The Minnesota Twins Have a Worsening Bullpen Problem. Will the Solution Come From the Rotation?

Is it possible that we’ve been looking in the wrong place for a solution to the team’s bullpen woes? The general expectation is that Louie Varland will be the knight in shining armor that emerges over the hillside to provide necessary reinforcement as the club pushes toward the postseason. If last season is any indication of what to expect, that could very well be the case. But the Twins have another arm that could provide a similar boost–only, he’s a little busy at the moment.

Rookie David Festa is currently holding down a spot in the starting rotation, and he’s mostly held his own since his debut in late June. Many are counting on him, along with fellow rookies Zebby Matthews and Simeon Woods Richardson, to continue finding success in a starting role through the end of the year. But each of those three young arms is quickly approaching (or has already surpassed) reasonable expectations for increases to their respective workloads. And while they certainly appear to be the team’s best options to continue starting games in the near term, should they look into transitioning Festa to a relief role as the postseason approaches?

It’s easy to shoot down the idea based on the rotation’s needs, and realistically, the Twins could very well feel the same way. However, Festa’s offerings are the building blocks that make a strong reliever, and after a few more starts in the coming weeks, it could behoove the Twins to seek a way to scale his workload back, while keeping him as a key contributor.

Festa’s three-pitch repertoire features a fastball that can touch upper-90s velocity, and two rock-solid secondary offerings that have underperformed at the MLB level thus far. Perhaps giving him shorter outings will allow for further success with his slider and changeup, since his opponents wouldn’t see them in multiple at-bats in a given game. That leads to the biggest talking point when discussing the effectiveness of a transition to the bullpen – his numbers the first time through the order.

When getting their first taste of Festa in a game, opponents have been held to an anemic .342 OPS, while striking out 30.2% of the time. Somehow, those numbers appear to be improving as he gets more exposure to the league. They’re testaments to his sheer nastiness.

Just this month, Festa has struck out 39% of batters faced when going through the order the first time, which is tied for fifth-highest among all starters, according to Inside Edge. He has also allowed a paltry .147 slugging percentage in those instances this month, which is third-best in baseball. He’s racking up plenty of punchouts, and limiting damage when opponents do make contact. That’s an excellent starting point for this type of transition if the Twins decide to explore this route, even before getting any theoretical boost from being able to empty the tank in a shorter outing.

Festa has also started to show increased effectiveness against left-handed hitters, which is a soft spot with the current crop of Twins’ relievers–given the fact that Caleb Thielbar is suddenly their lone lefty. Festa has struck out 37% (16/43) of lefties he’s faced this month, and they’ve only mustered a .621 OPS against him in that time frame. That’s more than passable as a medium-leverage arm, and it could be just what the bullpen needs as they head down the home stretch of the season.

Of course, the question then becomes who will take Festa’s place in the starting rotation, and why wouldn’t they just keep him as a starter and move one of these other options to a relief role? Beyond Varland, the options that are sitting in the Triple-A rotation include Randy Dobnak and Andrew Morris. The team also added Caleb Boushley to the big-league roster Tuesday, giving them a stretched-out arm with plenty of starting experience.

Dobnak has a career 6.82 ERA in 33 innings pitched as a reliever, and his stuff has been absolutely hammered to the tune of a .331/.364/.538 clip when opponents see him out of the pen. Boushley hasn’t inspired much hope since joining the organization, and he has a 4.97 ERA for the season with the Saints. Morris is an intriguing piece going forward, and he is yet another archetype in the Twins’ strategy of drafting starting pitchers in the middle and late rounds of the draft, then tweaking their mechanics to amplify their development. But it’s hard to imagine them pumping Morris through that development, then throwing him into a playoff bullpen when he started the season in High-A ball. Each of those three options might make more sense as spot starters at the big-league level, should Festa move to relief.

At the end of the day, the Twins may decide that moving Festa (or any of the three rookie starters) to the bullpen would be more trouble than it’s worth. But there are a couple of glaring question marks in the relief corps, and the club should do whatever they can to address them before it’s too late. That may include looking to their encouraging rotation pieces for answers.