FCS Playoffs Semifinal Preview & Prediction: No. 4 South Dakota at No. 1 Montana State

No. 4 South Dakota travels to No. 1 Montana State in the semifinals of the 2024 FCS Playoffs. Kickoff is scheduled for Dec. 21 at 2:30 p.m. CT on ABC.

The winner will advance to the FCS National Championship game, where they will face the winner of No. 3 South Dakota State at No. 2 North Dakota State.

2024 FCS Playoff Bracket

2024 Prediction Record: 174-45
2022-23 Record: 207-75

Kickoff: 2:30 p.m. CT (ABC)
Line: Montana State (-8)
Series History: Montana State leads 2-0

Key Players: Montana State

Tommy Mellott (QB): 182-for-259 (70.3%), 2,430 Passing Yards, 28 Passing TDs, 2 INTs, 790 Rushing Yards, 12 Rushing TDs

Scottre Humphrey (RB): 177 Carries, 1,325 Rushing Yards, 7.5 YPC, 14 Rushing TDs

Adam Jones (RB): 155 Carries, 1,068 Rushing Yards, 6.9 YPC, 14 Rushing TDs

Brody Grebe (DL): 34 Total Tackles, 9 TFLs, 7.5 Sacks, 5 PBUs, 8 QBHs, 1 FF

McCade O’Reilly (LB): 64 Total Tackles, 8.5 TFLs, 3 Sacks, 3 PBUs, 6 QBHs, 1 FF

Key Players: South Dakota

Aidan Bouman (QB): 194-for-283 (68.5%), 2,723 Passing Yards, 19 Passing TDs, 4 INTs

Charles Pierre Jr. (RB): 163 Carries, 1,187 Rushing Yards, 7.3 YPC, 15 Rushing TDs

Travis Theis (RB): 173 Carries, 1,062 Rushing Yards, 6.1 YPC, 18 Rushing TDs, 305 Receiving Yards

Mi’Quise Grace (DL): 59 Total Tackles, 18 TFLs, 9.5 Sacks, 9 QBHs, 2 FFs, 2 FRs

Gary Bryant III (LB): 101 Total Tackles, 3 TFLs, 2 INTs, 3 PBUs, 1 FF

After exceeding expectations all season, South Dakota has a chance to shake up the national title race with an upset over Montana State, who enters the game as the only undefeated FCS program in the nation. The Coyotes are looking to make their first national title appearance at the FCS level, while the Bobcats have not won the title since 1984.

Everything starts with South Dakota’s ability to limit explosive plays from a dangerous Montana State offense. The Bobcats lead the nation in total offense and yards per play, averaging almost 500 yards per game this season. South Dakota has done an excellent job against the run, ranking No. 10 nationally in rushing defense. However, the Coyotes have not seen a rushing attack this talented. The Bobcats average over 300 yards per game, led by Scottre Humphrey with 1,325 yards and Adam Jones with 1,068 yards.

The Coyotes have held their first two postseason opponents under 100 rushing yards. Mi’Quise Grace and Nick Gaes can create havoc off the edge, combining for 29 tackles for loss and 18.5 sacks. Montana State’s offensive line has been dominant this season, featuring three players that earned All-American honors. The Bobcats allow a negative play on only 4.2% of all offensive snaps and have the lowest pressure rate in the postseason. The Coyotes will have to create some chaos at the line of scrimmage, which no other team has been able to do this season against the Bobcats.

Montana State’s offense may start with the rushing attack, but quarterback Tommy Mellott remains the biggest x-factor this weekend. He’s having the best season of his career, completing over 70% of his passes for 2,430 passing yards, 790 rushing yards, and 40 total touchdowns. South Dakota’s linebackers are extremely athletic and must contain Mellott in this game. Linebackers Gary Bryant III and Nate Ewell have combined for 175 total tackles, eight tackles for loss, and one sack.

South Dakota will also lean on an explosive rushing attack, which ranks third nationally in yards per carry. Charles Pierre Jr. and Travis Theis have combined for over 2,220 rushing yards and 33 rushing touchdowns. Montana State has held its past five opponents under 150 rushing yards, which should make this an interesting matchup in Saturday’s game. South Dakota’s offensive line is one of the best in the nation and has the size to challenge Montana State’s front seven.

Montana State has had a championship-level offense for multiple seasons, but the defense has failed to meet those expectations until this season. The Bobcats rank No. 10 nationally in total defense, holding opponents to 293.9 yards per game. This unit does an excellent job of generating pressure and creating negative plays. Brody Grebe and Kenneth Eiden IV are dangerous off the edge, combining for 17.5 tackles for loss and 14.5 sacks. This will be the ultimate test for the Bobcats as South Dakota’s offense presents a unique challenge.

Despite not losing an FCS game in regulation, South Dakota has continued to be doubted all season. The Coyotes have the talent to pull off the upset in Bozeman, but I have yet to see any major flaws in this Montana State team. The Bobcats have too many weapons and are led by arguably the most dynamic player in the nation. All this will be too much for the Coyotes to overcome as Montana State advances to Frisco.

Prediction: Montana State (31-21)

Behind The Numbers: 2024 FCS Playoffs Semifinals Preview
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2025 FCS-To-FCS Football Transfer Tracker
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2024 FCS Playoffs: Official Bracket, Schedule, Scores

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