North Dakota
North Dakota vs. Iowa Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 11-7-2023
The North Dakota Fighting Hawks will visit the Iowa Hawkeyes on Tuesday for an NCAA basketball non-conference clash at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Tip-off is at 8:00 p.m. ET.
North Dakota was picked to finish fifth in the Summit League preseason poll. Sophomore forward B.J. Omot (12.6 PPG and 4.3 RPG) was selected to the preseason All-Summit League Second Team. The Fighting Hawks compiled a 13-20 record, including 4-11 on the road, in the 2022-23 season.
Iowa was predicted to finish ninth in the Big Ten preseason poll. No Hawkeyes were picked to the all-conference teams. Last season, they were 19-14 overall, including 14-3 at home.
The Hawkeyes are 19-point spread favorites and the game total is 152 points.
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Can North Dakota take it another step further this season?
While just 13-20 last season, North Dakota enjoyed a seven-win improvement from the 2021-22 season. The Fighting Hawks won six of their last nine games, including their first Summit League Tournament game in three years. Depth was a major factor in the improvement, as North Dakota finished the season with the most bench points in the conference (24.76 PPG) and 39th-most in the NCAA.
The Fighting Hawks return three starters and seven letterwinners from their 2022-23 team, including leading returning scorer Omit and leading rebounder Tsotne Tsartsidze (10.9 PPG and 5.6 RPG). Sophomore guard Treysen Eaglestaff (8.4 PPG) and senior forward Brady Danielson (7.8 PPG) are two other players to watch when North Dakota takes the court.
Last season, the Fighting Hawks scored 72.1 points per game and shot 44.1 percent from the field, including 35.0 percent from three-point range. They shot 68.3 percent at the free-throw line and averaged 33.4 rebounds per game. North Dakota’s opponents averaged 73.9 points per game and shot 47.0 percent, including 35.1 percent from long distance.
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Iowa lacks star power, but it should have scoring power
Iowa isn’t expected to be in the mix for the Big Ten title this season, but it would be unwise to count out the Hawkeyes. Head coach Fran McCaffery’s teams can always score, although defense will be a point of emphasis with this year’s squad. In an exhibition contest against D-II Quincy, Iowa allowed the Hawks to shoot 46 percent from three-point range. Will it iron out the kinks before conference play?
The Hawkeyes will be led by senior guard Tony Perkins (12.3 PPG and 4.1 RPG), who excels on defense and at getting to the rim on offense, and junior forward Payton Sandfort (10.3 PPG and 4.1 RPG), who is a threat from beyond the arc. Iowa’s incoming frosh will also be valuable players if they can learn the ropes quickly.
Last season, the Hawkeyes scored 80.1 points per game (18th) and shot 45.3 percent from the field (131st), including 34.0 percent from long range (186th). They shot 73.8 at the foul line (104th) and averaged 34.6 rebounds per game (79th). Iowa’s opponents scored 74.7 points per game (307th) and shot 47.4 percent from the floor (348th) with a 36.6 shooting percentage from three-point range (331st).
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The Hawkeyes are less star-driven and experienced than they have been in recent seasons, something that will show up in the final box score on Tuesday.
Iowa should be able to beat North Dakota, but I’m less comfortable predicting a spread victory for the Hawkeyes. The visitors return several of their top scorers, including the rising sophomore star Omit. They also welcome back enough rebounding to battle with the Hakweyes on the boards and should be comfortable knocking in shots from three-point range. Iowa was an awful defensive team last season, and those struggles could carry over into 2023-24 if their performance in their exhibition versus Quincy is any indication. I’ll bet on North Dakota covering on Tuesday!
Prediction: North Dakota +19
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I believe the Hawkeyes’ defensive problems will prevent them from covering the spread in a high-scoring game in their season opener. Iowa ranked 307th in points allowed per game, 348th in opponent field goal percentage, and 331st in opponent three-point shooting percentage last season. Just last week, they surrendered 76 points to a D-II school and allowed them to hit 46 percent of their three-point shots. That is a cause for concern against a Fighting Hawks squad that returns several of its top scorers and was among the nation’s best in bench scoring last season.
These teams averaged roughly 69-71 possessions per game last season, which indicates a faster-paced contest. I’ll bet on the over to cash at 152 total points!
Prediction: Over 152