Tennessee football CFP scenarios: Ohio State, Penn State or Texas in first round

Tennessee has a clearer picture of its place in the College Football Playoff, but there are still questions heading into selection Sunday.

Who will the Vols play in the playoff? And when and where will that first-round game be played?

It appears Ohio State, Penn State or Texas could be Tennessee’s first-round opponent.

On Saturday, No. 1 Oregon beat No. 3 Penn State 45-37 in the Big Ten title game. No. 5 Georgia beat No. 2 Texas 22-19 in overtime in the SEC title game.

Oregon (13-0) and Georgia (11-2) earned automatic first-round byes as top-4 seeds. Penn State (11-2) and Texas (11-2) dropped to the at-large pool, but it’s unclear where they’ll be seeded.

The College Football Playoff selections will be announced on Sunday (noon ET, ESPN).

Here are the projected seeds and matchup scenarios for Tennessee.

College Football Playoff projected seeds

There are five guaranteed spots for the five highest ranked conference champions. And then seven teams get at-large bids, based on their ranking in the CFP poll. The four highest ranked conference champions get a first-round bye.

There are 13 teams vying for 12 playoff spots. Either Alabama or SMU will get the final at-large spot. Tennessee has secured an at-large spot, but its seed hasn’t been announced.

• 1-4 seeds (conference champions with byes): Oregon, Georgia, Boise State plus Arizona State or Clemson
• 5-10 seeds (at-large teams, in no particular order): Texas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Tennessee, Indiana
• 11-12 seeds (in no particular order): Either Alabama or SMU (as at-large team); plus either Arizona State or Clemson (conference champion)
• Team left out: Either Alabama or SMU

Here’s why Tennessee could play at Ohio State

Last week, the CFP rankings projected No. 9 seed Tennessee (10-2) to play a first-round game at No. 8 seed Ohio State (10-2). That matchup could hold in the final bracket.

Ohio State has two top-10 wins (Penn State, Indiana), while Tennessee has one top-12 win (Alabama). That was a major factor in their seeding order. The selection committee will not flip their order because neither team played in a championship game.

Here’s why Tennessee could play at Penn State

Penn State (11-2) lost head-to-head at home to Ohio State in the regular season. And Penn State only made the Big Ten title game because of a strength-of-schedule tiebreaker over Indiana.

So if the selection committee compares them for seeding, Penn State could fall behind Ohio State. That would place Penn State at the No. 8 seed hosting No. 9 seed Tennessee.

Here’s why Tennessee could play at Texas

Texas (11-2) was No. 2 in the CFP ranking, and it lost a close SEC title game against Georgia. But its resume has major holes.

Texas does not have a CFP Top 25 win. Its best wins were over Texas A&M, Michigan and Florida – who each received Top 25 votes but didn’t make the AP Top 25 or US LBM Coaches Poll.

But Texas also doesn’t have a bad loss. Both of its losses were to Georgia.

So how far could Texas drop? If it falls to the No. 8 seed, it would host No. 9 seed Tennessee in Austin, Texas.

Here’s why Tennessee could host at Neyland Stadium

Texas and Penn State will drop after losing conference championship games. The only question is how far.

Penn State has only one CFP Top 25 win (Illinois). Texas has no CFP Top 25 wins.

The selection committee said it will include the conference title game results as part of its evaluations. But for Tennessee to get a home game, the committee would have to take away a projected home game from a conference runner-up because it lost in the championship game.

And here’s another obstacle to Tennessee hosting a first-round game. If Texas or Penn State dropped to the No. 9 seed, the committee essentially would be admitting that it had ranked them too high.

That’s why a Tennessee home game is plausible but not probable. It simply depends on the committee’s approach to dealing with conference title game losers.

When will College Football Playoff games be played?

The first round of the 12-team playoff begins with one game on Friday, Dec. 20 (8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN). The other three first-round games will be on Saturday, Dec. 21 at noon (TNT), 4 p.m. (TNT) and 8 p.m. (ABC/ESPN). 

Matchups will be announced during the CFP selection show with all first-round games at campus sites.

Quarterfinals will be at bowl sites: Fiesta Bowl (Dec. 31), Peach Bowl (Jan. 1), Rose Bowl (Jan. 1), Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1). Semifinals will be at the Orange Bowl (Jan. 9) and Cotton Bowl (Jan. 10). The national championship game will be on Jan. 20 in Atlanta.

Adam Sparks is the Tennessee football beat reporter. Email adam.sparks@knoxnews.com. X, formerly known as Twitter@AdamSparks. Support strong local journalism by subscribing at knoxnews.com/subscribe.

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