FCS Playoffs: UC Davis vs South Dakota Preview and Prediction | Opta Analyst

The 2024 FCS playoffs have mostly played to form entering the quarterfinal round. Everybody’s chasing the national championship, including UC Davis and South Dakota as they meet in a 4-vs-5 showdown.

Montana State, North Dakota State and South Dakota State are the only FCS teams to hold the No. 1 ranking this season, and they’re seeded 1, 2 and 3, respectively, in the 2024 playoffs.

South Dakota and UC Davis have lurked right behind that trio of powers for much of the season, and they’re set to meet in a national quarterfinal on Saturday. The winner will advance to the semifinal round for the first time.

The eight highest seeds from a 24-team bracket have advanced to the quarterfinals. School host sites are utilized in the FCS playoffs until the national championship game on Jan. 6 at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas.

FCS Playoffs – Quarterfinal

No. 5 seed UC Davis (11-2) at No. 4 seed South Dakota (10-2)

Kickoff – 3 p.m. ET Saturday at the DakotaDome in Vermillion, South Dakota (ESPN+)

Series – South Dakota leads 4-2 (last meeting: South Dakota won 27-17 on Sept. 12, 2015)

Wins in FCS Playoffs – UC Davis: Illinois State (42-10); South Dakota: Tarleton State (42-31)

Coaches – UC Davis: Tim Plough (11-2, first season); South Dakota: Bob Nielson (52-47, ninth season; 238-127-1 overall)

3 Players to Watch – UC Davis: QB Miles Hastings (328 of 469, 4,148 yards, 35 TDs, 8 INTs), RB Lan Larison (277 carries, 1,425 yards, 17 TDs; 61 receptions, 842 yards, 6 TDs), LB David Meyer (113 tackles, 7.5 sacks, 4 INTs); South Dakota: RB Travis Theis (155 carries, 976 yards, 16 TDs; 24 receptions, 261 yards, 2 TDs), DE Mi’Quise Grace (58 tackles, 18 TFL, 9.5 sacks, 2 FF, 2 FR), S Dennis Shorter (63 tackles, 2 INTs, 10 PBU, 2 FF) 

Notable – Both teams are ranked in the FCS top 10 of scoring offense and total offense. UC Davis is fueled by Hastings, the FCS leader in passing yards, and Larison, the national leader in scrimmage yards per game (174.4) and all-purpose yards per game (180.2). Wide receiver Trent Tompkins is three receiving yards shy of the Big Sky runner-up having five players with 500+ each. But the Aggies have to account for USD’s stud pass rushers – Grace, the MVFC defensive player of the year for a conference tri-champion, and Nick Gaes (22 career sacks). Coyotes lefty QB Aidan Bouman (2,470 yards, 18 TDs, 2 INTs) has been well-protected by his offensive line, which has helped with them committing the second-fewest turnovers (six) in the FCS. USD has three combined kickoff and punt return TDs without giving up any, while UC Davis has surrendered a pair and not found the end zone.  

Up Next – The winner will play either No. 1 seed Montana State (13-0) or No. 8 seed Idaho (10-3) in a national semifinal on Dec. 21

Prediction – South Dakota 28, UC Davis 27

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