Why Missouri basketball has an opportunity vs. Vanderbilt: Prediction, scouting report

For Missouri basketball, Wednesday night was a perfect opportunity to pick up its first SEC victory. However, the Tigers failed to capitalize against a short-handed Arkansas team. Now in search of SEC win No. 1, Missouri will travel to face Vanderbilt on Saturday.

The self-inflicted wounds plagued the Tigers in its previous matchup. Missouri (8-13, 0-8) tied a season-high of 18 turnovers, marking the third straight contest where it tallied double-digit numbers in that statistic. 

“You can’t have 18 turnovers at home and expect to win the ballgame or be in it,” coach Dennis Gates said.

Missouri’s 91 points allowed Wednesday was the fifth time this season it allowed 90-plus to an opponent. Arkansas got 56 points came in the paint, something Gates also said was a result of the Tigers’ carelessness of the basketball.

“Those points in the paint came from our turnovers,” Gates said. “They were able to extend those turnovers into 25 total points, so it wasn’t them shooting threes on the break, they were getting in the paint off those fast breaks and obviously executing off our turnovers.”

The Tigers next opponent, Vanderbilt (5-15, 0-7) , isn’t a team that excels in getting steals. Neither was Arkansas, meaning that no matter the opponent, the Tigers are going to have to play clean and efficient basketball. Vanderbilt sits at the bottom of the conference with Missouri, and is also aiming to get its first league victory at home.

Ahead of Saturday’s matchup (2:30 p.m. CT, SEC Network), here’s a look at the Commodores and how they stack up with the Tigers.

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Vanderbilt’s projected starting lineup vs. Missouri basketball

Guard Ezra Manjon (Graduate): 5-foot-11, 170 pounds. Averages: 14.6 points, 3.2 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.2 blocks, 2.1 turnovers. 

Guard Evan Taylor (Graduate): 6-foot-6, 200 pounds. Averages: 8.2 points, 3.7 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.3 blocks, 0.6 turnovers.

Guard Jordan Williams (Sophomore): 6-foot-3, 215 pounds. Averages: 1.6 points, 1.2 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.2 blocks, 0.5 turnovers.

Guard Tyrin Lawrence (Senior): 6-foot-4, 190 pounds. Averages: 14.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.4 blocks, 2.3 turnovers.

Forward Ven-Allen Lubin (Sophomore): 6-foot-8, 226 pounds. Averages: 10.1 points, 5.6 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 0.4 steals, 1.1 blocks, 1.0 turnovers.

Vanderbilt’s rotation

The Commodores don’t have the offensive firepower off the bench that the Tigers have seen in their previous conference games. Freshman guard Jason Rivera-Torres has been the frequent sixth man for the Commodores. Averaging 18.1 minutes per game, Rivera-Torres has tallied 8.2 points per contest. Paul Lewis and Tasos Kamateros both average 16-plus minutes off the bench but each score under five points per game.

How Missouri stacks up with Vaderbilt in scoring, defense and tempo.

KenPom.com tracks adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, which are points scored and allowed per possession. In terms of KenPom’s overall rankings, the Tigers are 116th while the Commodores sit at 193rd. 

Adjusted offensive efficiency:

Missouri: 110.0 (105th nationally)

Vanderbilt: 103.1 (234th)

Adjusted defensive efficiency:

Missouri: 104.9 (145th nationally)

Vanderbilt: 105.8 (166th)

Tempo

Missouri: 67.1 (227th nationally)

Vanderbilt: 66.1 (275th) 

Score Prediction

Missouri 74, Vanderbilt 71: There is no easy game in the SEC and Missouri will need to find a remedy against its inconsistencies and self-inflicting wounds. But the Tigers are a better team on paper and that SEC victory will arrive Saturday.