Michigan basketball vs. Ohio State prediction: Can U-M make it 6 straight wins?

• Michigan men’s basketball team sits atop the Big Ten standings but faces a tough road test against rival Ohio State.
• The game holds extra significance as Michigan shooting guard Roddy Gayle Jr. transferred from Ohio State last year.
• Ohio State, while possessing a losing conference record, has notable wins against Purdue and Kentucky.

It’s getting toward crunch time in the men’s basketball regular season and the Wolverines remain in the thick of it.

To get more specific, No. 17 Michigan (19-5, 11-2 Big Ten) isn’t just in the fight, but has the upper-hand, currently sitting alone atop the Big Ten standings by a half game over Purdue, which U-M just beat 75-73 at home on Tuesday.

That said, U-M may be winners of five in a row, however there’s no rest for the weary, as the Wolverines schedule remains loaded. Up next, rival Ohio State (15-10, 7-7) on the road at Schottenstein Center in Columbus. While the game is one that’s always circled on the calendar, this year it has additional meaning as shooting guard Roddy Gayle Jr. transferred from OSU to Michigan last April.

He spoke at length with the Free Press earlier this week about his expected return and all of the emotions that come along with it. Friday afternoon, he met with the rest of the media, and doubled-down on what he’d told the Freep just days prior.

BRING IT ON: Michigan basketball’s Roddy Gayle Jr. has been waiting 10 months for Ohio State boos

“For me, it’s more about bragging rights,” Gayle said of the importance of the contest individually. “To be able to play against some of my best friends. Hopefully, we can get a W.”

‘Be prepared for it’

Nimari Burnett and Will Tschetter tried to tell most of the new comers about the physicality of the Big Ten, but it didn’t quite work. U-M had to get punched in the mouth by Purdue on the road before the message truly took hold.

This time around, Burnett believes his teammates are heeding some of the warnings he’s given about going to OSU.

“Nothing that I remember verbatim,” Burnett said Friday at Crisler Center. “I do remember it warranted a reaction. One time, against Ohio State, I don’t remember what was exactly said but I think it was along the line of family members. And that was like ‘alright bro, you crossin’ the line’ … but yeah, I told the guys to be prepared for it.”

As for the Buckeyes as a group, it’s an underrated team whose record doesn’t tell the full story. Jake Diebler’s squad, while just 7-7 in the league, has a road win at Purdue as well as a 20-point spanking of Kentucky earlier this year. Unlike Michigan, OSU has been on the wrong end of tight games in the league, with three losses by two points or less in the Big Ten just since the turn of the calendar.

Though Michigan enters play at No. 22 according to KenPom and though its record is a full four games better than Ohio State, the Buckeyes aren’t far behind at No. 29 overall according to KenPom, ranked in the top 30 both in offensive efficiency (No. 29) and defensive efficiency (No. 30).

Bruce Thorton, Gayle Jr.’s former roommate, is the “head of the snake” according to assistant coach Justin Joyner, he leads the team at 17.3 points per game. But Devin Royal, a big man averaging 13.5 points and 7.5 rebounds, is also a problem, as is the backcourt duo of John Mobley Jr. (13.4 points) and San Diego State transfer Micah Parrish (12.5 points).

“They’re a really good team with really good personnel,” Joyner said Friday. “They’ve got really good guard play, obviously. Bruce Thorton is a special player … (Mobley) is a gamer and then Micah Parrish … winning DNA, an elite shooter … so their back court provides a lot of potential problem and their front court knows who they are.”

Keeping the focus

As for Gayle, there is absolutely no question about the reception he’s going to get on Sunday.

He said he received death threats as well as many nasty DMs, but his former head coach hopes that doesn’t happen this weekend − he feels there are too many things for his team and fanbase still to focus on.

“I trust that we’ll operate with class because Roddy gave his all when he was here,” Diebler recently said. “Ohio State was important to him. I think the game needs to be about the rivalry and the game. It doesn’t need to be about Roddy Gayle.”

That said, people are people, so naturally, this game will be about Gayle Jr. Even when Andrew Dakich, son of former IU player and long time color commentator Dan Dakich, transferred from U-M to OSU back in 2017 as a rather irrelevant reserve guard, he still received vitriol.

Gayle, on the other hand, led OSU in scoring last year. Now, he’s struggling in Ann Arbor with his shooting − just 1 of 20 on 3-pointers the past 10 games − and there’s little question the fans are going to remind him of that.

“Not as much as it’s about to be,” Gayle laughed when asked if he himself has ever specifically been boo’d in an away arena before. “But I mean, normally I’m pretty good at tuning it out. … Just try to do as much as I can to help my team win.”

Prediction

Michigan has toughened up since its trip to West Lafayette, increasing its physicality and finding a slightly tweaked rotation that’s paid dividends early. That said, the Wolverines have still been in five straight games that have been decided in the final two minutes of play, and no team on earth, no matter how talented, can win those every single time. U-M had the juice of the crowd behind it on Tuesday, but a rivalry game against a team that could use a signature win to solidify its NCAA Tournament seeding, well unfortunately for U-M, there will be no chance to troll with “just like football.” The pick: Ohio State 74, Michigan 71

Tony Garcia is the Michigan Wolverines beat writer for the Detroit Free Press. Email him at apgarcia@freepress.com and follow him on X at @RealTonyGarcia.