Missouri State football vs South Dakota State: Scouting report, score prediction for Saturday

Missouri State football will play its final game as a member of the Missouri Valley Football Conference and as an FCS program when it hosts the two-time defending champion this weekend.

FCS No. 18 Missouri State (8-3, 6-1 MVFC) will host FCS No. 3 South Dakota State (9-2. 6-1 MVFC) on Saturday at 2 p.m. at Plaster Stadium. The game will be the Bears’ finale as they are ineligible to qualify for the postseason because of NCAA rules regarding their move to the FBS.

South Dakota State continues to be a national championship contender with their lone FCS loss this season coming Oct. 19 in a 13-9 loss to FCS No. 1 North Dakota State. The Jackrabbits also lost on opening day in a 44-20 defeat at FBS Oklahoma State.

Missouri State has an outside chance at still winning a share of the MVFC. The Bears would have to beat SDSU while requiring North Dakota State to lose to FCS No. 4 South Dakota.

South Dakota State football features star QB Mark Gronowski

SDSU senior quarterback Mark Gronowski had both power conference and large NIL offers after earning the Walter Payton Award last season. He opted to stay at South Dakota State to try and lead it to its third straight title.

Gronowski isn’t putting up the same numbers he did last year, averaging about 28 fewer yards while already surpassing his season total in interceptions in four fewer games, but he’s still among the FCS’ elite.

He’s a 62% passer and is a capable runner and hasn’t thrown a pick over his last four games.

SDSU football has an elite rushing attack

Ranked third in the FCS in rushing, the Jacks are averaging nearly 250 yards per game with four different backs gaining 50 or more yards per game.

South Dakota State doesn’t have a Joplin-area running back leading the team in rushing this year as it has in the past (Joplin’s Quin Renfro is redshirting after Isaiah Davis was drafted in the fifth round by the New York Jets). But Amar Johnson is getting his turn as the leadback after being an all-purpose weapon last year. He’s averaging just 77.5 yards, but is an explosive play waiting to happen.

The Jackrabbits continue to have one of the best offensive lines in the subdivision. Slowing this down will be a challenge for the Beas, having given up 215 or more rushing yards in three of the last four weeks, including a season-worst 364 yards to North Dakota State last week.

South Dakota State has the best defense in the FCS

Only ranked behind a pair of Pioneer and SWAC schools and a 4-6 Saint Francis team, it’s safe to say South Dakota State has the best defense in the subdivision, considering who it’s faced.

SDSU has a top-20 defense in every category and is first in points allowed, allowing just 12.7 points per outing. The Jacks haven’t given up more than 17 points in a game since the season’s first two weeks.

Score prediction: South Dakota State 34, Missouri State 17

Missouri State hasn’t been capable of stopping the run against the elite offensive lines it’s faced this year. South Dakota State might have the best ground game out of anyone the Bears have faced and that will be trouble heading into their final test.

South Dakota State will play this game motivated by potentially earning the No. 1 overall seed in the FCS Playoffs, hoping South Dakota can knock off North Dakota State. The Bison’s game starts an hour before the Bears-Jacks game, maybe opening the door for SDSU to rest some starters in the second half if they have the game put away.