The Auburn Tigers (2-4) will try to right the ship coming off a bye week when they head to Columbia, MO to take on the Missouri Tigers (5-1) this Saturday afternoon.
Auburn lost three-straight SEC contests before the bye, suffering a season-worst 31-13 loss to Georgia in Athens most recently. Missouri on the other hand has enjoyed a fair amount of success for the second-straight year, although the Tigers have looked shaky-at-best in SEC play. Brady Cook, Luther Burden III, and the Tigers are talented, but a near double overtime loss at home against Vanderbilt followed by a discouraging 41-10 result in College Station shows Missouri is very vulnerable.
Vulnerable or not, Missouri is in a much better spot than Auburn entering this week seven matchup. Because of that, along with the home-field advantage, Missouri is favored by 4.5 points heading into Saturday according to BetMGM. ESPN FPI likes the home team’s chances as well, as the Power Index gives the Tigers a 67.9% chance to improve to 6-1 after this weekend.
Will a deeper dive into the tale of the tape show Auburn has a better chance to earn its first road win than experts believe? As always, we’ll start by analyzing the quarterbacks.
Auburn quarterback Payton Thorne is likely in line to retain his starting job for the remainder of the season after a brief benching in favor of freshman Hank Brown. Over the course of 4 starts and a second half relief appearance against Arkansas, the senior has accumulated 1,238 passing yards, 12 total touchdown, and 6 interceptions. Thorne did play his best game of the year three short weeks ago against Oklahoma before playing a turnover free game against Georgia, showing the senior may be turning the corner on the Plains.
On the other side, Missouri has one of the elite quarterback options in not only the SEC, but the entire country in senior Brady Cook. The senior from St. Louis is coming off a near 30 touchdown season in which he threw for over 3,000 yards and rushed for 300 more. Cook has followed up a fantastic 2023 campaign with a solid start to 2024. In six games, Missouri’s leader has thrown for 1,351 yards while scoring 11 touchdowns and turning the ball over just once. Cook isn’t quite on pace to surpass his gaudy statistical totals from last season, but he still is far and away the better quarterback in Saturday’s contest.
The offensive skill position battle is much closer. Auburn’s pass catchers as a unit get the slight edge over their Tiger counterparts, but future NFL second day draft pick Luther Burden III is clearly the best receiving option in this game. Burden III is a big-play, electrifying receiver with game breaking ability. Much like Auburn’s KeAndre Lambert-Smith, Burden III is not built like a prototypical “WR1”, but his 5-foot-11 frame only adds to his quickness and downhill speed ability. The junior isn’t the only elite option at Brady Cook’s deposal, as senior wide receiver Theo Wease Jr. actually leads Missouri in receiving yardage (407 yards to Burden III’s 398), giving the Tigers a fantastic one-two punch on the outside.
Auburn’s receivers stack up well, although Cam Coleman’s inability to stay on the field paired with the inconsistencies of Robert Lewis and Malcolm Simmons give Missouri the slight edge in the pass catching department. Auburn running back Jarquez Hunter is the clear top runner in this matchup however, giving Hugh Freeze’s Tigers an advantage they desperately need on the offensive side of the ball.
On the defensive end, things are almost equally as even. Auburn’s defense has taken a major step back after the unit was the strength of the team a season ago. In four games against Power 4 competition, DJ Durkin’s defense is allowing 25.75 points per game, most recently allowing 31 points in Athens against Georgia. Missouri’s defense has been slightly worse, albeit in one less game. In three games against Boston College, Texas A&M, and Vanderbilt, the Tigers have given up 92 points. Missouri doesn’t offer many game breakers on the defensive end, although every starting defensive back has gobbled up exactly one interception. The 2-4 Tigers are much of the same way, although cornerback Kayin Lee is probably the most likely player in this game to have a successful professional career in the NFL.
After taking a look at the tale of the tape, this battle of Tiger teams is fairly even in terms of the X’s and O’s. The difference in this game is likely going to come down to the home-field advantage and superior quarterback play on Brady Cook, making this 4.5-point spread seem like a fair line.
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