Behind the AP Top 25 ballot: 10 thoughts on Ohio State-Michigan, USC’s rise, Vols’ fall

Rivalry Week has arrived, and the stakes might be excessive as school soccer’s common season reaches its conclusion. Earlier than the most recent Faculty Soccer Playoff rankings on Tuesday, let’s dive into the AP Prime 25, the way it compares to my poll and the historic context for No. 3 Michigan at No. 2 Ohio State.

1. Saturday got here so near true chaos, however the prime 4 managed to remain intact. Georgia beat Kentucky 16-6 and continues to be No. 1 (with 62 of 63 first-place votes, together with mine). Ohio State escaped Maryland 43-30 and continues to be No. 2 (with one first-place vote). Michigan kicked a discipline objective to beat Illinois and keep No. 3, and TCU kicked a discipline objective to beat Baylor and keep No. 4.

Although two AP No. 5s (Clemson, which was No. 4 within the CFP, to Notre Dame and now Tennessee to South Carolina) have misplaced to unranked groups on the time of the sport, this may be the primary season since 2013 by which no AP top-four staff loses to an unranked opponent. That’s except TCU loses to Iowa State, Georgia loses to Georgia Tech or Ohio State/Michigan loses the Large Ten title recreation.

2. Ohio State-Michigan is right here. It’s the No. 2 Buckeyes internet hosting the No. 3 Wolverines, becoming a member of Georgia-Tennessee on Nov. 5 as AP top-three matchups this season. It’s the primary time since 2011 (LSU-Arkansas, LSU-Alabama) that there have been two AP top-three matchups in a single common season. Earlier than that, it most just lately occurred in 2006, 2000, 1993 and 1991. Courting again to 1936, that is the twelfth common season that has featured a number of top-three matchups, with essentially the most being 4 in 1943 and three in 1945.

3. The Michigan-Ohio State rivalry is accustomed to this sort of highlight. For the reason that AP ballot started in 1936, the Large Ten’s marquee rivalry leads the nation in most matchups of ranked groups, of top-10 groups and of top-five groups.

It’s the forty eighth time each the Wolverines and Buckeyes are ranked for his or her recreation, six greater than Oklahoma–Texas. It’s the twenty fifth time each are within the prime 10, seven greater than Notre Dame-USC and Nebraska-Oklahoma, and the twelfth time each are within the prime 5, two greater than Oklahoma-Texas. The 2006 and 2016 Ohio State wins are the one occasions it’s been a top-three matchup.

Ohio State is 7-3-1 when each are ranked within the prime 5. The final winner of a top-five matchup within the sequence to win the nationwide title was 1997 Michigan. The Wolverines have misplaced 9 in a row in Columbus and final beat a top-10 Ohio State staff on the highway in 1996.

4. The door cracked open a bit extra for the potential of Ohio State and Michigan each making the Playoff no matter what occurs Saturday. South Carolina offered the assistance. The Gamecocks’ surprising 63-38 win towards No. 5 Tennessee checked many historic packing containers:

• It’s South Carolina’s most factors scored towards an AP-ranked opponent, topping a 43-40 loss to Ole Miss in 2003.
• The 25-point margin of victory is South Carolina’s second-largest towards an AP-ranked opponent, behind a 35-7 win towards No. 5 Georgia in 2012.
• The 63 factors scored have been essentially the most by an unranked staff towards a top-five opponent ever, topping Hawaii’s 59-28 win towards No. 4 BYU in 1990, Iowa’s 55-24 win towards No. 3 Ohio State in 2017 and Holy Cross’ 55-12 win towards No. 1 Boston Faculty in 1942.
• It’s tied for the second-most factors scored by any staff towards a top-five opponent, behind Oklahoma’s 65-21 win towards No. 2 Texas Tech in 2008. Two different groups scored 63 towards a top-five staff: 2019 LSU (63-28 vs. No. 4 Oklahoma within the CFP) and 2016 Louisville (63-20 vs. No. 2 Florida State).
• It’s tied for the second-worst loss by a top-five Tennessee staff. The No. 3 Vols misplaced 38-0 at No. 18 Ole Miss in 1969, and the No. 3 Vols misplaced 42-17 to separate nationwide champion Nebraska within the 1997-98 Orange Bowl.

5. The SEC had beforehand been straightforward to type out within the rankings. That’s gone out the window. Georgia continues to be a tier above everybody else, in fact, unbeaten at 11-0 with one other good common season in-conference. Then there’s the matter of Tennessee, LSU and Alabama.

On the floor, maybe it ought to be straightforward. All three groups are 9-2. Tennessee beat LSU by 27, Tennessee beat Alabama by three, LSU beat Alabama by three. Is there any debate there? That’s how I seen it. Tennessee deserves to be ranked forward of LSU, which deserves to be ranked forward of Alabama. It’s why all three groups fell three spots on my poll this week.

The choice argument is that Tennessee’s loss to South Carolina is so unhealthy that it deserves to fall, whereas each LSU and Alabama received simply and don’t have a loss anyplace close to as unhealthy because the Vols’ to the Gamecocks. That’s the argument that received out within the ballot, as LSU stayed at No. 6, Alabama stayed at No. 8 and Tennessee fell to No. 9.

