College football Week 13 picks against the spread: OSU-Michigan, Alabama-Auburn and more

It’s Thanksgiving week, also known as rivalry week if you’re a college football fan. For many teams, this is the last game of the season. And with so many rivalry games on the schedule, it’s no stretch to say that quite a few of these matchups mean more.

That’s especially the case for teams that are still vying for bowl eligibility or bigger stakes, such as a spot in a conference championship game. There also are those teams looking to maintain their position in the top four of the College Football Playoff rankings.

To that end, there’s no bigger contest this week than The Game on Saturday afternoon. Once again, the annual clash between Ohio State and Michigan will carry more weight besides deciding the Big Ten East champion. And the Wolverines’ sign-stealing scandal only adds more spice to this already heated rivalry, even if Jim Harbaugh won’t be on the sidelines with his team.

The only other top-25 matchup is a huge game out west. Oregon State and Oregon will renew their longstanding in-state rivalry in Eugene. The Ducks can book a rematch against undefeated Washington in the Pac-12 Championship Game with a win at home while an upset by the Beavers keeps the door open for Arizona. The surprising ‘Cats will head to Tempe to face Arizona State for the Territorial Cup.

The Big Ten and Pac-12 are two of the six conferences that have yet to finalize their championship game matchups. The Big 12 is the most unsettled. Texas is in the driver’s seat for one of the spots, only needing a win at home over Texas Tech. Next up are Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Kansas State. All three teams are tied in conference play at 6-2 and none of them face each other this weekend.

In the Group of 5, the American Athletic Conference offers a “win and you’re in” situation between Tulane and UTSA with SMU also looking to finish the regular season undefeated in conference play. The Mountain West is arguably the toughest conference to figure out but the good thing is that the four teams battling for the two spots in the title game are playing each other – UNLV at San Jose State and Air Force at Boise State.

In the Sun Belt, Troy has already won the West and will face Coastal Carolina, Appalachian State or Old Dominion. Coastal controls its destiny but takes on 10-1 James Madison as a significant underdog.

In addition to Ohio State and Michigan, Washington (vs. Washington State), Georgia (at Georgia Tech), Florida State (at Florida) and Liberty Flames (at UTEP) are trying to finish off 12-0 regular seasons.

In particular, the Sunshine State battle in the Swamp has become more intriguing following the leg injury suffered by FSU QB Jordan Travis. The Gators still need one more win to become bowl eligible. That means, an upset could determine the postseason plans for both teams as well as impact the playoff picture. What more could you ask for in rivalry week?

Kickoff times are Eastern. Rankings are from the CFP rankings. All odds are from BetMGM.

No. 12 Ole Miss at Mississippi State — Thursday 7:30 p.m. on ESPN

The Egg Bowl is a Thanksgiving tradition that typically delivers close games, although the odds say that may not be the case this year. The Rebels are favored by double-digits on the road. Four of the past six meetings have been decided by one score.

On paper, the Rebels are the much better team. Ole Miss is 9-2 and still in the mix for a New Year’s Six bowl. Meanwhile, Mississippi State recently fired coach Zach Arnett and is 5-6, playing to make a bowl for the 14th straight season.

The offense has been the main problem for the Bulldogs, which are second from the bottom in the SEC in points per game (23.2). Mississippi State broke a three-game losing streak with a 41-20 win against Southern Miss last week. The Bulldogs had been held under 14 points in the previous four games before that.

Ole Miss’ offense hasn’t had those same struggles. The Rebels are a top-20 scoring offense in the country (36.5 points per game) and only Alabama and Georgia have held Ole Miss below 27 points.

Ole Miss is looking for its second 10-win season in the past three years, something the program hasn’t accomplished since 1962.

No. 17 Iowa at Nebraska — Friday noon on CBS

Should you choose to begin your post-Thanksgiving college football journey with the Big Ten matchup between Iowa and Nebraska, don’t expect to jump out of your seats often unless you prefer low-scoring defensive bouts. With the listed points total in the mid-20s at BetMGM, that number is getting more attention than the spread, which favors Nebraska at home.

