Ohio State vs. Nebraska score prediction by expert college football model

An important Big Ten football matchup kicks off on Saturday as No. 4 Ohio State returns home against Nebraska in college football’s Week 9 action. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

Ohio State fell to 2-1 in Big Ten play after a 1-point loss at Oregon and is back in the Horseshoe looking to build some confidence heading into another tough road date against Penn State next weekend with the team’s playoff hopes potentially hanging in the balance.

Nebraska skidded to a 2-2 mark in conference games after getting punched in the mouth by Indiana in a 56-7 decision and embarks on the second straight road game against a ranked conference opponent looking to make what would be one of the biggest upsets of the season.

What do the analytical models suggest for when the Buckeyes and Cornhuskers meet in this Big Ten clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Ohio State and Nebraska compare in this Week 9 college football game.

As expected, the models are siding strongly with the Buckeyes over the Cornhuskers this week.

SP+ predicts that Ohio State will defeat Nebraska by a projected score of 33 to 11 and to win the game by an expected margin of 22 points in the process.

The model gives the Buckeyes a strong 92 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 211-194-4 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage after going 31-27-1 (53.4%) last weekend.

Ohio State is a 25.5 point favorite against Nebraska, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 47.5 points for the game (Over -115, Under -105).

And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -7000 and for Nebraska at +2000 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take …

If you do, you’ll be in the minority of bettors who are taking the Cornhuskers this week, according to the latest spread consensus picks.

62 percent of wagers currently project that Ohio State will win the game and cover the spread in the process.

Nebraska is getting 38 percent of bets to either win the game in an upset, or more likely, to keep the final score under this generous line.

Ohio State has been 41.3 points better than its opponents when playing at home so far this season.

And the Buckeyes have been 19.3 points better than the opposition on average over its last three games overall.

Nebraska has averaged 15.5 points worse than its opponents when playing on the road in 2024.

And the Cornhuskers are averaging 8 points worse overall over the last three games, with last week’s 49-point loss at Indiana playing a big role in determining that average.

Most other analytical models are also favoring the Buckeyes over the Cornhuskers in this game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ohio State is projected to win the game in the overwhelming 96.5 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Nebraska as the expected winner in the remaining 3.5 percent of sims.

Ohio State is projected to be 29.5 points better than Nebraska on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Ohio State is second among Big Ten teams with a 77.2 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives the Buckeyes a win total prediction of 10.6 games this season.

Nebraska is expected to have an 85.3 percent chance at becoming eligible for a bowl game this year.

FPI gives the Cornhuskers a win total projection of 6.5 games in ‘24.

When: Sat., Oct. 26
Time: 12 p.m. ET | 11 a.m. CT
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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