Illinois at Nebraska prediction: Odds, best bets, player news, stats for September 21

Second-year HC Matt Rhule has the 22nd-ranked Cornhuskers wrecking shop on both sides of the ball, having outscored their three opponents by a combined score of 102-20. Their 4th-rated defense held their toughest opponent, Colorado, to 260 total yards while ranking 13th in defensive rushing EPA and 17th in passing success rate allowed. The Huskers are running at the 14th-slowest pace in the nation and need to shore up the offensive line miscues, as their 7.5 OL penalties per game is the eighth-highest rate in FBS.

HC Brett Bielema is also riding high at 3-0 with Illinois holding off a spirited charge from Kansas in Week 2 to extract a 23-17 victory over the Jayhawks in spite of a 42% post-game win expectancy. Though the Illini has been running the ball at a Bielema-esque 67.4% rate on standard downs (Avg = 58.4%), their passing game ranks 37th in success rate and 26th in EPA per dropback behind QB Luke Altmyer. The Illini pass defense is holding opponents to a stingy 1.7 net yards per pass attempt (3rd in FBS) with a 7.8% interception rate (4th).

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Game detials and how to watch Illinois at Nebraska Friday Night

o Date: Friday, September 20, 2024
o Time: 8:00 PM EST
o Site: Memorial Stadium
o City: Lincoln, Nebraska
o TV/Streaming: Fox

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Game odds for Illinois at Nebraska – Week 4

The latest odds as of Tuesday evening:

· Moneyline: Nebraska -350, Illinois +260
· Spread: Nebraska -8.5 (-105)
· Over/Under: 42.5 points

*odds courtesy of BetMGM

While BetMGM lines this game at Nebraska -8.5, there are signs that this line could creep up to -10, as the market is already showing -9.5 at some books. The Over/Under has dropped a point to 42.5 since the open.

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Eric Froton (@CFFroton) is not expecting points Friday Night.

“Illinois ranks 111th in seconds per play, while Nebraska plays even slower and ranks 121st. In their last game against Kansas’ 17th ranked SP+ offense, Illinois hung on to win 23-17. Nebraska just held Colorado’s high-flying passing offense to a paltry 10 points enroute to a comfortable 18-point victory over the Buffs. Both Kansas and Colorado’s offenses are rated higher than either of these programs, with freshman Dylan Raiola finally facing an upper echelon defense. I think we get an ultra-slow classic Big Ten matchup where points are hard to come by. Accordingly, I’m taking the Under 42.5 game total.”

From the Trading Desk at BetMGM courtesy of John Ewing: National Championship

Line movement (Last Week to Now)
· Georgia +275 to +325
· Ohio State +375 to +350
· Alabama +1100 to +900

Highest Ticket%
· Ohio State 16.4%
· Georgia 12.0%
· Texas 10.2%

Highest Handle%
· Ohio State 17.1%
· Georgia 15.7%
· Alabama 12.8%

Biggest Liabilities
· Ohio State
· Tennessee
· Alabama

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Quarterback matchup for Illinois vs. Nebraska

o Nebraska: Consensus five-star QB Dylan Raiola had been committed to Georgia throughout the majority of the pre-college courtship process before a late flip to Nebraska threw all his previous plans in a blender. While the still raw Raiola hasn’t had to face a credible Big Ten defense like Illinois yet, he has completed 72.7% of his passes for 666 yards, 8.3 YPA and a 5-to-1 ratio. His excellent 4.3% pressure-to-sack rate is testament to his offensive line that is pitching a 1.5% sack rate (22nd in FBS) and has yet to allow a passing down sack this year.

o Illinois: Illini QB Luke Altmyer is a former four-star Ole Miss recruit who transferred here after Lane Kiffin and his hand selected starting QB Jaxson Dart came to town. Now in his second year as a starter, Altmyer has improved his completion rate from 64.6%-to-69.5% while averaging 8.3 YPA (6.9 LY) with an unblemished 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio (13-to-10 in 2023). So far, he is carrying an 83rd-percentile PFF offensive grade, which is a sharp uptick from last year’s 69.4 rating. Hopefully Altmyer’s improved pocket presence, Illinois is averaging a 3.5% sack rate this year compared to 8.3% in 2023, can allow him to buy time and make plays against a fearsome Nebraska defensive front.

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Player news & recent stats

· Illinois has turned the ball over just one time this year, while their defense has forced eight takeaways. Combined, Illinois is leading the country with a +7 turnover margin through the first three games.

· The Illini are still trying to account for the loss of star IDL Jer’Zhan Newton, as they rank 106th in sacks per dropback, 110th in sacks per pressure and have yet to record a single sack on a blitz down this season.

· Nebraska has drastically boosted their passing game efficiency with the arrival of QB Dylan Raiola, improving the team completion rate from 52% (126th in FBS) to 73%, which is the 17th highest mark in the country.

· NU’s run defense has been merciless this season, ranking 13th in EPA/rush, 10th in stuff rate and 6th in yards per rush. While the Huskers’ pass defense is allowing an elevated 67% completion rate to opponents, those completions resulted in successful plays only 26.5% of the time (17th in FBS).

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

– Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
– Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
– Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
– Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)
– Eric Froton (@CFFroton)

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