Missouri vs. Texas A&M score prediction by expert college football model

SEC football gets underway this weekend with two ranked teams on the same field as No. 9 Missouri travels to No. 25 Texas A&M in college football’s Week 6 action, so let’s take a look at the updated predictions for the game from a proven expert model.

Missouri is still perfect through 4 games, including the SEC opener two weeks ago, but played the last 2 close, winning by a combined 11 points.

Texas A&M dropped its season opener against Notre Dame, but has won 3 games since, emerging as the first SEC team to go 2-0 in conference play with wins over Florida and Arkansas.

What do the experts have to say about the matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Missouri and Texas A&M compare in this SEC football game, along with an updated score prediction.

So far, the simulations favor the Tigers over the Aggies in this road matchup.

SP+ predicts that Missouri will defeat Texas A&M by a projected score of 29 to 24 and will win the game by an expected 5.2 points.

The model gives Mizzou a 63 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 133-114-2 against the spread with a 53.8 win percentage.

Texas A&M is a slight 2.5 point favorite against Missouri, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel listed the total at 48.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Missouri at -130 and for Texas A&M at +110 to win outright.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take …

Other analytical models also favor the Tigers to come out ahead this weekend.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Missouri is projected to win the game in 51.5 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves Texas A&M as the expected winner in the remaining 48.5 percent of sims.

Missouri is projected to be just 0.7 points better than Texas A&M on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Missouri is sixth among SEC teams with a 32.2 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 9 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Texas A&M a win total projection of 8 games and a 12.3 percent chance at the playoff.

More … Missouri vs. Texas A&M prediction: What the analytics say

When: Sat., Oct. 5
Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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