Illinois vs. Missouri Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Sunday, December 22

Illinois and Missouri meet in a semi-neutral floor meeting on Sunday with each team looking for a strong non-conference victory. 

The Tigers are enjoying a bounceback campaign this season that already features a win against Kansas. Can the team score another victory against a team with Final Four aspirations in Illinois? The Fighting Illini have thrived on the defensive end, but are still searching for consistency on offense around star freshman guard Kasparas Jakucionis. Can the team find it against Missouri? 

Here’s our betting preview. 

Spread

Moneyline

Total: 154.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Illinois

Kasparas Jakucionis: The 6’6” point guard has thrived to start his college career, averaging 16 points, six rebounds and nearly six assists per game. Jakucionis is a deft three-point shooter as well, hitting 42% of his threes for the perimeter oriented Fighting Illini offense. 

Missouri

Mark Mitchell: The Duke transfer has thrived in the new setting, averaging 13 points with five rebounds per game while also providing strong defense as an interior presence with more than a block per game to go with a steal.

Missouri’s heavy ball pressure defense will be a test for Jakucionis, who does have a near-27% turnover rate, but overall this Illinois offense rates out as a strong unit at protecting the ball, ranking top 60 in turnover rate. 

With the Tigers aggressive defense, it is vulnerable to letting up second chances, bottom 30 in the country in defensive rebounding rate, which is impactful with the Illinois’ offense elite at generating offensive rebounds, top 30 in the nation. 

Missouri’s defense is a bit of a boom-or-bust unit, and I also believe the offense is due to regress after starting the season posting a top three effective field goal percentage in the country at nearly 60% while posting a top three free throw rate. 

Illinois’ defense has a ton of length and shuts off the perimeter for opponents, allowing a bottom 40 three-point rate while ranking top five in effective field goal percentage allowed. 

This may be an up-and-down affair, but I like this matchup for Illinois to hand Missouri a well overdue loss. 

PICK: Illinois -3.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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