Nebraska has a chance to do something it hasn’t done since 2016: make a bowl game. Such a feat would be rewarding for Matt Rhule in his first season as coach, but surely far less than what he, the players and the fanbase would strive for moving forward. The Huskers have had three chances to reach six wins and bowl eligibility but have lost three in a row. Nevertheless, a bowl berth and a rivalry game win would solidify the belief that the Huskers are heading in the right direction.

For all of the attention given to Iowa’s offensive struggles, Nebraska is right there with them. Iowa averages 18.5 points per game, the third-lowest among Power 5 schools (Arizona State, Michigan State). Nebraska is next-lowest at 18.7 points per game. The Huskers have tried a number of quarterbacks this year, with sophomore Chubba Purdy getting the start last week at Wisconsin.

The Hawkeyes are no strangers to a low over/under. Nine of their 11 games this season closed with projected points totals under 40, and all but one of those games failed to hit the over. Attribute such statistics to many lowly offensive outputs and outstanding defensive efforts along the way — a formula that’s led the Hawkeyes to a 9-2 record. Iowa does have the worst passing offense in the Big Ten, tallying just 126.1 passing yards per game.

Production like that is why the under has hit in six straight Iowa games. Both teams are also allowing fewer than 20 points per game.

No. 16 Oregon State at No. 6 Oregon — Friday 8:30 p.m. on FOX

The final chapter in the Pac-12 of the Oregon-Oregon State rivalry is upon us as the Ducks near their departure to the Big Ten. The Beavers will attempt to leave Oregon with a parting gift by potentially spoiling the Ducks’ postseason plans. However, the Ducks are favored by more than two touchdowns.

Oregon-Oregon State always has meaning, but no recent game has had the implications this one does. Oregon could kiss its College Football Playoff hopes goodbye with a loss, and could also miss out on the Pac-12 title game if Arizona beats Arizona State. Oregon State, No. 16 in the latest CFP rankings, still has a shot at a New Year’s Six bowl with a win.

Oregon hasn’t lost at home all year, but this is a rivalry game — anything can happen. The Beavers won last and have won two of the last three matchups, but the Ducks own seven straight home wins against Oregon State.

Can Oregon State slow another Heisman-hopeful quarterback in Bo Nix as it did last week against Washington’s Michael Penix Jr.? The Beavers held the Huskies scoreless in the second half, but still lost 22-20 in rainy conditions. Or will Nix ignite Oregon’s offense yet again and put another bullet point on his Heisman resume?

Oregon is 9-2 against the spread this season.

No. 2 Ohio State at No. 3 Michigan — Saturday noon on FOX

Ohio State heads to the Big House to face off against bitter rival Michigan, the 13th time they meet with both teams ranked in the AP top five. Michigan is favored for the first time in five years, but not by much.

Only one team will come out of the game still undefeated, and Michigan is looking to make it three straight wins versus Ohio State for the first time since 1995-1997. The biggest story in college football and possibly all of sports is the sign-stealing scandal that will keep Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh off the sideline due to a three-game suspension levied by the Big Ten.

The game features two of the most dominant defenses in the nation. Michigan and Ohio State are the only two teams holding their opponents to fewer than 10 points per game (Michigan at 9.0 and OSU at 9.3). But Michigan is one of four teams ranked in the top 12 in scoring offense (38.3) and scoring defense. Ohio State is ranked a respectable 24th in the nation in scoring offense with 33.6 points per game.

Michigan’s hopes for a victory are likely riding with running back Blake Corum. Ohio State gives up the fewest passing yards per game, but has been a bit more generous on the ground. The Buckeyes give up 108.5 rushing yards per game, but have only allowed three rushing touchdowns on the season. Corum comes into the game with 20 touchdowns and 880 yards on the ground.

