No. 3 South Dakota State football vs. No. 2 North Dakota State: Who has the edge?

South Dakota State football is set to face North Dakota State in Fargo at 11 a.m. Saturday with a trip to the FCS national championship game on the line.

This is the sixth time NDSU has faced SDSU in the playoffs, but the Bison hold a 5-1 advantage in those games as well as the Dakota Marker after a 13-9 win in October.

Here is the tale of the tape between the two sides.

No. 3 South Dakota State (12-2, 7-1) vs No. 2 North Dakota State (12-2, 7-1)

When: Saturday, 11 a.m.

Where: Fargodome

TV/Radio: ABC, ESPN+/Jackrabbit Sports Network

What’s at stake?: History, the 2024 season, and bragging rights in a historic rivalry. This game has everything. North Dakota State has been viewed as the dominant team in the FCS for years, but South Dakota State has stolen that place on the mantle for the past couple of seasons.

This is the sixth time NDSU has faced SDSU in the playoffs. The Jackrabbits will have a tall task ahead of them this weekend as the Bison have won all five playoff games in Fargo. South Dakota State’s lone win in the playoff series was the most recent matchup when they defeated NDSU in the 2022 national championship game, 45-21.

Who’s better?: The two sides are pretty evenly matched, although North Dakota State did defeat South Dakota State this season to win the Dakota Marker for the first time in four years. 

Statistically though, South Dakota State certainly looks like the better team. It has the best scoring defense in the FCS, allowing only 12 points per game. The Jackrabbits also rank higher in total defense (280.4) and total offense (441.3) but NDSU has been more efficient with its offense and averaged more points per game. The Bison also ranks sixth in red zone offense while SDSU is 27th.

Matchup to watch: This is going to sound a bit vague, but the South Dakota State offense vs the North Dakota State defense. The last time these two teams faced off the Jacks actually held a 9-7 lead late and had multiple chances to build on it but failed. Instead, the offense sputtered out and the Bison eventually took advantage with a touchdown late to win the game.

The lone offensive highlight of the game for SDSU was a 66-yard touchdown run by Chase Mason. Mason had been out injured for a few weeks but made his return in limited snaps against Incarnate Word last weekend. He looked a bit rusty, but having both Mark Gronowski and Mason in the backfield adds a bit of unpredictability to the South Dakota State attack.

The South Dakota State offense certainly started the season as a question mark after losing many key pieces, but it feels like it’s clicking at the right time. The Gronowski-Griffin Wilde connection is the best it’s been all season and Amar Johnson, alongside the offensive line, has also looked sharp the past couple weeks.

SDSU wins if: Its offense can overcome a solid North Dakota State defense. The South Dakota State offense has struggled when it’s faced some of the top teams in its conference. The Jackrabbits scored 20 or fewer points against both South Dakota and NDSU. The Bison allow only 17.5 points per game and rank in the top 25 for rushing yards allowed per game. 

Prediction: 21-17, SDSU. It feels like the Jacks are peaking at the right time and they’ll be extra hungry with a chance at another FCS national title on the line.