on the strength of its academic progress rate? A closer-than-expected triumph in September against South Dakota, a top-five FCS team? A blowout at Rutgers, which hasn’t won a game for more than a month?

Now identify the worst loss. Here are some options: a 20-14 stinker against an Indiana team that had been 2-21 over its previous 23 conference games and fired its coach three weeks later; a 24-10 defeat to Northwestern in which the Badgers trailed by three touchdowns at halftime and were booed off the field by the home fans; a 42-10 loss to Alabama that served as the program’s worst home defeat in 16 years; or Iowa’s 42-10 thrashing of Wisconsin at Kinnick Stadium on Saturday night — the Hawkeyes’ largest margin of victory in the series since 1968.

“That’s the first time that I’ve really felt this,” Fickell told reporters following the game. “Even after the Alabama game, it wasn’t the same thing. This was something, like, kind of your worst nightmare to be overtaken, manhandled and dominated, especially in the second half.”

The point is, there have been more embarrassing losses than good wins in the 22 games since Fickell took over (excluding the Guaranteed Rate Bowl played under the previous staff). And that is a big problem because it shows just how far Wisconsin is from taking the next step as a program. Forget the expectation to win championships, as athletic director Chris McIntosh put it when he fired Paul Chryst more than two years ago. Wisconsin has been middle of the pack at best, with Fickell 12-10 overall since last season and 8-7 in league play.

Wisconsin is 5-4, including 3-3 in the Big Ten this season, with remaining games against No. 1 Oregon, Nebraska and Minnesota. Where does Wisconsin go from here? Here are five thoughts on the program as the Badgers enter their second bye week of the regular season:

1. Wisconsin has a quarterback problem with no clear-cut solution. Braedyn Locke has started six games since Tyler Van Dyke tore the ACL in his right knee against Alabama, and Locke’s limitations significantly contribute to Wisconsin’s struggle to beat quality competition. He has thrown at least one interception in every start this season and has eight interceptions total with one lost fumble.

Locke has been praised for his knowledge of the playbook, but his inability to execute at a high level under pressure has been evident. Both of his interceptions against Iowa came on throws into coverage, and both turnovers led to Iowa touchdowns. According to Pro Football Focus, he has had 15 batted passes at the line of scrimmage in two seasons. His career completion rate is 53.9 percent. His career quarterback rating of 112.4 ranks 22nd out of the 23 Wisconsin quarterbacks who have started at least two games since 1993 (ahead of only Jay Macias’ 106.4).

I don’t know if true freshman backup quarterback Mabrey Mettauer is the answer. Reporters haven’t seen practices since the middle of August, and he was far behind Van Dyke and Locke at the time. I can understand coaches not wanting to put Mettauer in a position to fail, and using him in Wisconsin’s next game against No. 1 Oregon wouldn’t be ideal. But at this point, it may be worth rolling the dice to see whether he can provide a spark.

Mettauer can play in one more game this season to retain his redshirt, but redshirting doesn’t seem as important to a team in the transfer portal era. If Mettauer can add value or take pressure off Locke, Wisconsin should give him a look. At the very least, it would provide coaches a firmer idea of whether Mettauer could challenge for snaps next season because Fickell has said the only way to know about a quarterback is to watch him play in games.

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2. What does Wisconsin do at quarterback long-term? A lot of it has to do with whether Fickell retains offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach Phil Longo because there likely would be a transfer portal exodus with his departure. But the Badgers need to be aggressive, which includes doing something Fickell has said he doesn’t want to do — pursue a transfer portal quarterback for a third consecutive offseason.

Van Dyke has another year of eligibility, but his ACL injury complicates a timeline when Wisconsin needs certainty. Cole LaCrue is a redshirt freshman who hasn’t thrown a pass and was recruited by the previous coaching staff. Mettauer has played 16 snaps and thrown one pass. Braedyn’s younger brother, Landyn, is committed in the 2025 class but tore his ACL during his senior season.

Fickell and his staff have shown dedication in their pursuit of upgrading talent at multiple positions. No position is more important for Wisconsin to move forward than at quarterback. Wisconsin has been in contact with four-star 2025 quarterback Carter Smith, who recently decommitted from Michigan. The Badgers hope to host a game day visit for him when Wisconsin plays Oregon. But Wisconsin also hasn’t started a true freshman at quarterback since 1991 and could use a player with at least some experience who is capable of helping the Badgers win games. That’s why exploring the transfer portal for a player with multiple years of eligibility could make sense.

