How have opening four games impacted Missouri football’s College Football Playoff chances?

The Tigers are exactly where they were expected to be.

It has lacked some flash. It has probably sent some heart rates racing. But Missouri football is 4-0 as it works through its first idle week of the season after a double-overtime win over Vanderbilt, a ranked victory over Boston College and shutouts of Buffalo and Murray State.

But what has that done for the Tigers’ shot at a spot in the first edition of the expanded, 12-team College Football Playoff?

Here’s the rundown:

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Has Missouri football improved chances of CFP berth?

The Tigers, according to ESPN’s playoff predictor after the Week 4 slate, are the 10th most likely team to earn a spot in the 12-team playoff. The algorithm gives Missouri a 40% chance of making the field. 

Once you factor in conference-champion autobids, that’s essentially aligned with where Missouri fell in this week’s US LBM Coaches Poll and AP Top 25, where the Tigers were the No. 11-ranked team in the country. 

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In a hypothetical scenario where all voters are fortune tellers (they are not), this exact scenario plays out (it will not) and the CFP selection committee is in agreement (it likely won’t be), Mizzou gets the last at-large spot in the field — assuming no Group of Five team jumps into the top 12 — with the No. 11 seed, sending it on the road.

Missouri hasn’t lost and hasn’t really done anything to hurt its playoff odds. But the prognosticators, for what that’s worth, are jumping ship.

None of ESPN’s 11 forecasters put Mizzou in their projected 12-team field after Week 4. That’s down from three CFP projections after the Boston College win, which was down from seven selections after MU beat Buffalo.

Here’s the deal, though: Missouri has kept winning, and that, by default, makes its odds better. Especially as teams in the CFP conversation — looking at you, Florida State and Kansas — have faded early.

ESPN gave Missouri a 37.2% chance to make the CFP during the preseason. That’s up slightly to 40%.

As long as Missouri keeps winning, those percentages will rise. 

But what happens when losses come?

Will 10-2 cut it?

Here’s where things get tricky. 

Missouri has won the games it was expected to win. Let’s say the Tigers follow that trend. They’ll likely be underdogs at Texas A&M and Alabama. The home Oklahoma matchup and road South Carolina game, as it stands, will tilt in MU’s favor.

There’s no question that 11-1 gets in. If Missouri wins seven more games this year, there’s a meaningful December game coming, and it’s likely coming to Columbia.

But the race isn’t completely in MU’s hands if it goes 10-2. 

ESPN’s playoff predictor — and it should be noted this hinges on a multiplicity of currently undetermined factors — has MU’s shot at making the CFP at 77% if it goes 10-2 with losses to Texas A&M and Alabama. That rises to 79% if it beats Texas A&M but falls at South Carolina.

The Tigers’ best bet at making it, at that record, is if there is a six-berth SEC. For that to happen, it’ll need a little help from the ACC and Big 12.

The two leagues cannibalizing themselves would help. Both league champions get straight in, but no at-large spots are guaranteed. What happens if a dominant regular-season ACC or Big 12 team falls in their conference title game?

There’s a world that brings two schools — one auto bid, one at-large — from one or both of those leagues into the fold. For instance, does a 12-1 Miami get left out if it loses to Clemson for the conference title? Seems unlikely.

The good news for MU in regards to the Big 12 is that undefeated Utah must face the three other remaining undefeated teams (BYU; UCF; Iowa State) in the league in the regular season, meaning some losses among the current favorites are guaranteed. That league looks well on its way to having just a single CFP representative. But if Utah runs the table then falls to, say, Iowa State in the title game? That forces a decision.

In short: The more ACC and Big 12 regular-season chaos, the better for Missouri.

Playing out potential paths 

We ran scenarios on ESPN’s playoff predictor to see where that puts the Tigers in the postseason. The algorithm does not let you pick results for the Auburn, UMass, Oklahoma, Mississippi State and Arkansas games, so keep it in mind that those are being automatically marked as wins in these scenarios:

• Missouri goes 11-1 with wins at Texas A&M and South Carolina, a loss at Alabama and no SEC title game berth: No. 6 Missouri hosts No. 11 Penn State in Columbia.
• Missouri goes 11-1 with wins at Texas A&M and South Carolina, a loss at Alabama and an SEC title game loss: No. 6 Missouri hosts No. 11 Notre Dame in Columbia.
• Missouri goes 10-2 with a win at South Carolina and losses at Texas A&M and Alabama: No. 11 Missouri at No. 6 Alabama.
• Missouri goes 10-2 with a win at Texas A&M and losses at Alabama and South Carolina: No. 10 Missouri at No. 7 Tennessee.
• Missouri goes 10-2 with a win at Alabama and losses at Texas A&M and South Carolina: No. 9 Missouri at No. 8 Tennessee.