Higher Nebraska Crop Production Not Expected to Offset Lower Prices in 2023

It’s anticipated Nebraska farmers will change acres from soybeans to corn in 2023, with soybean planted space down almost 200,000 acres. Although soybeans are anticipated to return to pattern yields within the state, the report mentioned decrease costs are projected to trigger soybean receipts to fall $400 million.

The analysts mentioned hay and wheat acres will improve in 2023 above drought-affected 2022 ranges, however the “potential stays for lingering drought considerations that impression winter wheat and first-cutting hay.”

NEBRASKA LIVESTOCK

After herd liquidation in 2021, Nebraska cattle and calf stock fell once more in 2022.

“This was largely pushed by drought throughout the state, which considerably restricted high quality grazing and forage choices,” the report mentioned.

Cattle herd liquidation is anticipated to proceed in 2023, based on the evaluation.

“Beef cow stock doesn’t rise till 2024 as increased cattle costs will finally incentivize a flip to heifer retention,” the report mentioned.

Regardless of tighter inventories in 2023, cattle and calf receipts will rise $506 million, based on the projections. That will probably be pushed by increased costs because the “liveweight foundation of marketings declines 4% year-on-year.”

Nebraska hog and pig receipts are anticipated to say no $117 million in 2023, ensuing from weaker costs and fewer marketings.

Total livestock receipts in Nebraska are projected to extend by $300 million in 2023, the report mentioned.

AG EXPENSES

The report mentioned export restrictions, excessive pure fuel costs and manufacturing disruptions contribute to file fertilizer bills. These bills elevated $791 million, or by about 43%, in 2022 after sharp will increase in 2021 as properly.

“Fertilizer bills ought to stage off in 2023 however will not be prone to fall again for a minimum of one other yr,” the report mentioned.

Feed bills in Nebraska elevated by $513 million in 2022 on quick feed provides however are anticipated to reasonable in 2023.

Gas and oil bills elevated $279 million in 2022 after sharper will increase in 2021 however are projected to fall modestly in 2023.

KEY CONSIDERATIONS

The report’s authors mentioned costs for a lot of crops have been at or close to file nominal ranges within the 2022-2023 advertising and marketing yr within the U.S.

“Unfavorable climate decreased crop manufacturing in the USA, the Russian invasion of Ukraine restricted exports by a serious competitor in world markets and world financial progress supported demand,” the report mentioned.

“If climate circumstances enable crop yields to return to trend-line ranges in 2023, costs for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton and lots of different crops are prone to fall.”

Greater fertilizer, gasoline and feed prices contributed to a “very sharp improve” in farm-production bills in 2022.

“A smaller improve is projected in 2023 and decrease costs for some inputs end in a discount in manufacturing prices in 2024 and 2025,” the report tasks.

Crop losses in 2022 resulted in “excessive budgetary prices” for the crop insurance coverage program in fiscal yr 2023.

“Crop insurance coverage accounts for 45% of projected spending on main farm-related packages over the following decade,” the report mentioned.

Learn the complete report right here: https://cap.unl.edu/….

Todd Neeley could be reached at todd.neeley@dtn.com

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