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Trump first, Haley second, DeSantis third in highly anticipated final poll ahead of Iowa caucuses

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Trump first, Haley second, DeSantis third in highly anticipated final poll ahead of Iowa caucuses

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DES MOINES, IA – Former President Donald Trump remains the commanding front-runner in a closely watched poll of likely Republican presidential caucusgoers in Iowa.

And former ambassador and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley edges Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for second place.

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The final Des Moines Register/Mediacom/NBC News poll of likely Republican caucusgoers was released Saturday night, two days before the Iowa caucuses lead off the 2024 GOP presidential nominating calendar.

Trump stands at 48% support in the poll, with Haley at 20% and DeSantis at 16%

Multimillionaire biotech entrepreneur and first-time candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who has relentlessly campaigned across the Hawkeye State the past couple of months, stands at 8% support in the poll.

BLIZZARD DERAILS IOWA CAMAPIGN EVENTS, WILL BELOW ZERO TEMPS DEPRESS CAUCUS TURNOUT?

Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump greets members of the audience after a Fox News town hall in Des Moines, Iowa, on Wednesday, Jan. 10, 2024.  (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

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The new poll is the second straight survey in Iowa to indicate Haley ahead of DeSantis, following a Suffolk University poll that was released a few days ago. But her advantage over DeSantis in the new survey is within the sampling error. 

And poll indicates that just nine percent of Haley supporters are extremely enthusiastic about her White House bid, which was much lower than enthusiasm among those backing Trump and DeSantis.

The survey, conducted by longtime pollster Ann Selzer, has a well-earned tradition of accuracy in past GOP presidential caucuses, and is considered by many as the gold standard in Iowa polling.

Trump is the clear front-runner in the race for Republican standardbearer as he makes his third White House run.

Trump made history last year as the first former or current president to be indicted for an alleged crime, but his four indictments, including charges he tried to overturn his 2020 presidential election loss, have only fueled his support among Republican voters.

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TRUMP TAKES NO CHANCES AS THE IOWA CAUCUSES APPROACH

DeSantis, who was convincingly re-elected to a second term as Florida governor 14 months ago, was once the clear alternative to Trump in the Republican White House race. For months, he was solidly in second place behind the former president.

However, after a series of campaign setbacks over the summer and autumn, DeSantis saw his support in the polls erode.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican presidential candidate, takes a selfie with a supporter at a campaign stop in Ankeny, Iowa on Jan. 12, 2024 (Fox News – Paul Steinhauser)

Haley, who served as ambassador to the United Nations in the Trump administration, grabbed momentum during the autumn, thanks to well-regarded debate performances. In recent weeks, she caught up with DeSantis for second place in polls in Iowa and in national surveys. 

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HALEY KNOCKS MEDIA EXPECTATIONS BUT LOOKS TO ‘BIG SHOWING’ IN IOWA

Haley also surpassed DeSantis and surged to second place and narrowed the gap with Trump in New Hampshire, the state that holds the first primary and second overall contest in the GOP nominating calendar, eight days after Iowa’s caucuses.

Former U.N. Ambassador and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, a 2024 Republican presidential candidate, speaks to the crowd at a campaign event in Ankeny, Iowa, on Jan. 11, 2024. (Fox News/Paul Steinhauser) (Fox News – Paul Steinhauser)

DeSantis appears to have staked much of his presidential campaign on a strong finish in Iowa. He has highlighted that he has stopped in all 99 of the state’s counties and showcased his strong grassroots outreach organization in Iowa. Pundits have labeled Iowa a “do-or-die” state for the Florida governor.

Last month, in multiple interviews, even though he was down double digits in the polls to Trump in Iowa, DeSantis predicted victory.

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“We’re going to win Iowa. We’ve got the organization in place,” the governor declared in a Fox News Digital interview in Bettendorf, Iowa, a week before Christmas.

 

But DeSantis seems to have tempered expectations, telling Fox News multiple times in recent days that “we’re going to do well” in Iowa.

