Editor’s note: If you cite the results of this poll, credit South Dakota News Watch and the Chiesman Center for Democracy, per copyright law and our republishing policy.

PIERRE, S.D. – With seven weeks until the June 2 primary, U.S. House Rep. Dusty Johnson is close to avoiding a runoff in the race to secure the GOP nomination for governor, according to a new poll sponsored by South Dakota News Watch and the Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota.

In the contests for U.S. House of Representatives and U.S. Senate, state Attorney General Marty Jackley and U.S. Sen. Mike Rounds have solid leads over their challengers.

The scientific survey of 500 registered Republicans, conducted April 7-11 by Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy, found Johnson leading the four-way contest for governor with 34% of likely GOP primary voters supporting his candidacy.

The other three candidates are effectively tied for second due to the margin of error being plus-or-minus 4.5%. State House Speaker Jon Hansen, of Dell Rapids, has 18% support from GOP voters, and Aberdeen businessman Toby Doeden and Gov. Larry Rhoden both have 17%. Roughly 14% of those surveyed were undecided.

South Dakota Election Voter Guide

Everything South Dakota voters need to know about statewide contests in the primary and general elections.

If no candidate receives at least 35% of the vote on the June 2 ballot, a runoff between the top two finishers will take place July 28. The winner of the contest will meet Democrat Dan Ahlers in the Nov. 3 general election.

Rhoden’s support drops; Hansen surges

While Johnson, who grew up in Pierre and lives in Mitchell, saw a 6-point increase from the News Watch/Chiesman poll conducted last October, Rhoden’s support fell 10 points.

Julia Hellwege, director of the Chiesman Center and USD associate professor in political science, said Rhoden’s association with his predecessor, former Gov. Kristi Noem, could be behind the drop in poll numbers.

“He has aligned himself closely with Noem. They worked closely together, and he continues to champion her and stand by her,” she said. “There’s a potential that has been a side effect.”

Rhoden served as lieutenant governor under Noem and became governor in January 2025 when President Donald Trump made her secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. He fired her last month after severe criticism.

Hellwege pointed out the poll found that Johnson even leads in West River, a stronghold for Rhoden, who is from Union Center east of Sturgis.

She said one candidate more than any other has been the main beneficiary of the declining support for the sitting governor.

“Anyone shifting from Rhoden is more likely to shift towards Hansen,” Hellwege said, noting that Hansen is a state lawmaker, like Rhoden was, who plays up his conservative Christian credentials.

Hellwege said in comparing the new poll results with those from last year, a certain pattern can be seen. That includes the surge in support for Hansen and Johnson, a decline in support for Rhoden, a stable level of support for Doeden and a lower number of undecided voters.

“My interpretation is many Rhoden voters in the last poll shifted to Hansen voters and the undecideds went to Johnson,” Hellwege said.

SD governor: Johnson in driver’s seat

Hellwege highlighted the extent to which the math favors Johnson.

“Even if all the undecided voters go to one of those second-place candidates, plus if you factor in the margin of error, they still would barely reach where Johnson is sitting right now,” Hellwege said.

Brad Coker, founder of Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy, ranked as one of the least-biased and most-factual pollsters, also believes Johnson is in a comfortable position.

“Johnson is moving into the clear front-runner status,” he said.

“People know him. People like him, and that’s probably why he’s ahead right now. Whether he can hold on to that will depend on what the other campaigns – particularly Hansen’s – are able to do in the coming weeks,” Coker told News Watch, pointing to the poll results that found Johnson has a 47% favorability rating, the highest of any of the candidates.

Coker said Hansen has the best chance to challenge Johnson not only because his candidacy has seen the biggest increase in support but also due to not many people knowing him – yet.

“Hansen’s name recognition is only 73%. He’s still got 27% of the voters who don’t know who he is, which I think gives him a much higher ceiling than Doeden and Rhoden,” Coker said. “That tells me Hansen is getting some traction.”

