Nebraska vs UTEP: The Start of Something Special

After persuading Dylan Raiola to switch his commitment from Georgia to Nebraska, all that’s left is to hang the banner in the Hawks Center to crown the Huskers the 2024 off-season champions.

With Raiola’s potential to shatter every Nebraska passing record and Rhule adding two new pass catchers, Jahmal Banks and Isaiah Neyor, the 2024 season looks promising. The return of Heinrich Haarberg, the 2023 leading passer, further adds depth to the offense. Whether he plays as a Taysom Hill-type gadget player or a Tim Tebow-esque goal-line QB, his presence will be felt. Nebraska gets an excellent opportunity to start its season on the right note against an opponent who hired a new coach.

I’ll frequently mention Expected Points Added (EPA), which is one stat I’ll cite in my pregame and post-game articles. For a given down, distance, and field position, both teams have a probability of scoring the next points in the game (the expected points). After the play, the teams have a new down, distance, and field position, resulting in a new expected points value. The difference in expected points before and after the play is Expected Points Added. This metric is stated with respect to the offense.

A positive EPA play has improved the offense’s chances of scoring the next points. A negative EPA play has improved the defense’s chance of scoring next. While assigning all the credit for EPA to the QB on a passing play isn’t perfect (after all, ten other players contributed to the play’s success), it does give us a way to rank the performance of skill position players against others in terms of who makes plays that contribute to winning.

As soon as Dylan Raiola committed to Nebraska, it was presumed he would be the starter. He’s potentially a generational player who at least dresses like Patrick Mahomes and will hopefully play like him. Since he’s yet to play a college snap, the graph below shows Heinrich Haarberg’s 2023 cumulative season EPA. The total EPA graph is a running total of all plays where the QB ran the ball, passed the ball, or took a sack. If the line goes up, the QB was involved in a play that helped his team’s scoring chances. However, if the line goes down, that play hurts the team’s chances of scoring (and increases the opponent’s chances).

UTEP’s Cade McConnell and Nebraska’s Heinrich Haarberg struggled in 2023, finishing with a negative EPA. This means that the total contributions during the season hindered scoring points. In 2024, I don’t expect this to be the case for Dylan Raiola. I predict he’ll finish the season with 3,000 yards passing and 30 touchdowns. Nine players in 2023 accomplished 3000 and 30, and four of the nine were taken in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Hitting those benchmarks in his freshman season would clearly indicate his elite pedigree.

The carry distribution in the chart below goes beyond the simple “rushing average” statistic. A player with 10 carries each for 4 yards and a player with one carry for 35 yards and nine carries for 5 yards both have a rushing average of 4 YPC, but their distribution of carries would look widely different. The black vertical, dashed line represents carries of 0 yards. The two quarterbacks on the table have a significant peak of negative yards since sacks count against their rushing totals. The goldenrod vertical, dashed line represents carries of 10 yards (a first down). Emmet Johnson, for example, would consistently get positive yards but would rarely break big runs of 10+ yards.

In addition to being the Huskers leading passer in 2023, Heinrich Haarberg was the leading rusher. However, Haarberg’s rushing EPA was also negative, thanks to many sacks and negative carries. Fortunately, I expect fewer QB carries in 2024, but I could still see Haarberg getting some work as a power runner near the goal line. Emmett Johnson consistently had positive carries in 2023, while Gabe Ervin flashed some big play upside in limited availability.

UTEP doesn’t return much rushing production from its 2023 team after its top two rushers from last season entered the portal. The new head coach, Scotty Walden, brings in his leading rusher from 2023, Jevon Jackson, who rushed for 1300 yards at Austin Peay. He’s joined by TCU transfer Corey Wren, who also played at Florida State.

This upcoming game is a crucial opportunity for Dylan Raiola to gain valuable experience in full-speed college football before the significant week two matchup with Colorado. I anticipate a comfortable win for Nebraska. My prediction for the season is a conservative 7-5 finish and a return to a bowl game. I expect Raiola to face some challenges as a freshman and make a few mistakes that might cost the Huskers a game or two; I also believe his natural talent will keep Nebraska competitive against even the most formidable opponents on the schedule.

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