Couch: How Michigan State lost at Wisconsin is proof the Spartans will ultimately fall short

MADISON, Wis. – This one felt like an indictment. Proof that the Spartans will ultimately fall short. Pretty good evidence that this Michigan State basketball roster, even with a stellar backcourt and a seasoned power forward, doesn’t have enough.

It doesn’t have a pro like Wisconsin does in AJ Storr. Or a big man that’s a factor in the paint, like the Spartans have faced several times this season, including against the Badgers. That’s on Tom Izzo and his staff. They bet on the centers they had, rather than go after another in the transfer portal. It’s likely to be their downfall this season.

The great Izzo teams have been relatively matchup-proof. This one is matchup-dependent. The Spartans are capable of an NCAA tournament run, as long as they face the right foes — even really good ones. Baylor, for example. But not Wisconsin. Marquette last year. Not Connecticut.

This harsh reaction to Friday night’s 81-66 loss — and some other nights and losses this season — is about expectations. This is an MSU team with lots of quality and qualities. The Spartans might win most — if not all — of their next eight games. They’ll likely be the favorite in each of them. They’ll finish somewhere from third to sixth in the 14-team Big Ten, firmly in the NCAA tournament field, probably still about a 6 or 7 seed.

If the Spartans were Northwestern or Nebraska, that would be more than fine. Thrilling, even. Or if this were a young group, taking its first steps together, Friday’s loss would be no big deal, part of the journey. But MSU’s starting lineup features four 23-year-olds, two fifth-year guys, two fourth-year seniors and a junior. The Spartans hoped this season would be the year their sweat equity and talent and depth put them back atop the conference and among the elites in college basketball.

Instead, the team they hoped they’d be kicked their butt Friday night.

Izzo afterward talked glowingly about Wisconsin’s players, including Storr, the St. John’s transfer from Rockford, Illinois, whose addition made all the sense in the world. He’s elevated the Badgers from a solid, veteran team with size and shooters, to one that could win the Big Ten and, if Wisconsin plays like it has twice against MSU come March, could be around in April.

“He can shoot it from distance,” Izzo began of Storr, who had 28 points Friday. “He’s got a great first step. He’s got great athletic ability. He’s got length, handles the ball pretty well and he doesn’t miss free throws. So that’s a lot of pluses.”

The Spartans have a couple guys with a lot of pluses, too. But they don’t have that guy.

Nor do they have a guy like 7-footer Steven Crowl, who tallied 15 points, seven rebounds, three assists and a blocked shot Friday. He was too much for MSU inside.

“You don’t know whether you double him or not because he is a good passer,” Izzo said.

That’s not something MSU’s opponents have to consider. Maybe Jaxon Kohler will get there. But he doesn’t play a big enough role right now to worry about him yet. When MSU’s other two centers are in the game, opponents are hoping the Spartans throw it into them.

Izzo didn’t do what Wisconsin coach Greg Gard did — not only address a need, but add a player in Storr whose presence makes the Badgers seem complete and menacing.

“They’ve got a full attack,” MSU’s Jaden Akins said.

MSU’s got a partial attack — a capable but not overwhelming post player in Malik Hall, but nobody who’s a problem for teams in the paint. The Spartans have been out-rebounded in six of their nine Big Ten games. They haven’t been a dominant rebounding team since before the pandemic. They’ve lost that part of their identity as a program. And I don’t know whether an Izzo team can win big without it.

While I understand Izzo’s bet-on-his-guys philosophy, that’s not what college basketball is entirely anymore. Nor has Izzo strictly followed it. When he thought he needed a point guard, he went and got Tyson Walker out of Northeastern, not trusting what A.J. Hoggard would become. Adding a grad transfer big man wouldn’t have been giving up on sophomores Carson Cooper or Kohler. It would have been saying you’ve seen three years of Mady Sissoko and you don’t trust there’s another level to him. It doesn’t mean you don’t like Sissoko as a person or value him as a player. But betting on Sissoko as your starter, at this point, is also to risk wasting a backcourt that has a chance to take you places.

Kohler’s injury complicates this analysis. Izzo and Co. thought Kohler was going to be a significant part of things. I think they thought Cooper might take the next step quicker than he has. They thought, between the three of them, they’d be fine. They’d have been better off going after someone like Bradley grad transfer Rienk Mast, who’s manning the middle for Nebraska this season, scoring 18 points in a win over Purdue and 34 last week against Ohio State. Against MSU, Mast had just eight points, but with 14 rebounds and six assists.

This era of MSU — post Cassius Winston and Xavier Tillman — will be defined by MSU’s inconsistencies at the center position, Marcus Bingham Jr. and Julius Marble through Sissoko, and the coaching staff’s inability to fix it.

MSU has lost 13 games each of the last three seasons. At 12-8 (4-5 in the Big Ten), the Spartans are probably headed for about that this season when the postseason is said and done. This is not some anomaly in the Izzo era. MSU lost 12 or 13 games in five of six seasons from 2001 to 2007, interrupted by a 2005 team that I’ve thought compared to this one, even if built differently — not overwhelming, but potentially really good, a 5-seed in the NCAA tournament that went on a run to the Final Four.

It’s getting harder to picture that for this group. Really hard after Friday.

Izzo emerged from those six years — which included four first- and second-round NCAA tournament exits — with the Kalin Lucas-led group that began a 13-year run in which MSU reached eight Sweet 16s, four Final Fours and won six Big Ten championships. Izzo was younger then. The sport has changed. But he’s recruiting just as well now, even if this year’s freshman class hasn’t been the immediate impact group many of us thought it would be. Maybe Jeremy Fears Jr. and Co. will be that Lucas and Co.-type group. Maybe Friday night and this season overall will prompt Izzo to reassess when and how to best use the transfer portal. You can argue that being loyal to your players also means giving them the best chance to win.

This season doesn’t have to define how the final years of the Izzo era are gong to go. But what we saw Friday — the gap between Wisconsin (16-4, 8-1 Big Ten) and MSU for a second time — means that this group is unlikely to be one that hangs a banner.

While the Badgers talked about big goals and playing with an edge, the Spartans talked of going “brain dead” on a couple defensive coverages and needing to make “effort-related plays.”

Quite the contrast.

“We gave up some offensive rebounds tonight,” Akins said. “We really can’t do that against a team like that. You’ve got to play damn near perfect.”

Perhaps the truest words of the night — MSU has to play damn near perfect to beat a team like that.

Couch: 3 quick takes on Michigan State’s 81-66 loss at Wisconsin

Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.