Wisconsin
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WASHINGTON ― Vice President Kamala Harris holds narrow leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan in Wisconsin four days from the presidential election, according to new polls of the three “blue wall” states released Friday by Marist College that show the Democratic nominee gaining with independent voters.
In Pennsylvania, Harris is ahead of Republican nominee Donald Trump 50%-48% among likely voters, Marist found, and leads Trump 51%-48% in Michigan and 50%-48% in Wisconsin.
The polls − some of the most encouraging surveys for Harris in recent days − were taken Oct. 27 to Oct. 30. Each result is within the polls’ margins of errors of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points in Pennsylvania, 3.5 percentage points in Michigan and 3.4 percentage points in Wisconsin.
Harris is buoyed in the polls by independent voters shifting her direction. In Pennsylvania, Harris leads 55%-40% with independents, Marist found, a turnaround after Trump had a 4-point advantage with Pennsylvania’s independent voters in September. Harris leads among independent voters 52%-46% in Michigan and 51%-46% in Wisconsin.
Harris underperforming with Black voters, but gaining with white voters
Reflecting a defining trend of the 2024 election, the polls found large gender gaps, with Harris faring better among women and Trump with men.
In Pennsylvania, Harris is ahead 53%-45% with likely women voters, while Trump leads likely male voters 51%-47%. Harris leads likely Michigan women voters 55%-44% over Trump and likely Wisconsin women voters 55%-43%. Trump is ahead with likely Michigan male voters 52%-46% and likely Wisconsin male voters 53%-44%.
Despite Harris’ polling leads, the vice president is underperforming with Black voters compared to President Joe Biden’s performance in the 2020 election, Marist found.
Harris leads Trump 84%-16% among Black voters in Pennsylvania and 75%-25% among Black voters in Michigan. Biden won support from 92% of Black voters in 2020. Harris has support from 63% of non-white voters in Wisconsin, while Biden had support from 73% in 2020.
Yet Harris is overcoming the lagging numbers with Black voters by doing better than Biden performed with white voters. Trump leads Harris 51%-47% with white voters in Pennsylvania, below the 57% Trump garnered with this group in 2020. Trump leads white voters 51%-48% in Michigan, a narrower margin that his 55%-44% performance four years ago. Trump leads Wisconsin’s white voters 50%-48% after carrying the state’s white voters by 6 points in 2020.
What is the blue wall?
The polls, conducted through a combination of phone interviews, texts and on online, used samples of 1,642 Pennsylvania voters, 1,429 Michigan voters and 1,549 Wisconsin voters.
Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan − each carried by President Joe Biden in 2020 − have voted as a bloc in every presidential election since 1988, with one of the presidential candidates sweeping all three. Trump flipped the three “blue wall” states to the Republican column in 2016 en route to his defeat over Democrat Hillary Clinton.
If Harris carries all three “blue wall” states in the Nov. 5 election, then she would likely secure enough electoral votes to win the presidency even if she loses the four other battleground states − North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. That’s assuming Harris wins Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district, where she is polling ahead, and all other states she is heavily favored to win.
For Trump, a victory in any of the “blue wall” states − particularly Pennsylvania, which has 19 electoral votes, the most of any battleground − would open a path for him to secure the necessary 270 electoral votes by pairing that win with victories in the Sun Belt states, where he is polling stronger.
Reach Joey Garrison on X, formerly Twitter, @joeygarrison.