A large Donald Trump 2024 sign outside of the former president’s Iowa campaign headquarters is covered by snow, on Jan. 13, 2024 in Urbandale, Iowa. (Fox News – Paul Steinhauser)

The survey was released on Saturday evening, after a blizzard slammed into Iowa the past two days, and as frigid weather dropped temperatures below zero across the state.

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The bitterly cold weather, which is forecast to extend into the working week, threatens to put a chill on turnout at Monday night’s caucuses.

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who did not campaign in Iowa this cycle as he concentrated his time and resources in New Hampshire, suspended his campaign on Wednesday. His sliver of support was reallocated to the other candidates still in the race.

The poll was conducted Jan 7-12 , with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 points.

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.

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South Dakota

AP Decision Notes: What to expect in South Dakota’s state primary

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AP Decision Notes: What to expect in South Dakota’s state primary


WASHINGTON — South Dakota’s governor, the speaker of the state House, the state’s lone representative in Congress and a businessman will face off in a competitive Republican primary for governor on Tuesday. Primary voters will also choose nominees for other state and federal offices, while Sioux Falls residents will elect a new mayor.

Gov. Larry Rhoden seeks a full term as the state’s chief executive. He was previously lieutenant governor under then-Gov. Kristi Noem but assumed the top job when Noem stepped down in early 2025 to join President Donald Trump’s Cabinet.

Serving less than half a term as governor was not enough for Rhoden to clear the Republican field. He faces strong challenges from U.S. Rep. Dusty Johnson, state House Speaker Jon Hansen and businessman Toby Doeden.

The winner will face former state Sen. Dan Ahlers in the general election. Ahlers is unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

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At the top of the ballot is the race for the U.S. Senate, in which Republican Mike Rounds seeks a third term. His opponent in the primary is Justin McNeal, a U.S. Navy veteran who ran as an independent in 2024 against Johnson for his U.S. House seat but was kept off the ballot over invalid signatures on his nominating petition.

Nonprofit executive and former state trooper Julian Beaudion is unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Attorney and military veteran Brian Bengs is running in the general election as an independent. Bengs previously ran for the U.S. Senate in 2022 and received 26% of the vote against Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune.

State Attorney General Marty Jackley is running to replace Johnson in the U.S. House. He faces Republican James Bialota in the primary.

Trump has endorsed Rounds for U.S. Senate and Jackley for U.S. House. He did not endorse a candidate for governor.

In South Dakota primaries for governor, U.S. Senate and U.S. House, candidates must receive at least 35% of the vote to win the nomination. If no candidate reaches that threshold, the top two vote-getters advance to a June 23 runoff.

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In Sioux Falls, the state’s most populous city, five candidates are competing to replace term-limited Mayor Paul TenHaken. If no candidate receives a vote majority, the top two finishers will advance to the runoff.

The key counties to watch on primary night are on opposite ends of the state. Minnehaha County on the eastern border is home to Sioux Falls. Pennington County on the western border is home to Rapid City.

South Dakota is one of the most reliably Republican-voting states in general elections, so the winners in Tuesday’s GOP primaries should enter the general election campaign with a considerable advantage.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

When do polls close?

Polls close at 7 p.m. local time, which is 8 p.m. and 9 p.m. ET. Polls in most of the state are in Central time and close at 8 p.m. ET, but some polls are in Mountain time and close at 9 p.m. ET.

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What’s on the ballot?

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, state Senate, state House and mayor of Sioux Falls.

Who gets to vote?

Registered party members may vote only in their own party’s primary. In other words, Democrats can’t vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. Independent voters or those with no party affiliation may participate in the Democratic primary but not the Republican primary.

How many voters are there?

As of April 1, there were about 674,000 registered voters in South Dakota, including about 318,000 registered Republicans, about 138,000 registered Democrats and about 157,000 independents or voters with no political affiliation.

How many people actually vote?

Nearly 119,000 votes were cast in the Republican U.S. Senate primary in 2022.

