First and 10: Penn State brings Ohio State, Ryan Day now-or-never game earlier than expected

The finish line hasn’t changed for the best team money can buy.

But hear me out: what if national championship or bust at Ohio State barely scratches the first week of November for embattled coach Ryan Day?

What if Ohio State’s all-in, $41 million gamble on the 2024 season ends this weekend in State College, Pennsylvania, long before the national championship game on January 20, 2025?

I don’t want to throw everything sideways before we even sniff the Michigan game, or the Big Ten championship game, or the College Football Playoff, but Ohio State and Day are staring down the barrel right now.

If Ohio State can’t beat Penn State Saturday in a top-five heavyweight game, Day won’t make it to 2025. And Ohio State will have wasted $41 million — on this season alone. 

Because if Penn State beats Ohio State, the CFP resume for the Buckeyes will consist of — in a perfect, win-out, 10-victory scenario — a defeat of suddenly surging Indiana. And nothing else.   

All for the cool price of a $20 million player roster, and a coaching staff with a combined salary of $21.4 million. That’s $41.4 million — $20 million for players, $10 million for Day’s annual contract, and $11.4 million for assistant coaches.

Hey kids, you too can beat Akron, Western Michigan, Northwestern and a steady diet of nothing, all for the low, low price of $41 million!

In other words, Ohio State is one loss away from a rate of return that rivals new Coke.

In all of two months.

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2. Trust your process

The strangest part of this all-in moment at Ohio State – from the jump – was Day abandoning everything that made he and the program unique. 

All in the name of beating Michigan.

No one in college football coaches quarterbacks and the passing game better than Day. No one develops offenses, and recruits elite players to those offenses, and stresses defenses quite like Day since he arrived in Columbus in 2017 as Urban Meyer’s offensive coordinator.

Before last season’s step back with Kyle McCord, Day’s quarterbacks were averaging 41 touchdown passes a season. Forty-one! 

But once Michigan won three in a row in the bitter series, once the Wolverines became the last Big Ten team to win a national title, Day buckled to pressure, hired his former coach and mentor and changed the offense. 

He wanted to be more physical, and wanted to run the ball and control the clock and — as crazy as this sounds — be more like Michigan. So he hired Chip Kelly away from UCLA, made him offensive coordinator and told him he wanted physicality. Period.

Then Ohio State spent millions to lure elite running back Quinshon Judkins from Ole Miss, center Seth McLaughlin from Alabama and quarterback Will Howard — a willing, dangerous runner — from Kansas State. 

Fast forward to last weekend’s four-point win over Nebraska in Columbus: the Buckeyes rushed for 64 yards on 31 carries. The offensive line has underachieved, and was affected earlier this month by the season-ending injury to tackle Josh Simmons.

In four Big Ten games, Ohio State is averaging 148.3 yards per game.  In nine Big Ten games last season, Ohio State averaged 139.4. And now Day is talking about the need to push the ball downfield in the pass game.

Like he has done all along since 2017.

3. Ohio State’s all-in moment, The Epilogue

This isn’t just about Day and Ohio State and the pressure to win. If Ohio State can’t beat Penn State, the CFP selection committee suddenly joins the pressure-filled chat. 

That means The General — real, live former Lieutenant General and CFP director Rich Clark — and his selection committee will be eyeballing Ohio State through a unique lens.

The Buckeyes are clearly one of the three most talented teams in the nation. Ohio State is a mega television brand.

Can you really have your first 12-team playoff, with all the hype and hoopla it brings, without Ohio State?

The first CFP poll is six days away, and a potential two-loss Ohio State — with losses in both of its most difficult games — would have no business in the top 12. But is there any doubt the Buckeyes will be there? 

More problematic for the CFP: while a loaded SEC beats up each other over the final month of the season, while the Big 12 and ACC could each have unbeaten teams in their championship games (more on that later), Ohio State will finish the season with games against Purdue, at Northwestern, surprising Indiana (who also hasn’t beaten anyone) and underachieving Michigan.

Woof. 

Ohio State can end this meltdown scenario in an all-or-nothing season by beating Penn State, which could be without starting quarterback Drew Allar (knee).

Or it could lose to the Lions, and need the CFP selection committee to save its season. 

And Day’s job. 

4. Contender or pretender?

We’ve reached November, and it’s now time to break out the tried and true college football argument of “who have they beaten?”

Penn State (7-0) 

The good: Lions are 7-0 for the first time since 2019.

The bad: The combined record of West Virginia, Bowling Green, Kent State, Illinois, UCLA, Southern California and Wisconsin is 25-30. 

Iowa State (7-0)

The good: The last time the Cyclones started a season 7-0 was 1938.

The bad: The combined record of North Dakota, Iowa, Arkansas State, Houston, Baylor, West Virginia and Central Florida is 29-27. 

Indiana (7-0)

The good: Hoosiers are 8-0 for the first time since 1967.

The bad: The combined record of Florida International, Western Illinois, UCLA, Charlotte, Maryland, Northwestern, Nebraska and Washington is 26-37. 

Pittsburgh (7-0)

The good: The Panthers are 7-0 for the first time since 1982.

The bad: The combined record of Kent State, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Youngstown State, North Carolina, California and Syracuse is 25-31.   

