Marquette Poll: Presidential race is a virtual tie in Wisconsin

MILWAUKEE, Wis. (WBAY) – The presidential race is a virtual tie here in the battleground state of Wisconsin — as if it weren’t clear enough from having both Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris Republican former president Donald Trump campaigning in the state on the same days Wednesday and Friday.

The Marquette poll released six days before the election says Harris leads Trump 50 to 49 percent among likely voters, a 1-point difference. Harris had a 4-point lead in the previous poll in late September.

Undecided voters were asked if they would vote for at that moment if they had to choose. The results were unchanged, with 50% choosing Harris, 49% choosing Trump, and 5% saying they couldn’t choose.

Third-party votes

Of course there are other candidates from smaller parties on the ballot. When the poll included them, Harris’ lead grew slightly to lead Trump 46 to 44 percent.

Robert F. Kennedy had support from 5% of respondents, even though he’s no longer in the race, which would more than make up the difference for Trump.

We just reported Tuesday that the U.S. Supreme Court rejected Kennedy’s effort to get off the ballots in Wisconsin and Michigan after withdrawing from the race and endorsing Trump.

The Marquette Law School Poll asked those smaller parties’ supporters who they would vote for if it were only a choice between Trump and Harris.

Their answers indicate Kennedy (We the People Party), Chase Oliver (Libertarian) and Randall Terry (Constitution) might pull votes away from Trump on Election Day.

Jill Stein (Green), Cornel West (independent) and Claudia De la Cruz (Party for Socialism and Liberation) might be pulling votes away from Harris.

Early voting

An interesting twist that could decide the November 5 outcome appeared when voters were asked if they’d already voted or how they plan to vote.

Among those voting early, Trump was supported by 52% and Harris by 47%. But among those voting absentee by mail, Harris had a huge advantage, 70% to Trump’s 30%.

Asked who they think will win in November, regardless of who they voted for, 45% of respondents expect Harris will “definitely” or “probably” win compared to 37% who say it will be Trump being sworn in on January 20.

But pollsters noticed an increasing number of respondents who said they “Don’t Know” who will win this race.

Under Wisconsin law, absentee and early in-person voting ballots are not tabulated until Election Day.

U.S. Senate

The U.S. Senate race is neck-and-neck with Democratic incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin leading Republican businessman Eric Hovde 48% to 45%, with the remaining 7% of voters still undecided.

If voters had to choose at that moment, Baldwin’s lead fell 1 point, leading Hovde 51-49, tightening the statistical tie.

Sampling

The Marquette Law School Poll was conducted October 16-24 and interviewed 834 Wisconsin voters.

36% of respondents identified as Republican, 34% as independent, and 31% as Democrat.

October’s poll has a margin of error of 4.4 points.

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