How much of the vote is cast early or by absentee ballot?

About 19% of the 2024 primary vote and about 20% of the 2022 primary vote was cast before primary day.

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As of May 26, about 17,000 ballots had already been cast in Tuesday’s election, roughly 79% in the Republican primary and roughly 15% in the Democratic primary.

When are early and absentee votes released?

In South Dakota, results from mail and in-person early voting are usually released together with results from in-person Election Day voting. More than a third of the state’s 66 counties tend to release most or all of their results, including in-person Election Day results, in the first vote update.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

Although South Dakota spans two time zones, state law requires that no results are released until the final polls have closed at 9 p.m. ET.

In the state’s most recent U.S. Senate primary in 2022, the AP first reported results at 9:02 p.m. ET, or two minutes after the last polls closed. The final vote update of the night was at 3:22 a.m. ET, with more than 99% of total votes counted.

When will the AP declare a winner?

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

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How do recounts work?

Recounts in South Dakota are automatic only in cases of tie votes. Losing candidates for statewide office may request a recount if the vote margin is 0.25% or less of the total votes cast. Candidates for state legislative and local offices have a higher threshold: 2% of the total votes cast. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

Are we there yet?

As of Tuesday, there will be 154 days until the 2026 midterm elections.



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Wisconsin

Ready for a hike? Try reaching the top of Wisconsin’s highest point

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Ready for a hike? Try reaching the top of Wisconsin’s highest point


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If a trek up a faraway mountain won’t fit on your summer to-do list, maybe you can still find time to hike to Wisconsin’s highest point.

That journey would take you up Timm’s Hill in Price County, which stands at nearly 1,952 feet above sea level, according to the State Cartographer’s Office.

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Timm’s Hill is nestled in woodlands of north central Wisconsin, just off County Road RR in Ogema. At the summit, hikers can climb an observation tower that offers 30-mile views of the surrounding area, according to Travel Wisconsin.

Highpoint Guide, a website with information on peaks across the country, says Timm’s Hill was named after Timothy Gahan, a late-1800s logger. Gahan often set up camp near the woods surrounding the hill, which now make up Timm’s Hill County Park.

What to know if you’re visiting Timm’s Hill

Timm’s Hill County Park is open year-round. The park gate is open 7:30 a.m. to 9:30 p.m. approximately May through October, and winter parking is available at the intersection of Ring School Road and County Road RR, the Price County website says.

The park has a boat landing and fishing pier, along with picnic shelters and hiking trails. The 10-mile Timm’s Hill National Ice Ace Trail is accessible for hiking, biking and horseback riding and intersects with the statewide Ice Age Trail, which spans over 1,000 miles.

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How does Wisconsin’s highest point compare to other states

Timm’s Hill, at 1,952 feet, ranks as the 39th-highest high point among the 50 states, according to Highpoint Guide.

Minnesota and Michigan both rank just above Wisconsin, though Illinois, Indiana, Iowa and Ohio all have high points below 1,700 feet. The highest point anywhere in the United States is Alaska’s Mount McKinley, formerly known as Denali, at 20,320 feet.

In Wisconsin, Price County is one of six counties in north central Wisconsin with points above 1,900 feet. Powder Hill and Holy Hill have the highest elevations in the southeastern part of the state at just above 1,300 feet.

The Lake Michigan shoreline boasts the lowest elevation in Wisconsin at just 579 feet above sea level, according to the State Cartographers Office.

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Detroit, MI

Frontier bids to expand in former Spirit space at Detroit Metro Airport

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Frontier bids to expand in former Spirit space at Detroit Metro Airport


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Romulus — Frontier Airlines is positioning itself to expand at Detroit Metropolitan Airport following Spirit Airlines’ exit, as airlines adjust routes to absorb passengers displaced by the collapse of the low-cost carrier.

The Wayne County Airport Authority confirmed that the Denver-based Frontier has formally requested access to Spirit Airlines’ former terminal space at the Warren Evans Terminal, though officials declined to say how many gates the airline is seeking or the proposed lease terms.

