Better Know a B1G: Adv. Stat Comparison Wisconsin Badgers

This is the next in the series comparing some statistical rankings between BigTen opponents and UW. This week’s comparison is with the Penn State Nittany Lions. UW last played them in the 2017 Fiesta Bowl.

Here’s a list of the previous teams covered:

Composite Ranking Comparison

We again start by looking at the final rankings in the Massey Composite (https://masseyratings.com/ranks) over the last 9 years between the teams.

Wisconsin has finished in the top-25 five times-the same number of times as UW. Twice they finished in the top-10; again, that is the same number of times as UW. And Wisconsin always finished in the top 50 over this recent period. But, their two worst years have been their last two years, which is not a good trend.

SRS

Here is the picture in the Simple Rating System, SRS, (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2023-ratings.html).

The view here doesn’t look much different. Wisconsin had a very good year in 2017 and finished above UW in 5 seasons.

F+

Here’s a look at the F+ ratings for both teams. As a reminder, F+ is a combination of two advanced stats: FEI and SP+. This should be representative of most of the advanced stats.

Wisconsin was just barely above UW in 2015 (1.17 vs 1.11), and clearly ahead in 4 other seasons. And again you see Wisconsin dropping off the last two seasons.

Talent Comparison

Here is the talent comparison using the average rating by 247Sports for all of the scholarship players. (https://247sports.com/Season/2023-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/)

Wisconsin has closed the talent gap. And that is continuing with the 2025 class. UW’s average rating is currently 88.36 while Wisconsin’s is 88.20. And when looking at their recent recruiting classes, a large percentage of their top-rated commits are on the offensive or defensive line. For example, in the 2021 class, their top 4 commits were either offensive or defensive linemen.

Final Thoughts

The emphasis on offensive line and defense by Wisconsin has suited them well in the BigTen, especially when there were divisions in the conference. The question now is whether that strategy will continue to work when there are no divisions and with the addition of 4 teams that have had great offenses. It didn’t work out well for them in 2023 when they lost to WSU both times they played. And this year Wisconsin plays both USC and Oregon-two of what should be the best offenses in the country. And Wisconsin also plays host to Alabama this year-and we know that DeBoer should have Alabama’s offense playing well.

UW is scheduled to play at Camp Randall Stadium in 2025. Wisconsin is currently scheduled to play at Husky Stadium in 2028. Despite the drop in performance in the last two seasons, Wisconsin is probably not a team to take lightly.