Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
College football is so back.
The entire country is playing this weekend, meaning every single team is on the field. However, while that might increase the urge to wager heavily, I suggest being judicious with your Week 1 wagers, as teams with new rosters will see their first time on the field together.
Let’s get into my picks for Week 1.
(All times ET)
UTEP @ Nebraska -27.5 (3:30 p.m., FOX)
I love this spot for the Cornhuskers, who are looking to win their opening weekend contest for the first time since 2019.
Matt Rhule is entering his second season at Nebraska with high expectations, after the Cornhuskers added five-star quarterback Dylan Raiola to a team that’s returning a ton of production. Nebraska returns speedsters at wide receiver, quality running backs and four of five offensive linemen.
In short, the offense will be better with a competent quarterback who doesn’t turn the ball over and an offensive line that can block.
Nebraska’s defense returns eight starters off a unit that was fantastic last season. In fact, it was seventh in rushing defense and 27th in passing defense. The D does an outstanding job of limiting explosive plays as well.
UTEP is coming to Lincoln with everything new — a new head coach with new players on offense and defense — and I anticipate it’s going to be a struggle for the Miners. Their offense is mostly composed of transfer players from Austin Peay, who followed new head coach Scotty Walden and a brand new offensive line. All five starters from last season are gone and playing on the road at Nebraska in this unit’s first start is a recipe for disaster.
UTEP returns only three starters on defense and that unit is going to be tested by Nebraska’s size and length.
Also, worth noting is Rhule’s record as a head coach in his second season at a program. After winning two games at Temple in 2013, his 2014 Temple squad opened the season with a 37-7 win at Vanderbilt. While at Baylor, Rhule’s squad opened his second season with a 55-27 win against Abilene Christian after winning just a single game the year before.
We’ve seen this before from Rhule’s teams, and I expect a big win to start Year 2 against an inferior opponent.
PICK: Nebraska (-27.5) to win by more than 27 points
Can Nebraska, Michigan challenge Ohio State in the Big Ten?
Miami @ Florida +3 (3:30 p.m., FOX)
Call me a Mario Cristobal homer, but I believe in this Miami Hurricanes team. The Miami roster has finally matured in the trenches after a few years of building via high school recruiting. The Hurricanes were able to add quarterback Cam Ward and running back Damien Martinez via the portal to complete their offense.
However, Miami’s defense was much improved in 2023, but there are question marks in the secondary this season that could hinder its success against the Gators. Florida’s wide receivers are the best unit on its offense, but the Gators will need their offensive line to step up and give quarterback Graham Mertz time to throw. The Florida offensive line allowed a sack on 10% of pass attempts last season, ranking near the bottom in the country.
But back to Miami.
Whenever I talk positively about the Hurricanes, the response is always the same: “What about Mario Cristobal and his game management?”
Well, that’s a concern … against Cal in Berkeley or when they are playing a three-win team.
I’m not concerned about a Cristobal team in a big game. I saw him, at Oregon, beat Ohio State at The Shoe with a limited quarterback and missing his best pass rusher. His Ducks team beat a top-10 Utah team to win the Pac-12 in 2019, followed by a Rose Bowl win against Wisconsin.
This Miami team has the talent of those Ducks teams, and the Canes will be focused for this game.
PICK: Miami (-3) to lose by fewer than 3 points or win outright
QUICK HITTERS
Idaho @ Oregon Over 62.5 (7:30 p.m., Big Ten Network)
Oregon might score 63 points by itself.
Oregon has played two FCS programs under Dan Lanning and the Ducks scored 70 against Eastern Washington and 81 against Portland State. Now, Idaho is better than those programs, but this is about the Ducks offense. It is even more talented than the last two seasons, with players all over the two-deep looking to make an impact on the field.
When the Ducks eventually go to their second string quarterback, the offense will not miss a beat. Dante Moore is a former five-star quarterback and the future of the program. The Ducks offense will look to score and score and score when Moore comes into the game.
PICK: Over 62.5 points scored
Illinois State @ Iowa -22.5 (noon, Big Ten Network)
This number is disrespectful to Iowa.
I get it folks — Iowa’s offense was poor last season. But that was last season.
This season, Iowa has a new offensive coordinator, a healthy quarterback and a much better offensive line. Also, after hearing all about how awful their offense was all offseason, I’d imagine the Hawkeyes will look to dominate on that side of the ball this weekend.
Illinois State finished 6-5 last season and is no FCS juggernaut. They will be lucky to score a touchdown and even with that score, I think Iowa gets into the 30s.
Remember, the Hawkeyes scored 41 against Western Michigan last season.
PICK: Iowa (-22.5) to win by more than 22 points
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Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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