On the flip side, Doeden’s 35% unfavorable rating and high name recognition indicate his support has mostly peaked, Coker said.

“He has a higher negative rating than positive rating, which tells me he’s got a core group behind him, but his growth potential is far more limited, especially since he has 89% name recognition,” Coker said.

The poll was conducted after the four candidates met in the March 31 KELO-TV debate but before the April 13 SDPB and South Dakota News Watch forum.

US House: Jackley has comfortable lead

Since Johnson ran for governor, that opened up South Dakota’s only seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.

In that contest, Jackley – who is from Sturgis and previously served as U.S. attorney for the District of South Dakota – has a comfortable lead toward securing the GOP nomination.

According to the poll, he has 68% support from South Dakota Republican voters surveyed, well ahead of challenger James Bialota Jr., who has 12%, with 20% of respondents undecided.

“This primary is definitely in Jackley’s favor, even if all the undecideds move to Bialota,” Hellwege said.

The winner will face Democrat Nicole “Nikki” Gronli in the November general election.

US Senate: Incumbent Rounds ahead by large margin

Rounds – who’s from Pierre and was South Dakota’s governor from 2003 to 2011 – also enjoys a sizable lead over his challenger.

He received 66% support from GOP voters surveyed, compared to 18% for challenger Justin McNeal, with 16% of respondents undecided.

“The fact that McNeal, who is vastly outspent by Rounds, is able to get up to 18% is commendable. But at the same time, I don’t think there’s any expectation that Rounds will not be able to hold on to that seat,” Hellwege said.

The winner will take on Democrat Julian Beaudion in November.

Favorability poll results for all governor, House and Senate candidates

The News Watch/Chiesman poll also asked Republicans their opinions of the candidates. To see results for each person, click the arrow below and the tab for each section: overall, by gender, age and region where they’re from.

Coming Tuesday

Tuesday’s story will focus on South Dakota News Watch/Chiesman Center for Democracy poll results on the job performance rating South Dakotans give Gov. Larry Rhoden, Sen. John Thune and other elected officials. The story also includes voter thoughts on Noem’s time as DHS secretary and President Trump’s decision to fire her.

South Dakota News Watch is an independent nonprofit. Read, donate and subscribe for free at sdnewswatch.org. Contact politics and statehouse reporter Alexander Rifaat: 605-736-4396/alexander.rifaat@sdnewswatch.org.

Welcome to another edition of the FCS Football Central Recruiting Roundup.

As spring practice winds down, recruits are still continuing to get on campus to visit schools and meet with their coaching staff. I caught up with some of the latest prospects who received an offer from an FCS program after their visit.

Amarie King | 2027 | DB | 5’7″ 140 lbs | Case High School | Racine, WI

King received his latest offer from South Dakota on April 17 after speaking with defensive coordinator Billy Kirch.

“Coach Kirch told me bout the offer, and that conversation went well. He told me a lot about the school, and asked me what my family and parents do. He said that my film was amazing and that he wanted to offer me,” King said.

“My recruitment is going well, although it is a little stressful here and there, but I am really just being patient and trusting the process, and keep working.”

He has visits to South Dakota and Drake coming up. Last season, he finished with 44 tackles, eight pass breakups, and six interceptions for the Eagles.

Jayden Harris | 2027 | ATH | 6’2″ 170 lbs | Manteca High School | Manteca, CA

Harris picked up his latest offer from Montana State on Friday when he was in Bozeman for the Bobcats’ Junior Day, and meeting with cornerbacks coach Jordan Lee, defensive coordinator Bobby Daly, and head coach Brent Vigen.

“First, it was Coach Lee, then I had meetings with Coach Daly and Coach Vigen, who broke the news while we were talking. They want me to come in and play early. They like my versatility as a defensive back, and that’s why they offered me,” Harris said.