The Vols ought to be punished for the South Carolina loss, however I took a broader view of the season. Tennessee joins Georgia as the 2 groups with two wins towards present top-10 groups. It blew out LSU, and Alabama has a thinner resume headlined by shut wins towards Ole Miss and Texas.

6. USC lastly acquired the standard win it wanted and is a clear-cut No. 5. Of the 63 voters, 42 positioned the Trojans No. 5, per Faculty Ballot Tracker. Beforehand, USC’s finest win was towards Oregon State. Now it has a pair of ranked wins after Caleb Williams made a Heisman assertion towards UCLA. Throw in the truth that the Trojans’ solely loss got here right down to a two-point conversion on the highway at Utah, and so they’ve earned their spot within the prime 5 heading into Saturday’s recreation towards Notre Dame.

The Irish have climbed to No. 13 regardless of losses to Marshall and Stanford, making this the thirty fourth time each are ranked within the AP ballot for his or her matchup — the third most all time.

7. The Pac-12 acquired some readability after USC beat UCLA and Oregon beat Utah, however the rankings nonetheless aren’t easy. Above, I wrote about honoring head-to-head with Tennessee, so be happy to criticize my inconsistency as I write about Oregon and Washington (the reality is, as seen within the CFP rankings each Tuesday evening, sustaining full consistency in subjectively rating school soccer groups is not possible). I nonetheless have Oregon forward of Washington as a result of the Geese’ resume is clearly higher than the Huskies’ regardless of the head-to-head outcome, which got here right down to a discipline objective. Oregon’s different loss is to No. 1 Georgia; Washington misplaced to UCLA and, crucially, Arizona State, which is 3-8.

It’s the loss to the Solar Devils that basically drags Washington down, however throw in that Oregon has twice as many wins towards groups with successful data (4 to 2), and I gave the Geese the bump up forward of Tennessee in a tier that’s shut collectively from No. 6 to No. 10, with Washington becoming a member of Penn State on their very own tier forward of the three-loss groups within the 11-12 spots.

8. Clemson was quietly a winner on Saturday, for essentially the most half. It simply beat Miami and climbed 4 spots on my poll to No. 6 and two spots within the ballot to No. 7. I’m nonetheless not offered on the Tigers that prime, however 10-1 is 10-1. They’re certainly one of two remaining one-loss Energy 5 groups, and so they have a handful of strong wins, headlined by Florida State. A win towards South Carolina this Saturday will look higher after what the Gamecocks did to Tennessee. The one factor that went improper for Clemson: A potential win towards North Carolina within the ACC title recreation received’t present as a lot of a lift after the Tar Heels misplaced to Georgia Tech — the highest-ranked staff the Yellow Jackets have overwhelmed since 2015 Florida State.

9. Notre Dame is the top-ranked three-loss staff at No. 13, and I perceive it after the Irish demolished Clemson. Nonetheless … these losses to Marshall and Stanford occurred. I’ve Florida State No. 13. The Seminoles beat LSU, and so they be part of Georgia and Ohio State as the one groups within the prime 10 in yards per play on each offense and protection. I went with UCLA and Utah (honoring head-to-head, on this case) subsequent, then Notre Dame at No. 16. In the end, the margin separating these groups in the midst of the ballot is skinny.

10. All seven Energy 5 groups with 8-3 data simply have a spot within the Prime 25 (although Ole Miss is pushing its luck). Issues get trickier when contemplating whether or not to rank one of many 13 Energy 5 groups which are 7-4. For everybody sick of Texas (ranked twenty fourth within the ballot) getting the good thing about the doubt, don’t blame me this time. I thought-about the Longhorns — who blew out Kansas and stay beloved by superior metrics — however I solid them apart in favor of giving an honorary spot of kinds to South Carolina. If no one actually deserves it, why not vote for the staff that simply humiliated a top-five opponent? The Gamecocks will shortly fade from my poll in the event that they lose to Clemson to fall to 7-5. In the event that they win? Much more than 15 voters will be part of me in rating them.

New ballot arrivals: South Carolina (24) is new to my poll. Texas (24) is new to the AP Prime 25.

Falling out: UCF (19) fell off my poll. Oklahoma State (24) fell out of the AP Prime 25.

Who I like greater than the remainder of the panel (distinction of three-plus spots): Oregon (No. 7 on my poll vs. No. 10 within the ballot), Florida State (No. 13 vs. No. 16), UCLA (No. 14 vs. No. 17), Oregon State (No. 19 vs. No. 22), South Carolina (No. 24 vs. unranked), Troy (No. 25 vs. unranked)

Who I like much less: LSU (No. 9 vs. No. 6), Notre Dame (No. 16 vs. No. 13), Texas (unranked vs. No. 24), UCF (unranked vs. No. 25)

Week 13 ranked matchups: No. 3 Michigan at No. 2 Ohio State, No. 13 Notre Dame at No. 5 USC, No. 10 Oregon at No. 22 Oregon State, No. 19 Tulane at No. 21 Cincinnati

(Prime photograph of Blake Corum: Mike Mulholland / Getty Photos)