Costs, benefits, and priority the latest update in Amtrak expansion to South Dakota

SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (Dakota News Now) – Possible Amtrak expansion to South Dakota is moving along, albeit slowly.

The Federal Railroad Administration’s Long Distance Service Study received its fourth and final update, painting a better picture of how much each of the 15 proposed routes would cost, what benefits they could bring in, and how the FRA is planning to prioritize each route.

The interest following the third update in February sparked a flurry of public comments. In the updated study, the FRA estimates that over 47,000 comments were received, 99 percent of those being in favor of expanding long-distance Amtrak service. Of comments mentioning specific routes, the Twin Cities to Denver route received around 300 comments alone.

For Dan Bilka, president of the advocacy group All Aboard Northwest, the comments show that nationwide, people are wanting to have passenger rail as a travel option more than ever. In South Dakota, that means bringing back a mode of transit that hasn’t been available in over 50 years.

“That just goes to show how much latent interest from the general public to not only to talk about passenger rail, but to actually see stuff move forward,” Bilka said.

MORE: Advocates: Proposed Amtrak service a big first step for South Dakota

Three major pieces of information came with the latest update. Those are conceptual service schedules, costs and benefits, and the prioritization of routes. It’s important to note that all of this information is only an estimate, and the FRA states that more studies would be needed to flesh out each route.

With the Twin Cities to Phoenix route, based off an average travel speed of 48 miles per hour which is what current long-distance Amtrak routes experience, it would take around 47 hours to travel from end to end. This route covers over 2,100 miles through 10 states. Travelers leaving St. Paul, Minnesota in the early morning can expect to be in Phoenix about two days later. In stops like Sioux Falls and Sioux City, no trains would arrive or depart between the hours of 11:00 p.m. and 5:00 a.m.

The Twin Cities to Denver route would see trains leave St. Paul in the early evening, arriving in Denver around 26 hours later. Most of the stops in South Dakota along the 1,143 mile route would be during the evening.

The study also now lists preliminary cost and benefit analysis studies for each route, although again, these should only be viewed as estimates.

The Twin Cities to Phoenix route would cost anywhere between $500-710 million in vehicle costs, $1.16-1.51 billion in station and maintenance facility costs, and $700-910 million in track upgrades. In total, the route could cost anywhere between $2.41-3.13 billion dollars. Additionally, it would cost between $64-91 million each year to operate.

The report also includes estimated benefits. Jobs supported by initial construction range from 30,900 to 40,200, with earnings ranging from $2.07-2.69 billion. Jobs then supported annually would range from 1,100 to 1,600, and annual earnings are estimated to come out between $59-84 million.

With the Twin Cities to Denver route across the entire state of South Dakota, vehicle costs are estimated to be $440-570 million, station and maintenance facilities could cost $1.29-1.68 billion, and track upgrades could cost anywhere from $4.49-5.83 billion. That total range comes to anywhere from $6.22-$8.08 billion. Additionally, it’s estimated to cost $56-80 million each year to run.

For estimated benefits on the route, initial construction could support 91,100 to 118,400 jobs, with earnings coming to $6.05-$7.86 billion. Annual jobs supported is estimated at 1,000 to 1,400, and annual earnings could range from $52-74 million.

MORE: Transportation Secretary throws cold water on South Dakota Amtrak expansion

Experts and advocates have pointed out in the past there are other benefits for travelers, and that public transportation often does not recover what it costs through tickets or tolls.

Bilka said those numbers are a good starting point in knowing how much it would cost to build out each route, but noted there’s still plenty of unknowns.

“When you look at what they’re just factoring today, which are just ‘passenger specific projects’ for upgrading the track to the classification needed for passenger rail, yes it looks significant. But they aren’t accommodating for what they’d have to do with the other routes, which are capacity projects, which on some of these other routes could be quite significant.

MORE: Considering economic pros and cons of potential passenger rail expansion

Bilka said the public benefits of having passenger rail available still outweighs the costs, and said the investment of that type of money could match the impact of what building the Intestate Highway System or each dam along the Missouri River could bring. It would also outnumber the total amount of funding the state has received in Special Transportation Circumstance grants over the years, about $27 million each year in lieu of having passenger rail access.

“There would be many times the rate of return on investment for the public input and the public value that it would bring to these projects and communities, which would be very significant and far outweigh the meager funding we’ve gotten through the STC grant program,” Bilka said.

The final big piece of information made available is how the FRA lists each route for prioritization. That takes into account the level of complexity for each route, the level of benefits, and level of cost. Scores can range from three to 15, with 15 being highest on priority.

The Twin Cities to Phoenix Route scored a nine, tied for fourth place. The Twin Cities to Denver route scored an eight, tied for tenth.

Bilka said while those routes rank in the middle of the pack, he said it doesn’t address the travel demand from each station along the route to another, rather from hub to hub, as South Dakota has a higher demand for its closer cities.

“That we have so much of a pull factor going up to the Twin Cities, and same West River down to Denver that way, but it’s really linking those two as one part of an integrated transportation network,” Bilka said. “Such as for both routes here through South Dakota, that we could look at what about starting with a simple phase of here in Sioux Falls up to the Twin Cities, and same out West River such as Rapid City through Denver.”

The final step from the FRA is to put together the final report based on its findings, and deliver that to Congress. It’s unknown when that will happen, but the FRA estimates it will happen still this year. Meanwhile, Bilka said it’s on them and hte public to voice their support of each route to members of Congress, as well as state and local leaders.

More on Amtrak Expansion to South Dakota

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– Thune weighs in on Amtrak expansion to South Dakota

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