Purdue Basketball: Wisconsin Preview: Stats, Analytics, Analysis

Wisconsin 2025-2026 Season

2/28: W – 63 – 62 vs Oregon @ Home

2/24: W – 72 – 68 vs Indiana @ Away

2/17: W – 78 – 74 vs Maryland @ Home

Nolan Winter went down with an ankle injury in Wisconsin’s 78-45 demolition of Maryland. He’s listed as day-to-day. If he’s unable to answer the bell, look for Bieliauskas to move to center and Austin Rapp to move into the starting lineup at power forward.

(Per KenPom.com – National Rank / Big 10 Rank in ())

Adjusted Efficiency: 124 (18) – Big 10 Only: 118.6 (4)

Adjusted Tempo: 69.1 (91) – Big 10 Only: 67.7 (3)

Average Possession Length: 17 (105) – Big 10 Only: 18.1 (7)

Effective Field Goal%: 54.2 (64) – Big 10 Only: 53.7 (9)

Offensive Rebound%: 29.7 (214) – Big 10 Only: 28.8 (6)

Three Point%: 35.7 (80) – Big 10 Only: 32.8 (8)

Two Point %: 54.9 (61) – Big 10 Only: 54.2 (10)

Adjusted Efficiency: 102.1 (48) – Big 10 Only: 112.3 (9)

Adjusted Tempo: 69.1 (91) – Big 10 Only: 67.7 (3)

Average Possession Length: 17 (105) – Big 10 Only: 18.1 (7)

Effective Field Goal%: 54.2 (64) – Big 10 Only: 53.6 (12)

Offensive Rebound%: 29.7 (214) – Big 10 Only: 34.9 (18)

Three Point%: 35.7 (80) – Big 10 Only: 32.8 (8)

Two Point %: 54.9 (61) – Big 10 Only: 54.2 (10)

I usually find a stat mismatch that favors Purdue in this section, but I feel like this is a “throw the stats out the window” type of game. The Boilermakers have rolled over at home against the top of the Big 10 this season. Needless to say, that’s surprising for a group of battle-tested seniors who started the season with National Championship aspirations.

The “Big 3” has turned into “maybe one of the three show up?” for Purdue.

Their last home win was a 93-64 beatdown of the Hoosiers, where Braden, Trey, and Fletcher all played up to their preseason expectations, and the game was never in doubt. That’s what I’m looking for in their last game in Mackey. Things haven’t gone the way we hoped this season, but a win against Wisconsin would give the Boilermakers some much-needed momentum heading into the Big 10 Tournament.

If all three Purdue seniors show up, this game shouldn’t be close, especially considering….

If Winter can’t go, or is significantly hindered by a bum ankle, it’s going to be tough sledding for the Badgers today. As a veteran ankle sprainer, I wouldn’t be super optimistic about his chances of being anywhere close to 100%, he’s in the “oh man, this thing is throbbing, swollen, and purple” part of the recovery process. Throw in the fact that Wisconsin has the Big 10 tournament looming, and I’m doubtful that the Wisconsin big man plays in this game.

The Battle of the Backcourt

Nick Boyd and John Blackwell have been outstanding this season. That’s not great for a Purdue team with only one guard capable/interested in playing defense. CJ Cox will probably have to guard Blackwell because he’s too strong for Braden or Fletcher off the bounce. That, I assume, leaves Braden on Nick Boyd, and that should give everyone some indigestion. At the very least, Purdue’s senior guard needs to match Boyd’s point production because, based on all available data, he’s going to get into the lane at will and torture the Boilermakers.

Wisconsin: Prefer not to say

Looking Into My Crystal Ball

I smashed my crystal ball after the Ohio State loss. As I said above, I’d like to think that Purdue’s seniors show up today and give the home crowd a show in their last home game. That’s certainly one of the scenarios that could play out today, and it’s the one I’ll be hoping for.