Nebraska pitched as possible destination for 'climate migrants' • Nebraska Examiner

LINCOLN — For much of its history, Nebraska has been seen as a challenging place to set down roots.

From its early frontier description as “The Great American Desert” and a place only “bugeaters” could love, to now being lumped together with other “flyover” states of the Great Plains, the state has lacked the soaring mountains, sandy beaches and mild winters of other states.

The result? Many one-time Huskers have moved on, and it’s difficult to convince people from other states to move here.

But earlier this month, a group of 25 people gathered in a noisy corner of Morrill Hall to discuss what they see as an opportunity for revitalization and resettlement of the small towns and cities of Midwestern states including Nebraska.

The impetus? A predicted wave of “climate migrants” seeking new homes away from flooded coastal cities impacted by climate change.

“We need to be thinking ahead,” said Hillary Brown, a professor emeritus of architecture and former director of the Urban Sustainability Program at the City College of New York.

‘Managed retreat’

Brown and Daniel Brooks, a University of Nebraska-Lincoln graduate and now professor emeritus of ecology and evolutionary biology at the University of Toronto, were the featured speakers at the July 18 symposium. 

They co-authored an article in 2021 entitled, “How managed retreat from climate change could revitalize rural America.” 

One of the participants, Bruce Johnson, a professor emeritus of agriculture economics at UNL, said the event was an appropriate “conversation starter” about something that could be “a regeneration of homesteading.” 

“We have a very genuine opportunity to turn the corner on population decline in a majority of our counties,” said Johnson, who grew up in the northeast Nebraska farm town of Wausa.

Climate change is real, Brooks and Brown said, and rising sea levels, increased wildfires, drought and other extreme weather will force a mass migration of people that Nebraska’s small towns and cities could capitalize on.

A projected 1.2 billion displaced

By 2050, the United Nations’ refugee agency is projecting that 1.2 billion people worldwide will have been displaced by climate-related changes and disasters.

Brooks said a sudden collapse of the melting ice caps in Greenland and Antarctica could raise sea levels by as much as 10 feet, forcing a panicked wave of climate migrants, who may have lost everything and must seek emergency shelter.

He and Brown, however, said that a more managed and orderly retreat from the coasts and climate-impacted areas — by rebuilding in safer areas before disaster hits — is much preferable. Nebraska communities, they said, should begin planning and preparing for a possible new wave of homesteaders by providing amenities they will need.

Brown said between 4 million and 13 million people living in coastal cities will need to seek new homes in “climate havens” such as Nebraska. 

Climate-related migration is already happening in the U.S., and Brooks said the rate of climate-related problems is expected to accelerate in coming years, increasing the migration.

Hurricane Katrina displaced 800,000 people from New Orleans in 2005 and 2006 who sought new homes elsewhere in the United States, Brown said.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, natural disasters in 2022 displaced 3.2 million people, of whom 500,000 had not returned to their homes by the end of 2023.

Since most climate refugees find new homes within their own country, that provides a great opportunity for rural places, Brooks and Brown maintained, because they predict such refugees will want to live outside of “crowded and stressed urban areas.”

Not all agree

To be sure, not everyone agrees with their dire warnings of a mass migration. 

And a map that predicted the top “receiver” counties in the U.S. that Brown displayed during her presentation didn’t list any in Nebraska. Instead, it showed areas of North and South Dakota, northwest Iowa and Minnesota as top destinations, along with portions of northern Michigan and Wisconsin, the Appalachians, northern New England and the Pacific Northwest.

Some authorities predict that while there will be climate migrants, they will more likely move within their own region — not across the country — so they can be near family members and continue to take advantage of the amenities and good jobs in coastal areas.

Others maintain that the prediction of 1.2 billion climate migrants by 2050 is inaccurate. Still others point to surveys that indicate economic factors, rather than climate, as the main drivers of migration. 

The map that bypassed Nebraska as a top “receiver” area for climate migrants was developed as a project by the environmental group Proactive Leadership Advocating for Climate and Equity.

The map was based on whether an area had a low risk of such factors as extreme heat, reduced crop yields, wildfires and economic damages.

Nebraska had its second-worst wildfire season in recent history in 2022, and last month, 14 inches of rain caused devastating floods in northwest Iowa and along the Missouri River. By 2100, Brooks said, average temperatures in Nebraska are predicted to rise by 4 to 9 degrees, with up to 25 days with temperatures over 100, and heavy precipitation events increasing by 16%.

Brooks and Brown downplayed the map, saying that it is only one opinion and is not “the last word” on where such migration might occur.

Johnson, the UNL emeritus professor, also disputed the map. He said climate migrants fleeing drought and shortages of drinking water will be looking for places with abundant water resources such as Nebraska, which sits on top of two-thirds of the resources of the Ogallala Aquifer. 

“It’s unmatched,” he said of the state’s abundance of water.

During the symposium, Chuck Hibberd, a board member at the Nebraska Community Foundation, asked those present to list what climate migrants might want in a new home and what might attract or deter them.

He pointed out that Nebraska has an estimated 72,000 unfilled jobs, so employers are looking for new workers. Amenities listed by those attending included good housing, schools and medical facilities, affordable homes and safe communities.

Brown said people also will be looking for places that have low risk for climate-related disasters, entrepreneurial opportunities and innovative leadership that has taken steps to address climate change. Migrants may also want access to cultural activities, such as an orchestra, ballet or music venue, she said.

Towns urged to get ‘more interesting’

Another participant, Chuck Hassebrook, the former longtime head of the Center for Rural Affairs, said it is important to make small towns “more interesting.” He mentioned development of historical and cultural assets, hike/bike and kayak trails and other local recreation opportunities.  

Brooks, who earned bachelor’s and master’s degrees from UNL, said communities seeking to capitalize on climate migration need to decide what steps are needed to make their area more attractive to new settlers.

“You need to make your town more interesting and with a quality of life that will help attract people,” he said.

The first-ever symposium celebrated the 100th birthday of Mary Louise Hanson Pritchard, the founding curator of the H.W. Manter Laboratory, Division of Parasitology at the State Museum. Brooks was a student of Pritchard’s.