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“It would be premature to share any details about ongoing discussions or potential lease agreements with Frontier or any other airline,” Cortez Strickland, spokesperson for the airport authority, wrote in an email.

Frontier, meanwhile, said it has already begun increasing service from Detroit and expects additional growth beginning this summer.

In a statement, the carrier said it has restored nonstop service from Detroit to Fort Lauderdale and Las Vegas, routes it had previously operated before pausing them. The airline is evaluating additional changes across its network.

“Our Network Planning team is continuing to evaluate our overall route network to determine future route additions as well, and we anticipate increased capacity from DTW starting in July and through the winter,” Rob Harris, spokesman for Frontier, said in an email.

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Frontier’s request comes as aviation experts say Spirit Airlines’ exit from Detroit Metro Airport will reshuffle demand among carriers already serving the market. Those airlines include Delta Air Lines, Frontier Airlines, American Airlines, United Airlines and Southwest Airlines. Travel agents also say airfares have been climbing, with fewer low-cost options and higher fuel costs contributing to costlier tickets for travelers.

“Spirit is gone, however, the market is still over there …” said Selim Ozyurek, assistant professor at Western Michigan University’s College of Aviation. “The other airlines are going to be taking advantage of the existing demand.”

The void created by Spirit Airlines

Spirit previously operated from six gates in the Evans Terminal at Detroit Metro Airport. The airport authority said all former Spirit routes are being served by other airlines operating at the airport. However, the loss leaves a gap in Detroit’s low-cost air travel market.

“The airline was a low-cost carrier with a DTW-based crew and a maintenance hangar onsite,” Strickland said. “While it may be difficult to identify an exact replacement with an identical operational model, all routes formerly operated by Spirit are currently being serviced by other carriers at DTW. Also, our Air Service Development team regularly researches opportunities to increase routes and attract new airlines to DTW.”

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Frontier said maintaining a strong presence in Detroit is central to its low-fare strategy, and that competition from budget carriers helps keep air fares down.

“The presence of low-fare carriers in a market forces competition among airlines and reduces the cost of flying for consumers overall,” Harris said.

Travel agents say airfares are elevated compared to last year, driven by a mix of fewer low-cost options and higher fuel costs.

“It’s hard to say if it’s the absolute departure of Spirit, or if it’s a combination of the departure of Spirit and the fuel prices,” said Maggie Burnside, certified travel adviser with Fly Lansing Travel. “I would say it’s probably a good combo of both. They’re differently higher this year than they have been in previous years.”

Burnside said, for example, a Detroit to Cancun flight would have been in the $450-$550 range via Spirit, but a basic economy ticket with airlines like United or American is about $900, up from about $700-$800 on those carriers last year. Delta Air Lines fares are also higher.

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“Delta is positioning themselves that way as the premier airline,” said Liz Andrews, certified travel consultant with Fly Lansing Travel. “Not that they don’t want that competition, but they want to give you more for your tickets than just throwing you on the plane.”

David Fishman, president of Cadillac Travel Group, said fares that were commonly in the $300-$400 range last summer are now often running between $600 and $800. He said airlines have reduced the number of flights on some routes to keep planes full and operations profitable.

“The traveling public needs to know that because of less flights, air fares will stay high, as well as obviously because of the fuel prices, and not replacing some of the flights as of yet for (Spirit) being out of the market,” he said.

Frank Holmes, CEO and CIO of U.S. Global Investors, said “the airplanes are still quite packed,” and that discount carriers like Frontier help support competition.

While Frontier is noted as one carrier seeking additional space, airport officials say they are also in discussions with other airlines within the Evans Terminal. They declined to identify them.

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The airport authority would also not provide a timeline for when Spirit’s former gates could be permanently reassigned, citing ongoing bankruptcy proceedings.

“WCAA utilizes gates as needed and will seek to lease those gates once the bankruptcy process concludes,” Strickland said.