Clemson (6-1)

The good: Won six in a row since a Week 1 blowout loss to Georgia.

The bad: The combined record of Appalachian State, North Carolina State, Stanford, Florida State, Wake Forest and Virginia is 19-29.

5. The Weekly Five

The five most impactful games of November. 

1. Tennessee at Georgia, Nov. 16.

2. Ohio State at Penn State, Nov. 2.

3. Texas at Texas A&M, Nov. 30

4. Kansas State at Iowa State, Nov. 30

5. Clemson at Pittsburgh, Nov. 16

6. An NFL scout’s take on East Carolina CB Shavon Revel Jr.

An NFL scout analyzes a draft eligible player. The scout requested anonymity to protect the team’s draft preparation. 

“You’ve got a unique situation. He tore his ACL in September, and will be probably a couple of months from a full recovery during the draft. Before the injury, you could make the argument that he was the best cornerback in the draft. He’s 6-feet-3 and long and physical. He’s a flat-out burner. Everyone heals differently, and every ACL injury is different. How early in the first round do you take him? You might see someone take him in the first 16 picks. He’s that talented when completely healthy.”

7. Power Play: Notre Dame enters the field

This week’s CFP power poll and four on the outside, and one big thing.

1. Georgia: How many teams can go on the road and play the No.1 team, throw three interceptions, and win by 15? A hint: one.

2. Oregon: This Michigan game could get dicey if the Wolverines can slow tempo with its power-run game.

3. Miami: The final month: Duke, at Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, at Syracuse. If Canes aren’t 12-0, something has gone very wrong.

4. Brigham Young: Two week to prepare for the Holy War against the worst Utah team since the early 2000s.

5. Ohio State: Beat Penn State, and likely get another shot at Oregon in the Big Ten championship game. 

6. Texas: Open week gives QB Quinn Ewers more time to completely heal from core injury. 

7. Penn State: Oregon beat Ohio State with an efficient pass game. That might be a problem for Penn State, with or without injured QB Drew Allar. 

8. Tennessee: Get better in the pass game against Kentucky and Mississippi State — to get ready for Georgia.  

9. Texas A&M: A dangerous spot this week at South Carolina, which can rush the quarterback and hurry decisions (see: turnovers). 

10. Notre Dame: No other way to say it: can’t lose again and reach the CFP.

11. Indiana: A dangerous spot for the Hoosiers on the road against improving Michigan State. 

12. Boise State: One of CFB’s overlooked and critical players: QB Maddux Madsen, all 5-feet-10 of him.  

13. Iowa State: When QB Behren Morton is on, Texas Tech is as dangerous as any team in the Big 12.

14. Clemson: We’ll have a better idea of Clemson (and Miami) after Louisville rolls into Death Valley.

15. Kansas State: Wildcats don’t necessarily do anything really well, but are 3-0 in one-possession games. 

16. Pittsburgh: The goal: affect electric SMU QB Kevin Jennings. Duke did it (3 INTs), and still lost last week. 

8. Mail bonding: Miami looks like Michigan, circa 2021

Matt: Do we really know how good Miami is? Will we know even if they’re 13-0 after running through the ACC? — David Drake, Orlando. 

David:

Miami looks a lot like 2021 Michigan: a young and talented team figuring out a championship run for the first time in years. It doesn’t mean the Canes play like Michigan (they don’t), but it does mean they can cause problems for anyone. 

That Michigan team lost a game in late October, and hadn’t beaten a ranked team until the last game of the regular season when it finally broke an eight-game losing streak to Ohio State. 

The difference between that young Michigan team and Miami: Canes quarterback Cam Ward. He’s so dynamic and such problem for defenses, he can change games with one rare throw. 

Michigan had a caretaker (Cade McNamara) at the most important position on the field, and it showed in the CFP semifinal blowout loss to Georgia. With Ward, Miami won’t get blown out by anyone this season.  

9. Numbers game

8. We’re not that far from having a championship Saturday where all eight power conference teams playing on the last weekend of the regular season are locks to make the CFP — win or lose.

But all four conference championship games in the SEC, Big Ten, ACC and Big 12 would still have significant impact on the 12-team CFP. Why? Seeding. 

Winners earn first-round byes, and one or more losers could fall far enough in the final CFP rankings (behind at-large SEC and Big Ten teams) and not host first round games.

How’s that for a day of importance?

The narrative that championship games will lose drama with the 12-team field isn’t remotely a reality. If anything, they’ve become the football version of conference basketball tournaments that lead to overall NCAA tournament seeding ― and the sweet symphony of controversy.

10. The last word: Army’s CFP hopes

If you think Florida State had an argument to play in last year’s CFP, wait and see the angst if Army is 13-0 and American Conference champions.

The Cadets would be unbeaten in a less competitive conference than Boise State, and would have a better win (vs. Notre Dame) than the Broncos. 

But watch the CFP poll closely. Boise State will be the highest-ranked Group of Five team in next Tuesday’s first poll of the season. Army, whose combined opponent record is 18-35, will more than likely be the second — but much lower.

All it will take is a win over Notre Dame in Yankee Stadium on Nov. 23 to move Army to the No.12 position in the CFP poll — no matter what Boise State does. 

Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.