Braedyn Locke has thrown eight touchdowns and eight interceptions this season for Wisconsin. (Jeffrey Becker / Imagn Images)

3. Fickell is only two seasons in at Wisconsin, and he isn’t going anywhere considering the move McIntosh made to hire him in late November 2022. It seems reasonable to believe Fickell will be granted a few more years to try and turn around the program with a roster full of his players, which is something former Badgers players like Joe Thomas and Joe Schobert told me after the USC loss.

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But the same can’t be said for his assistant coaches. Fickell replaced his offensive line coach after one season because he didn’t like the direction it was headed under Jack Bicknell Jr. The biggest question to emerge this season is whether Fickell will move on from Longo, who put up big numbers at previous schools but hasn’t done the same at Wisconsin. Longo has been hampered, in part, by starting a backup quarterback for nine of 22 games. But he also handpicked that backup out of the transfer portal. And even when Tanner Mordecai or Van Dyke played, the offense rarely clicked.

Reporters have been left to try and read between the lines of what Fickell says he wants for the offense and whether that aligns with what Longo wants. But so far, the marriage isn’t working. In the four biggest games of the season, Wisconsin has been outscored 150-54. Wisconsin averaged 23.5 points per game last season, its lowest output in 19 years, and is at 25.1 points per game this season, hardly the step necessary step forward. Wisconsin’s final three regular-season opponents all rank in the top 25 nationally in scoring defense and in the top 20 in total defense.

Longo has one year left on a three-year deal that pays him $1.25 million annually. If Fickell chooses to take a new path, finding the right offensive approach will be paramount.

4. Plenty of time has been spent over the past two seasons on the lack of meaningful progress on offense. But what about the defense and whether defensive coordinator Mike Tressel is the right answer? Iowa ran for 329 yards against Wisconsin, the most the Badgers have surrendered since the 2012 Rose Bowl against Oregon and the most in a Big Ten game since 2005 against Minnesota. Wisconsin primarily played in a nickel defense even though Iowa wasn’t much of a threat to pass. Iowa ran the ball 54 times and passed 10 times.

Tressel said when he arrived that he planned to “mesh the elite,” between what worked for Jim Leonhard at Wisconsin and for Tressel while at Cincinnati. Whatever meshing has transpired, it’s hard to see what has been elite. Wisconsin ranks sixth nationally in pass defense because it has played several poor passing offenses. But the best quarterbacks the Badgers have faced — Alabama’s Jalen Milroe, USC’s Miller Moss and Penn State’s Drew Allar (for a half) — completed 56 of 80 passes (70 percent) for 652 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception. Wisconsin’s run defense, meanwhile, ranks 92nd (164.6 yards per game).

Wisconsin doesn’t have the type of All-America linebackers that have led the way in previous seasons. Tressel and the staff worked to find more athleticism at the position through the portal, and it has not generated better results. It can be tough to determine how much lack of success stems from scheme or talent, but there is plenty of blame to go around.

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5. Fickell told reporters after the Iowa game that “we all know what we signed up for,” which was an expectation to play the best football possible. Then, he stated the obvious: “Right now, that’s not the case.”

Fickell had a tougher task than he could have imagined in taking over a program on the downswing. Were the changes he tried to implement too drastic? Does his messaging ring hollow? Does Wisconsin simply not have the personnel capable of consistently contending? This offseason figures to be the most critical of Fickell’s time at Wisconsin.

The problem is it’s hard to see the path getting better in the short term. The schedule next season is tougher with road games against Alabama, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota and Oregon, as well as home games against Iowa and Ohio State. Those teams this season are a combined 53-17. Wisconsin can’t hide in the Big Ten West anymore and needs to win to prevent fan apathy from setting in.

Maybe NIL and a revenue-sharing model in which schools can directly pay athletes $22 million across all sports will help. But Wisconsin is battling plenty of other schools for the same players. The Badgers still need to develop players over time, which was a staple under past regimes but is more challenging than ever in the current college football landscape.

It’s difficult not to look big picture and wonder where this program is headed. Are the Badgers diving deep into an abyss similar to Nebraska, searching in vain for relevancy that will take decades to find? Fickell is frustrated with the results. It’s up to him to find answers he doesn’t have right now.

“There’s going to be a lot of guys, myself included first and foremost, that are going to have a self-check,” Fickell said after the Iowa game, “and look in the mirror, and really kind of self-evaluate what they’re willing to do moving forward.”

(Top photo: Jeffrey Becker / Imagn Images)