Analytics Review: Nebraska Football vs. UCLA

Nebraska football’s game against UCLA was the worst of the Matt Rhule era.

Two weeks ago, the Indiana loss was bad, but the Hoosiers are a good football team that could play for a Big Ten title. While UCLA is a decent team with three wins, they’re unlikely to make a bowl game. Nebraska’s performance against Ohio State suggested they could win all their remaining games. The UCLA game has me questioning whether the Huskers will even make it to a bowl.

This game has shaken my previously unwavering faith in Rhule’s direction for the program. The current staff is running out of time to prove it can lead Nebraska football back to prominence, and tough decisions will almost certainly be needed in December.

The late-down performance told the story of this game. A traditional box score shows that the Huskers “won” this aspect of the game, converting 9-of-17 third downs versus UCLA’s 6-of-13. The Bruins had a massive advantage in terms of EPA: 6.77 vs. the Huskers’ -8.01. The Blackshirts were able to put Bruins quarterback Ethan Garbers in challenging third-down situations, requiring him to gain an average of 6.4 yards. The Bruins made easy work of that distance, averaging 9.8 yards per play on third down. In contrast, the Huskers managed just 3.1 yards per play on third down.

UCLA’s costly mental mistakes masked a subpar performance by the Huskers’ offense. Nebraska only scored points on drives when UCLA was called for an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. Those three penalties alone accounted for 9.48 EPA in Nebraska’s favor. This game was an infamous one-score loss thanks to UCLA’s careless mistakes.

I will give some credit to the playcalling in this game. Nebraska didn’t call many pass plays that targeted a player near the line of scrimmage. Raiola’s 40-yard pass to Jacory Barney was the Huskers’ biggest play outside of the UCLA penalty that extended that drive a few plays earlier. I loved the quick-hitting runs with Dowdell lined up as a fullback. Lining up Heinrich Haarberg at running back is also a unique wrinkle that could set up a big play in a future game.

However, rolling Raiola out to his left on a crucial fourth-and-goal at the five-yard line baffled me. The rollout put Raiola in an awkward position to throw. Carter Nelson’s route likely would have left him short of the end zone, even if the pass had been completed. Neither Isaiah Neyor nor Jahmal Banks were on the field for that play. I’d like to see one of them given the opportunity to make a play or draw a penalty rather than relying on two true freshmen to execute a challenging play to perfection.

Nebraska also lacked urgency during the fourth quarter. The play clock would frequently run for 30 seconds before Nebraska snapped the ball. I had this concern at the end of the first half against Illinois, but the Huskers still managed to score, giving them a halftime lead against the Illini. NU offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield could help Raiola make reads at the line of scrimmage if the offense was set before the headset turns off with 15 seconds left on the play clock.

This game was a missed opportunity for Nebraska. Against Ohio State, special teams and the defense took a giant leap forward compared to the Indiana game. Both units took a step back this week, which is rightfully concerning to fans wanting to see a definite improvement in year two under Rhule.

The Huskers have three games to change the narrative of this season, but their early-season concerns are becoming this team’s tragic flaws later in the year.

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