Predicting the 12-team College Football Playoff: Will Ohio State still get the Big Ten’s auto-bid?

COLUMBUS, Ohio — Bracketology at this point of the year typically centers around preseason expectations in college basketball. The new 12-team College Football Playoff has changed that.

Bracketology now applies to football.

The four-team CFP era has come to an end, giving the sport an expanded race for a national title.

Here is how we predict the 12-team field to look, including where Ohio State fits after its loss at Oregon.

Predicting the 12-team College Football Playoff

Note: Teams in bold earn automatic bids.

No. 1 Texas

No. 2 Ohio State

No. 3 Miami

No. 4 Iowa State

No. 5 Oregon

No. 6 Penn State

No. 7 Alabama

No. 8 Georgia

No. 9 Notre Dame

No. 10 Indiana

No. 11 Clemson

No. 12 Boise State

Predicting college football conference champions

The five highest-ranked conference champions earn an automatic bid.

In our projection, we expect Texas (SEC), Ohio State (Big Ten), Miami (ACC) and Iowa State (Big 12) to be the four top conference champs, meaning those teams earn a top-four seed and a bye.

Boise State will likely be the top-ranked Group of Five champion, giving the Broncos a bid as the final team in the field.

Predicting the College Football Playoff at-large bids

Oregon beat Ohio State on Saturday, giving the Ducks a clear path to the conference title game. However, ESPN’s College Football Power Index still gives the Buckeyes better odds to win the Big Ten.

If Oregon’s lone loss is to a team it beat, the Ducks should finish as the top at-large team.

Penn State will also be favored to win each of its remaining games outside of a Nov. 2 meeting with Ohio State. At 11-1, the Nittany Lions should finish at No. 6.

Texas has the clearest path to the SEC title, but the race for conference runner-up is foggy. Alabama, despite its struggles, has a win against Georgia, which could be important for tiebreaking purposes.

Both programs should get in, giving the SEC and Big Ten six of the top eight teams.

Notre Dame has responded well from its stunning loss against Northern Illinois, and the Fighting Irish will be favored in each of their remaining games.

The final two at-large bids are tougher to predict. Indiana, Tennessee, Clemson, Texas A&M and BYU sit between a 33-47% chance of making the CFP, according to ESPN.

We slot Indiana in because, like Penn State, the Hoosiers should be favored to win their remaining games outside of a meeting with Ohio State.

Clemson looked unconvincing in its Week 1 loss against Georgia, but if the Tigers finish 11-2 with losses against the Bulldogs and Miami, getting an at-large bid shouldn’t be an issue.