“The visit was cool! The snow was coming down, and the coaches still showed love. Recruiting is going well right now. Most schools that are in touch with me see something in me for sure, especially since I’m a zero-star athlete, so that’s love.  I feel like I’m the best DB in California, and my measurements and production speak for themselves.”

He also has offers from Idaho, Washington State, and Sacramento State. He has upcoming visits to Arizona State and New Mexico.

Last season, he finished with 63 tackles, 11 pass breakups, nine interceptions, six tackles for loss, two sacks, two forced fumbles, and two pick-sixes for the Buffaloes.

Maurice “MJ” Harrell | 2026 | DB | 6’1″ 170 lbs | Hutchinson CC | Hutchinson, KS

Harrell picked up his first Division I offer from Houston Christian on April 17 after he spoke with cornerbacks coach DeMarcus Coleman.

“Coach Coleman called and told me he liked what we saw from the videos I sent him, and that he wanted me to be a part of his program,” Harrell said.

Last season, he finished with 20 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, one sack, and a fumble recovery for the Blue Dragons. Mercyhurst, Division II UTPB, and Missouri Southern are some other schools he has been in contact with.

Jadhari Young | 2026 | WR | 6’1″ 200 lbs | De Anza College | Cupertino, CA

Young received his latest offer from Eastern Illinois on April 15 after speaking with wide receivers coach Tino Smith.

“Coach Smith called me, and we had a long and great conversation. He told me he believes in me and that he thinks I can be great under his coaching,” Young said. “My recruitment has been going great since I graduated two weeks ago. A lot of coaches have expressed a lot of interest in me.”

Young also has offers from Sacramento State, Prairie View A&M, and Chicago State. Last season, he hauled in receptions for 559 yards and seven touchdowns for the Mountain Lions. He was named a Golden Coast Conference First Team selection.

He will be taking his official visit to Eastern Illinois on April 24. Gardner-Webb, West Florida, Monmouth, Stony Brook, and UMass are some other schools he is hearing from.

AJ Moore | 2027 | RB | 5’9″ 200 lbs | College of Dupage | Glen Ellyn, IL

Moore received his first Division I offer from Lindenwood on April 17 after speaking with running backs coach Lane Lawson.

“Coach Lawson called and offered me. He just told me he’d be really excited to have me over and thinks I could be a part of something special with the program they got going over there,” Moore said.

Last season, he finished with 81 carries for 518 yards and five touchdowns, while adding nine receptions for 73 yards and two touchdowns for the Chaparrals, who won their fifth consecutive NJCAA Division III national championship. Moore is working on scheduling his official visit to Lindenwood.

Leshem Nyante | 2027 | OT | 6’5″ 265 lbs | Anna High School | Anna, TX

Nyante picked up his latest offer from Texas Rio Grande Valley on April 17 after he spoke with offensive line coach Jeff Bowen.

“Coach Bowen reached out this morning to officially extend the offer. It was a great talk, and he mentioned they really liked my film and how I would fit their system. So we are focused on building that relationship now,” Nyante said.

“I’m really grateful for how my recruiting process is unfolding so far. Things are definitely moving fast with spring ball right around the corner, and it’s been great seeing the increase in interest every week.”

He also has offers from Arkansas State, Division II Midwestern State, and East Central University. Old Dominion, Texas State, UTEP, and New Mexico are some other schools he is hearing from. Nyante will be taking an official visit to Arkansas State in June.

Matthew Lashley | 2027 | DB | 6’1″ 198 lbs | Riverside City College | Riverside, CA

Lashley received his latest offer from East Texas A&M on April 15 after speaking with safeties coach Luke Jaicks.

“Coach Jaicks called and offered me. He’s a great coach, and I would love to play for him,” Lashley said. “My recruitment is going well; it’s starting to heat up after spring ball.”

He also has an offer from Southern Utah. Last season, he finished with 14 tackles and two interceptions for the Tigers.

Follow FCS Football Central on social media for ongoing coverage of FCS football, including on X, Facebook, and YouTube.