Even with Heisman Trophy candidate and likely top five draft pick (and former high school teammate) Marvin Harrison Jr. at his disposal, quarterback Kyle McCord’s inconsistent play has been a source of frustration for Buckeye fans all year. He’s thrown for more than 300 yards thrice this season, so they don’t need McCord to carry the team to victory. The Buckeyes will need to make some plays, though and avoid turnovers.

Meanwhile, J.J. McCarthy’s stock has decreased slightly in recent weeks. The Michigan quarterback didn’t attempt a pass in the second half against Penn State and was 12-for-23 for 141 yards with an interception last week at Maryland. Plus, leading wide receiver Roman Wilson got hurt at Maryland and his status for this game is unclear.

No. 8 Alabama at Auburn — Saturday 3:30 p.m. on CBS

In college football’s rivalry week, the Iron Bowl is among the best rivalries in the sport. The Alabama-Auburn rivalry renews for its 88th edition this Saturday as the Crimson Tide roll into Auburn as road favorites.

Auburn is a tough team to figure out. Are the Tigers the team that lost as a 25-point favorite at home vs. New Mexico State a week ago? Or are they the team that beat Arkansas by 38 the week before as a two-point underdog? The Tigers are an inconsistent team. Part of their inconsistency comes from their lack of a passing attack, which is the SEC’s least productive (162.9 yards per game). Being unable to move the ball through the air is always troublesome, but even more so for Auburn as it takes the field against one of the better and more complete defenses the conference offers.

No matter how disappointing Auburn was a week ago, Nick Saban and his Crimson Tide know that a rivalry game has a unique way of resetting the playing field. Rivalry game aside, Alabama is still chasing a potential spot in the College Football Playoff. They’ve won four straight by an average of 28 points as Jalen Milroe and the offense have hit another gear, one that’ll be a challenge for Auburn to contain.

Washington State at No. 4 Washington — Saturday 4 p.m. on FOX

The Apple Cup is surviving Washington’s move to the Big Ten, with news of the rivalry being renewed until at least 2028, but this will be the final one for the foreseeable future that is a conference game. The undefeated Huskies are massive favorites in this one.

Washington is coming off a tough game at Oregon State, a game in which the Huskies won despite not scoring in the second half. The Huskies have already secured a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game, but are still in the thick of the College Football Playoff race. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is also still in the Heisman race, although he has fallen behind Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix in the latest odds.

The Huskies are averaging nearly 40 points per game and Washington State has allowed 35 or more points five times this season. This could be a shootout and the total being in the upper 60s signifies that.

Cougars quarterback Cam Ward has 30 touchdowns (22 passing, eight rushing) on the season and could keep Wazzu in this if it turns into a shootout. It’s a stretch to think the 5-6 Cougars could pull of the upset, but the Cougars won the last time these teams met in Seattle, and it wasn’t close (40-13).

No. 5 Florida State at Florida — Saturday 7 p.m. on ESPN

Two of the more prestigious programs are set to collide during rivalry week. Florida State will try to battle adversity as the Seminoles hit the road to take on in-state rival Florida. The undefeated Seminoles are favored by about a touchdown.

The Seminoles are one of the handful of undefeated national championship contenders remaining, but are only touchdown favorites against a team with a losing record. Why? Because there’s not many things that can change a team like an untimely injury at quarterback.

FSU star quarterback Jordan Travis suffered a left leg injury last week and is out for the season. Fourth-year junior Tate Rodemaker will have benefited from his extended snaps last week against North Alabama, but is still far less experienced and proven than Travis, who had 27 touchdowns (20 passing, seven rushing) this year.

Florida also will have a backup quarterback in after Graham Mertz got hurt at Missouri last week. Freshman Max Brown led two scoring drives in the fourth quarter after entering the game in the third quarter. The other side of the ball has been more of a problem. The Gators are on a four-game losing streak in which they have failed to hold an opponent under 33 points.

FSU won last year in Tallahassee, but the Gators won the previous three meetings in the rivalry, including the last two in Gainesville.

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(Photo of TreVeyon Henderson: Jason Mowry / Getty Images)