North Dakota
FCS Playoffs Odds & Picks: How to Bet Samford vs. North Dakota State, William & Mary vs. Montana State & More
The third spherical of FCS Playoffs begins on Friday night time, with six groups seeking to transfer one step nearer to the championship.
The second-round matchups noticed few surprises; for simply the second time because the playoffs expanded in 2013, each seeded workforce received their recreation.
With the eight top-seeded groups left within the quarterfinals, will we lastly see some upsets? With only one workforce listed as lower than a landing favourite, I’m not so positive.
Within the first two rounds of the playoffs, favorites went 8-8 towards the unfold. Canine coated 5 of the eight video games within the first spherical, whereas favorites completed 5-3 ATS within the second spherical.
Relating to the entire, overs have been big to date within the playoffs, hitting in 12 of the 16 video games. Nonetheless, I wouldn’t be in a rush to press the entire within the quarterfinals, as six of the eight remaining contenders are rush-heavy groups, with 5 of the eight rating contained in the FCS high 10 in rush yards per recreation.
The three playoff video games slated for Friday night time ought to all be thrilling, and I count on at the least two to be carefully contested.
No matter whether or not you’re like me and clinging to an Incarnate Phrase future, or struggling to make it to bowl season with simply Military-Navy on the school slate this weekend, I feel there’s revenue to be discovered within the three-game FCS slate on Friday night time.
FCS Faculty Soccer Finest Bets
The workforce logos within the desk beneath characterize every of the matchups that Keg is concentrating on from Friday’s slate of FCS video games. Click on the workforce logos for one of many matchups beneath to navigate to a selected guess mentioned on this article.
Samford vs. North Dakota State
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For these of you who don’t know, North Dakota State is the Alabama of FCS soccer. This season marks its Thirteenth straight 12 months advancing to the quarterfinals.
The Bison have the second-most FCS playoff victories in historical past, and their 9 championships are essentially the most by any workforce. They’re additionally the defending FCS champion.
North Dakota State completed the season second within the MVC at 7-1 with the Thirteenth-best scoring offense in FCS, averaging 36 factors per recreation. A lot of that success got here on the bottom, as NDSU averaged 277 yards speeding per recreation to rank third nationally.
The Bison protection has been practically as spectacular as their protection, holding opponents to only 18 factors and 296 yards per recreation on common. Solely Jackson State and Delaware have been higher with regards to passing protection, because the Bison have held opposing groups to only 149.4 passing yards per recreation.
Nonetheless, their passing protection will face certainly one of its hardest checks of the season towards Samford. The Bulldogs offense has been the sixth-most productive passing offense amongst all FCS groups, averaging 306.5 passing yards per recreation.
What really set this Bulldogs workforce aside throughout their 11-1 season that included a Southern Convention Championship was its potential to restrict errors. Its .75 turnover margin ranks among the many high 20 in FCS. It additionally is available in at fifteenth in red-zone scoring proportion.
Sadly for Samford, it is going to be with out beginning quarterback and Southern Convention Offensive Participant of the 12 months Michael Hiers.
Freshman Quincy Crittendon put up over 400 yards of offense and 5 touchdowns of their second spherical win over Southeastern Louisiana, however even when the Bulldogs offense can stay according to Crittendon on the helm, I don’t suppose it is going to be sufficient towards the Bison.
The Samford protection has given up over 500 yards in three straight video games, and it’s giving up 4.1 yards per keep on the bottom and 174.3 rush yards per recreation.
North Dakota State is 31-6 at residence towards FCS top-10 groups, and it’s gone 32-1 in playoff video games held within the Fargodome since 2010. NDSU has additionally by no means misplaced a recreation to a Southern Convention workforce.
North Dakota State is the largest favourite within the quarterfinals, and for good cause. The Bison have been already an terrible matchup for Samford, and it will get even worse for the Bulldogs with out Hiers.
NDSU continues to be listed as a -16.5 favourite on BetMGM, whereas it’s moved previous 17 on different books. So, store round and attempt to keep below the important thing variety of 17 if in any respect doable.
I do just like the Bison as excessive as a 20.5-point favourite, however if you happen to’re not snug laying that massive of a quantity, I feel the over is a stable play as properly.
Samford ought to nonetheless be capable of put some factors on the board towards NDSU, and I wouldn’t be stunned to see the Bison surpass 40 factors for the fourth time of their final 5 video games.
Choose: North Dakota State -17 (-125) or Higher · Over 62 or Higher
William & Mary vs. Montana State
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Montana State -7 · Beneath 65.5  |
The Tribe have been enjoying nice soccer all 12 months, which you’d know even if you happen to haven’t watched a single FCS recreation all 12 months because of their 11-1 file and Co-CAA championship.
