Michigan State vs North Dakota State March Madness picks: Who has edge?

It’s the green and white vs. the green and yellow in Buffalo, New York, as Michigan State basketball faces North Dakota State on Thurday, March 19 (4:05 p.m., TNT) at KeyBank Center.

The Spartans are the 4-seed and favored by 16½ points, but that doesn’t rule out an upset by the 13-seed Bison: two 4-seeds have lost in the first round in the past three years (Alabama to College of Charleston in 2024 and Virginia to Furman in 2023).

Will the Spartans go the way of the Crimson Tide and Cavaliers? Probably not, but five Free Press sports writers have their thoughts on the 2026 NCAA Tournament first-round game between Michigan State and North Dakota State.

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Tony Garcia

If this is in fact Tom Izzo’s month, there’s no time to fall to a double-digit seed. The Spartans’ defense has been gutted its past two games, but Jeremy Fears Jr. is exactly the type of guard a team needs in March. He leads the Spartans out of the opening round. The pick: MSU 77, North Dakota State 64.

Carlos Monarrez

Ol’ Mr. March, Tom Izzo, has his Spartans dancing yet again and with a healthy break – ahem – after an early Big Ten Tournament exit, you can bet he’ll get the defense to tighten up. It’ll need it against the good-shooting Bisons, who are great from 3-point range. The pick: MSU 78, North Dakota State 70.

Jeff Seidel

The Spartans should have no excuses. They are well-rested and have had time to prepare for the Bison, a team that last made the NCAAs in 2019. If the Spartans come out and go through the motions, thinking ahead to future opponents – like they did at the Big Ten Tournament – it would be inexcusable. I also don’t think that’s gonna happen. The Spartans will roll. The pick: MSU 90, North Dakota State 71.

Chris Solari

The Spartans haven’t taken a step back from high-level competition in weeks, so they will welcome having the clear-cut physical advantages to bang with the Bison. The key at KeyBank Center will be MSU defending NDSU’s sharp-shooting lineup to prevent a classic 3/14 upset. The pick: MSU 84, North Dakota State 72.

Shawn Windsor

The Spartans go as their shooting goes. That’s been the narrative for much of the season anyway, and while they look like Final Four contenders when they hit a few outside shots, the better barometer of late has been their 3-point defense. They’ll need some against the Bisons, who love to chuck ’em, and make ’em. Expect MSU to tighten up on the perimeter. The pick: MSU 74, North Dakota State 63.