How the airport is adjusting financially

Despite the loss of a carrier, the airport authority said it does not expect a financial loss from Spirit’s departure. The airline paid the airport authority about $26 million last year through terminal rents, landing fees and other charges, according to the airport authority.

“We routinely adjust to changing operational and industry conditions to meet revenue requirements and maintain financial stability,” Stickland said. “During our mid-year adjustment process, we will reduce expenses wherever possible and increase rates and charges paid by the airlines.”

Ozyurek said airport charges are tied to passenger and flight activity, including operations, terminal use and passenger volumes. He said passenger facility charges are based on the number of boarding and deplaning passengers, which means those fees continue as passengers shift to other airlines serving Detroit Metro.

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Delta Air Lines is expected to absorb much of Spirit’s former route demand in Detroit, while Frontier Airlines expands service on overlapping markets due to its existing operations at the airport, said Gerald Cook, an adjunct professor at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Worldwide Campus. The adjustment is likely to come through changes such as frequency increases and schedule shifts.

“I don’t think you’re going to see any major disruption or major change in Detroit,” he said.

Southwest Airlines said its current schedule is already optimized through the end of the year across its network based on demand, aircraft availability, staffing and operational reliability. That limits its ability to quickly add new flights, airline officials said.

The carrier said any expansion in one market would require reductions elsewhere, though it will continue monitoring Detroit Metro Airport for potential growth.

Avelo Airlines spokesperson Courtney Goff said the airline doesn’t have immediate plans to expand at Detroit Metro, but if they see an opportunity to expand, they’ll look into those options.

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“We’re always communicating with our airport partners on new opportunities,” Goff wrote in an email. “We just extended our schedule through the winter holiday season with seasonal returns for our DTW routes.”

Avelo has many of its existing routes already overlapping with Spirit’s former network but operating from more convenient secondary airports, Goff wrote. Instead of adding former Spirit routes, Avelo said it plans to increase flight frequency on current routes where demand supports it.

Travelers interviewed recently at Detroit Metro say they’re keeping an open mind about alternatives to Spirit.

Gabby Schriver, a 33-year-old from Oxford, was heading to Dallas May 22 with her sister and infant son for her childhood best friend’s wedding. She tried out Frontier Airlines for the first time as the ticket came as part of a bundled travel package booked through a third party.

Schriver said she likely would have avoided flying Spirit Airlines had it still been operating.

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“I guess I’m not surprised,” Schriver said of Spirit’s shutdown. “A lot of people have always complained about Spirit. I’ve not had the best experiences.”

She said she remains open to trying Frontier, though.

“Maybe Frontier will be great,” she said. “I’ve just never flown it.”

Schriver said she frequently flies Allegiant Airlines out of Flint Bishop Airport because of the convenience of smaller airports.

“We’ve always had a great experience with them,” she said.

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If cost were not a factor, Schriver said Delta would remain her top choice.

“I just feel safe when I fly Delta for some reason, and the staff has always been nice,” she said.

Jay Granberry was traveling to Dallas to visit family recently via Frontier. The Saginaw native, now living in Metro Detroit, said budget airlines like Spirit and Frontier have been options for him in the past.

“If I couldn’t get Southwest or American … I would get Frontier or Spirit,” he said. “I would get Spirit, because it’s cheaper, but now that Spirit isn’t in the conversation anymore, Frontier is definitely probably going to be one of the more frequented ones.”

Granberry said he was surprised Spirit Airlines closed because the carrier had been around for so long.

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“Spirit was not terrible, contrary to popular belief, in my opinion,” he said.

He said he would like to see United or American expand at Detroit Metro Airport, favoring each for “price and experience.”

“You get the middle, a medium of both,” he said. “You’re not sacrificing one for the other like a lot of times.”

Despite issues with Frontier in the past regarding longer layovers, Granberry said he is giving the airline another try as a low-cost replacement for Spirit.

“Let’s just hope Frontier lives up to them as far as their reputation,” he said.

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cwilliams@detroitnews.com



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