However towards Gardner-Webb within the second spherical of the playoffs, William & Mary performed the most effective soccer video games in program historical past.
W&M’s 40-point win over the Bulldogs was the most important at school historical past. Additionally they broke single-game information for factors scored, speeding yards, compelled turnovers and complete yards.
After a efficiency like that, you’d should surprise how this workforce might be a 7-point underdog to Montana State.
At the start, the Tribe play within the CAA, a significantly weaker convention than the Huge Sky. And whereas their win over Gardner Webb was spectacular, they have been a nasty matchup for an inferior Bulldogs workforce to start with.
They’ll now should discover a solution to cease the second-best speeding offense in FCS, one thing I don’t count on from a Tribe workforce that has allowed 4.6 yards per carry and given up 18 speeding touchdowns on the 12 months.
Montana State not solely went 9-0 in one of many hardest conferences in FCS soccer, however it did so with out main working again Isaiah Ifanse for your complete season. The Bobcats additionally misplaced their dual-threat quarterback Sean Chambers, who has been pivotal in red-zone conditions for a time frame.
Each Chambers and Ifanse are again and wholesome for the Bobcats, so it’s loopy to think about that this 11-1 workforce may now be even higher.
William & Mary has been elite at attending to the quarterback and creating turnovers this season. The Tribe have 30 sacks and boast the Twenty first-best turnover margin in FCS at .58.
Sadly for the them, Montana State owns the third-best turnover margin in FCS, given up simply 11 complete turnovers on the season. The Bobcats additionally are available at eighth with regards to sacks allowed, giving up lower than one per recreation to date this season.
And after flying throughout the nation, William & Mary will look to knock off a Montana State workforce that has received 19 consecutive residence video games in entrance of the third-largest crowd on common this season in 15-degree climate that’s more likely to drop into the only digits after halftime.
The Tribe are a terrific soccer workforce. However the Bobcats are on a distinct degree, and the state of affairs couldn’t be worse for William & Mary.
Again the Bobcats to care for enterprise at residence in what I count on to be a low-scoring, frost-bitten rock battle.
Choose: Montana State -7 or Higher · Beneath 65.5 or Higher
Incarnate Phrase vs. Sacramento State
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Incarnate Phrase +6 · Over 78.5  |
If you wish to see a high-flying, back-and-forth, aggressive recreation within the FCS quarterfinals, that is your finest probability.
Incarnate Phrase and Sacramento rank first and fourth, respectively, with regards to scoring offense. The Cardinals lead the FCS with 51.9 factors per recreation, whereas Sac State has put up 41.2 per contest.
Each defenses have been stable general, holding opponents to twenty.7 and 22.6 factors per recreation, respectfully. Nonetheless, every of them gave up 30-plus factors of their FCS playoff opener.
Sacramento State has been strolling a tightrope since October making an attempt to stay undefeated. The Hornets have had Simply certainly one of their final six wins come by greater than a landing.
They did notch their first-ever FCS playoff win final week over Richmond, however as soon as once more, it wasn’t with no little bit of drama as they trailed, 21-7, to start out the sport.
The largest situation for the Hornets and one of many essential causes they’ve struggled on the finish of the season has been turnovers. Sacramento State has turned the ball over 10 instances in its final 5 video games, now positing a turnover margin of -1 on the season.
That might play a task towards an Incarnate Phrase workforce that has 12 interceptions and 20 compelled turnovers this season.
The Cardinals are led by one of many high three quarterbacks on the FCS degree in Lindsey Scott. Incarnate Phrase’s signal-caller leads FCS in passing effectivity and has racked up 55 touchdowns on the season whereas throwing simply six interceptions.
He can get it performed on the bottom as properly, totaling 466 rush yards on 5.1 yards per carry. He ranks second on the workforce behind only one,000-yard rusher Marcus Cooper.
Each groups have been impressively balanced on offense, discovering methods to win video games each on the bottom and thru the air.
Nonetheless, Sacramento State’s protection has struggled each within the secondary and within the pink zone. The Hornets rank 91st amongst all FCS groups by permitting 243.5 passing yards per recreation, whereas Incarnate Phrase ranks inside the highest 30.
Sac State additionally ranks 93rd within the pink zone, permitting groups to attain on 85.7% of their journeys. In the meantime, the Cardinals are giving up factors on solely 77.8% of journeys.
This Sacramento State workforce has been proper on the sting of dropping video games for a while. Its turnover points paired with its defensive struggles towards the highest-scoring workforce in FCS may very properly be the straw that breaks the camel’s again.
That’s why I’m backing the Cardinal at +6 or higher.
I additionally count on these groups to proceed to attain on the similar excessive degree they’ve all season and could be snug backing an over as excessive as 78.5.