North Dakota

Missouri State football vs North Dakota State: Scouting report, score prediction for Saturday

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By the end of Saturday afternoon’s matchup with FCS No. 1 North Dakota State, Missouri State could call itself a champion of the Missouri Valley Football Conference.

The FCS No. 14 Bears (8-2, 6-0 MVFC) have put themselves in this position by winning eight consecutive games for the first time since becoming a Division I program. They’ll have to win somewhere they haven’t since 2009 when they play in the 2:30 p.m. game at the Fargodome in Fargo, North Dakota.

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A win would give the Bears a share of the league for the first time since the 2021 spring season. They could then win the Valley outright with a win over South Dakota State on Nov. 23 in Springfield.

“We want the culture in our program to be the fact that if you come to Missouri State and are a good football player, you should expect to win championships and play in future bowl games,” second-year head coach Ryan Beard said. “They’ve wrapped their arms around that and they trust our process.”

NDSU (9-1, 6-0 MVFC) is as good as it gets in the subdivision with its lone loss coming to FBS Colorado to open the season. The Bison came four yards short of completing a hail mary to win the game which would have handed Deion Sanders a loss to rock the college football world.

The Bison have won nine FCS national championships since 2011. They have a consistent, championship-level program the Bears strive to be, even with Missouri State’s upcoming move to Conference USA in 2025. This game will serve as a good measuring stick for how far the Bears have to go when competing at the Group of 5 level next year.

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“It’s a special opportunity we have,” Beard said. “We knew what kind of football team we could have. We are making a run at a school where traditionally, you’re onto another sport or you’re talking about different things this time of year. Now, it’s about football and it’s about putting your best plan together.”

North Dakota State football QB Cam Miller is among the best FCS players

If there’s a quarterback who has played as well as Jacob Clark has in the FCS this season, Bison QB Cam Miller would be it. The NDSU quarterback is ranked the most efficient gunslinger in the subdivision with Clark third.

Miller has thrown for 18 touchdowns and zero interceptions when completing 77.6% of his passes. In a run-first offense, he’s thrown for 201.1 yards per game and rushed for 267 yards and six scores.

“He is an elite player,” Beard said. “I talk about Jacob’s vision a lot, (Miller) sees the field similarly. He does a nice job running their offense and understanding where the ball needs to go and when it needs to go there and then he doesn’t turn the ball over. That’s why they’re so efficient on offense because they’re smart football players, they’re tough, they take care of the ball and he is as elite as it gets.”

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Missouri State coach Ryan Beard sees no weaknesses in Bison

Beard went rat-a-tat-tat when listing what NDSU does well. The Bison are deep, there are countless players the Bears need to keep an eye on, they’re explosive offensively, they run the ball down your throat, they’re fast, physical, aggressive and bring pressure when they need to. They play zone and are effective in getting turnovers with elite special teams.

“There’s a reason they have such big trophy cases at North Dakota State,” Beard said.

Asked if he was getting much sleep, he said “not really.”

Asked if the Bison had any weaknesses, he replied “Not that I can see. They seem pretty unstoppable.”

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Where could some NDSU weaknesses be defensively?

The Bison have one of the best run defenses in the nation but their play against the pass could lead to some success for the Bears through the air. It will be critical for the Bears to protect Clark when the Bison tend to get after the passer and could make them one-dimensional.

NDSU hasn’t been the best on third downs, something Bison coach Tim Polasek is aware of, allowing teams to convert 42.1% of the time. The Bears have the 14th-best third-down offense in the FCS, converting on 46.4%. The Bison still only allow just 15.7 points per game and haven’t allowed more than 20 since Sept. 21 vs. Towson.

Time of possession will be something to watch when the Bison are so good at controlling the ball and the clock. They’re ranked third in the FCS in time of possession. Missouri State needs to capitalize on its opportunities and make sure the defense gets some needed rest when the Bison try to wear it down.

What NDSU coach Tim Polasek said about Missouri State

“They’re driven by their offense. We’re not slighting the defense but they’re productive. I’ve been challenging our defense to get a pulse on knowing where their quarterback is going with the ball. We have to be Johnny on the spot. The quarterback is more than capable of having a big day if we let him get started. In all areas of the field, they have some athletes.”

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Score prediction: North Dakota State 27, Missouri State 20

North Dakota State is by far the best team the Bears will have played up to this point. Whether you want to acknowledge it or not, the FCS is not as good as it once was and Missouri State hasn’t played very many good teams with its best win being against FCS No. 16 Illinois State. The Redbirds being ranked 16th may speak more about how down the subdivision is than how good the Redbirds are. That doesn’t take away from an eight-game winning streak which is difficult to do at any level.

The Bison are legit and should have beaten an FBS Colorado team with a path to the College Football Playoff. The Bears have as good of a quarterback as you can have in the subdivision and an explosive offense. But there are some flaws in the offensive line and defense that the Bison, of all teams the Bears will face, can take advantage of.



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