Analytics Review: Nebraska Football vs. Wisconsin

It was an unseasonably nice afternoon in Memorial Stadium. And no, I’m not talking about temperatures in the high 50s for the final home game. In his second game as offensive coordinator, Dana Holgorsen’s offense exploded for arguably the Nebraska offense’s best game under Matt Rhule. Dylan Raiola played his best game, throwing for over 290 yards with no sacks and no turnovers. For the first time all season, I’d say the Huskers played well in all three phases of the game, and that was enough to send them bowling this December.

The story of this game was the Huskers offense. Emmett Johnson became Nebraska’s second 100-yard running back of the Matt Rhule era, joining Anthony Grant last season against Louisiana Tech. The Huskers had just two of their runs “stuffed” (a run for 0 or fewer yards) on their way to their second-best rushing output this season.

I was struck by the blocking effort in this game. Jahmal Banks held his block on the edge until Dante Dowdell crossed the goal line. Linemen were pulling and still blocking ten yards downfield, helping players fight for extra yards. That type of extra effort made this a special night for the offense.

The Husker’s offense also dominated the control of the ball. The Nebraska offense was built on methodical drives. Even if you remove Nebraska’s two explosive plays, the Huskers offense still managed an EPA of 3.88. This was the first game all season where Nebraska’s non-explosive plays went for a positive EPA.   

Special teams was also a big positive for the Huskers in this game. Nebraska’s special teams performed 12.5 points better than Wisconsin’s this game. This was just the second time this season that Nebraska’s special teams unit was a net positive (Ohio State, 2.86 EPA). John Hohl’s 14 points were the most by a kicker in the Matt Rhule era.

The defense still had its concerning moments this game. Wisconsin performed in the 90th percentile or better in many offensive statistics, including its seven explosive plays. These big plays are a cause for concern against Iowa, as the Wisconsin offense is one of the worst teams in the country in generating explosive plays, at just 5.8%. The Nebraska defense was stout on crucial plays, allowing just a 30% 3rd-down success rate and a 33% red zone success rate.

Going into this game, Nebraska lost nine straight games after winning number five and ten consecutive games to Wisconsin. Many people on social media want to make fun of Nebraska fans for storming the field after getting to bowl eligibility. I’m happy these people can enjoy their laughs while they can. The Matt Rhule rebuild is running on schedule, and we all know what year three looks like for him.

Through 11 games, the Nebraska skill position group is the youngest in college football. The extra practice to build chemistry with each other and get more practice reps running Holgorsen’s offense is invaluable. The 2024 seniors won much less than most in Lincoln would’ve liked. But as they walked off the field for the final time, they put Nebraska football on a new trajectory.

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