Nebraska
Tuesday’s primaries to set up key fall matchups in Nebraska
Tuesday’s primary elections in Nebraska will set the stage for November in a battleground House district, as well as a potentially competitive Senate contest, as Democrats try to win control of Congress.
Democrats will choose their nominee in the 2nd District, one of three House seats Republicans won in 2024 that former Vice President Kamala Harris carried in the presidential election. On the GOP side, Omaha City Council member Brinker Harding cleared the primary field to replace retiring Rep. Don Bacon.
And the outcome of Nebraska’s Democratic Senate primary could go a long way to determine just how much GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts will have to sweat his bid for a first full term in the red state in a race that will also feature independent Dan Osborn.
Voters in West Virginia will also decide general election matchups in Senate and House races Tuesday.
Polls in close in West Virginia at 7:30 p.m. ET and in Nebraska at 9 p.m. ET.
Here are the races to watch:
Nebraska’s battleground 2nd District
In the Omaha-based 2nd District, the Democratic primary has become “officially ugly,” Barry Rubin, a nonpartisan political operative in Nebraska who once was executive director of the state’s Democratic Party, told NBC News.
He said “the knives are out” between the two candidates leading the Democratic field: local political organizer Denise Powell and state Sen. John Cavanaugh.
The two campaigns and allied outside groups have spent over $5 million on the airwaves, according to the tracking firm AdImpact, with some ads labeling Powell as “dark money Denise” and other ads accusing Cavanaugh of endangering the future of Nebraska’s “blue dot” Electoral College vote with his campaign.
The district has long been competitive, but Bacon’s decision not to seek re-election has given Democrats renewed enthusiasm that they can flip it this year. President Donald Trump lost the district by 5 points in 2024 as Bacon won by 2 points.
Meanwhile, Harding is running unopposed in the Republican primary and has been endorsed by Bacon and both of the state’s GOP senators.
In interviews Friday, Powell and Cavanaugh dismissed concerns that whoever emerges from the primary will begin at a disadvantage after having faced bruising attacks from fellow Democrats for weeks.
Cavanaugh said that the ad campaigns have boosted his name recognition across the Omaha area and that when he knocks on doors to meet voters, “everyone knows who I am immediately.”
Powell, who has been endorsed by EMILY’s List, the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’ BOLD PAC, the Congressional Black Caucus PAC and Elect Democratic Women, has targeted Cavanaugh primarily over his decision to run while he occupies a key seat in Nebraska’s unicameral Legislature.
While Nebraska state lawmakers are technically nonpartisan, Cavanaugh represents a key vote in the Democratic minority. Powell and her allies say that if he wins in November, GOP Gov. Jim Pillen will appoint a hard-line Republican to replace him, cementing a GOP supermajority that could push Republican priorities like restricting abortion rights and changing the state’s Electoral College system to a “winner-take-all” format.
In presidential elections, Nebraska awards an electoral vote to the candidate who wins each of its three congressional districts and two votes to the candidate who wins the state. Democratic presidential nominees have historically carried one electoral vote from the 2nd District.
The issue is “particularly salient” right now, Powell told NBC News, saying voters are paying more attention to it in the wake of the ongoing national redistricting fight.
“This one electoral seat may be the thing that gets us across the finish line in 2028,” Powell added, saying that because it has become an issue in this Democratic primary, “everyone has their blue dots out” on lawn signs in the Omaha area.
Cavanaugh has pushed back against what he calls “MAGA Republican talking points” that he is endangering the “blue dot,” including by running a TV ad featuring other Democratic state senators telling voters, “We know Nebraska Democrats will pick up additional seats [in the Legislature] this election, securing the blue dot.”
Meanwhile, Cavanaugh’s allies have accused Powell’s backers of “trying to buy this election.” Powell dismissed the attacks as “a distraction from the biggest issue right now, which is the blue dot.”
Cavanaugh, who has been endorsed by the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, the state’s AFL-CIO and almost a dozen other local unions, told NBC News that it’s fair to question why groups based in Washington are spending so much money to elect Powell.
He said it’s leading voters to question “who is spending this money and why are they spending so much money.”
Democratic drama in Nebraska’s Senate race
Nebraska is also hosting statewide elections for the Senate and governor this year. Republicans are expected to be in a strong position in both in the state, which Trump won by 20 points in 2024.
But there has been some drama in the Senate race, in which the Democratic primary could determine whether Osborn, who lost to GOP Sen. Deb Fischer by 7 points in 2024, will be Ricketts’ lone challenger in November.
Two Democrats — Cindy Burbank, a pharmacy technician, and pastor William Forbes — are on the primary ballot. Forbes filed to run for the Senate just before the deadline, and Nebraska Democrats accused him of being a Republican plant, designed to siphon votes from Osborn in the fall.
Forbes, who voted for Trump and attended a training session for conservative candidates, told CNN that he is a lifelong Democrat and that he entered the race because his party hadn’t fielded a candidate. He denied being a Republican plant.
Burbank told NBC News that she filed to run out of concern that Forbes would pull votes from Osborn. She denied she launched her campaign with the intent to drop out after the primary to allow Osborn to face Ricketts head-on. But Burbank said that she would exit the race if it became clear she didn’t have a path to victory in November and that she would back Osborn in that scenario.
“I will drop out when and if the time comes that I cannot win in November. And I think anybody with any dignity should do that,” Burbank said.
Republicans tried to remove Burbank from the primary ballot, arguing she was planning to drop out after the primary. But the state Supreme Court ruled that those officials missed a key deadline to file an objection to her candidacy, allowing her to remain on the ballot.
Pillen, the first-term governor, is running for re-election after having defeated a Trump-backed candidate in his 2022 primary. This time, Pillen has Trump’s endorsement. Five other Republicans are on the primary ballot, but none have reported significant fundraising totals.
Two Democratic candidates — former state Sen. Lynne Walz (a distant cousin of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz through marriage) and Air Force veteran Larry Marvin — are on the primary ballot for governor. Walz, who represented a ruby red district in the state Senate, is the only candidate who has reported raising notable levels of campaign funds, although she still has far less money than Pillen.
Regardless of their nominee, Democrats will face an uphill climb against Pillen in November. The party hasn’t won a governor’s race in Nebraska since Ben Nelson won a second term in 1994.
West Virginia contests
In West Virginia, GOP Sen. Shelley Moore Capito is running for her third term. She has been touting Trump’s endorsement on the airwaves as she faces five other Republicans in the primary, including state Sen. Tom Willis, who has self-funded his campaign. Willis has argued that Capito has “lost her way,” suggesting she doesn’t reflect the state’s conservative values.
Five candidates are on the Democratic primary ballot. The top fundraiser is Marine veteran Zach Shrewsbury, who lost the 2024 Senate Democratic primary and has the endorsement of Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif.
On the House side, GOP Rep. Carol Miller faces a primary challenge from Derrick Evans, a former state lawmaker who pleaded guilty in 2024 to a felony related to entering the Capitol during the Jan. 6, 2021, riot. The race is a rematch of their 2024 primary, which Miller won with 63% of the vote to Evans’ 37%. But Evans has proven to be a strong fundraiser and has spent about $1.2 million on his bid.