Should the Vikings use Justin Jefferson like Cooper Kupp?

EAGAN — When Kevin O’Connell was employed by the Minnesota Vikings, Justin Jefferson was on the Professional Bowl. The very first thing he mentioned concerning the new coach: That O’Connell’s former group the Los Angeles Rams positive know the best way to use their No. 1 receiver.

It hasn’t at all times been the smoothest trip with prime receivers’ utilization in recent times, in any case.

When Jefferson spoke with Twin Cities reporters for the primary time this offseason, he didn’t draw back from comparisons to Rams famous person Cooper Kupp.

“Seeing what Cooper Kupp did final 12 months, him getting near the document, him being so open so many occasions, there’s a number of issues on movie that I watched and checked out and I’m enthusiastic about this 12 months,” Jefferson mentioned.

In an look on Professional Soccer Speak final week, O’Connell leaned into it.

“The one factor about Cooper Kupp this previous season is he lined up in a number of completely different spots,” O’Connell mentioned. “It was onerous for defenses to actually know the place he was. He did a number of various things. He had an affect in a number of phases of our offense past simply catching a number of balls and scoring a number of touchdowns. There was an enormous function for Cooper due to his willingness to be fully solidified in each section, each the run and the go.”

“I see that with Justin. I see an unbelievable, unbelievable skillset, however I additionally see a participant we will transfer round. We will make it onerous for defenses to know the place he’s going to be. He doesn’t must line up in the identical spot on a regular basis. He doesn’t must run the identical sort of routes on a regular basis.”

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So how a lot completely different will Jefferson’s function look this 12 months if he’s used extra like Kupp? How a lot completely different ought to it’s, contemplating Jefferson has already had unbelievable success to start out his profession? With a view to determine that out, we have to examine how they had been deployed.

The foremost contrasts reside in how typically Kupp lined up within the slot and his common depth of goal. L.A.’s famous person ran 65.5% of his routes out of the slot, whereas Jefferson was solely moved inside 31.0% of the time. Naturally, Jefferson noticed a better proportion of intermediate and deep passes. The common Jefferson goal traveled 13.6 yards via the air, whereas throws in Kupp’s route went solely 8.6 yards from scrimmage. Out of the highest 30 most focused receivers within the NFL, Jefferson ranked seventh highest, whereas Kupp was twenty eighth in depth of goal.*

*(All information by way of Professional Soccer Focus until indicated in any other case)

It ought to come as no shock that Jefferson had probably the most deep targets of 20-plus yards via the air (39), whereas Kupp had 23 out of 191 targets.

The Vikings can be unwise to scale back Jefferson’s intermediate and deep targets by a lot. Final 12 months when throwing the ball greater than 10 yards via the air towards Jefferson, Kirk Cousins accomplished 57 of 100 passes for 1,249 yards (12.5 YPA) and threw eight touchdowns, two interceptions, good for a 119.9 quarterback ranking.

Kupp solely noticed 67 such throws, however was extremely efficient, catching greater than 65% of passes thrown over 10 yards. You may both surmise that the Rams ought to have thrown deep to Kupp extra typically or that they solely went downfield to him when he was extensive open. The numbers trace considerably towards the latter, with Jefferson dealing with 20 contested on throws past 10 yards, whereas Kupp solely fought for the ball 10 occasions.

Neither participant was used commonly within the display screen recreation however Kupp was far more environment friendly, gaining 8.9 yards per try on 21 screens versus 5.8 YPA for Jefferson on 16 screens.

The rubber hits the highway on the brief passing recreation, the place Kupp obtained 95 targets and Jefferson noticed simply 42 fast throws. They averaged practically an equivalent yards per try (8.3 vs. 8.2).

You may see from this NFL NextGen monitoring the variations within the varieties of routes. Beneath is Kupp’s routes on targets within the Tremendous Bowl:

Now examine that to Jefferson this 12 months in opposition to the Pittsburgh Steelers:

Jefferson ran quite a few deep crossers and a deep nook with a handful of fast routes combined in, whereas virtually all of Kupp’s targets got here on fast outs and slants.

Knowledge collected by Yahoo! Sports activities’ Matt Harmon at his website Reception Notion from 2020 exhibits how typically the Rams leaned on slants, flats, curls and out routes.

In Jefferson’s rookie 12 months, he ran a excessive percentages of slants however way more 9 or “go” routes than Kupp and virtually by no means ran flat routes, which had been a staple of Kupp’s route tree.

Jefferson clearly ran all varieties of routes and, per PFF, he equally break up his slot and outdoors reps between the left and proper sides.

What about movement? A key a part of the Rams’ offense underneath Sean McVay is shifting receivers round pre-snap. Per ESPN, the Rams had been fifth in most pre-snap movement and Vikings had been sixteenth. The distinction between Kupp and Jefferson’s movement utilization isn’t as a lot as you would possibly suppose. Per PFF, Kupp went in movement 118 occasions and Jefferson 88 occasions.

Vikings offensive coordinator Wes Phillips defined final week that movement is about “the flexibility to have the ability to transfer these guys while you need to and get them within the spots the place they are often handiest is big.” He used an instance of Kupp being motioned to the linebacker aspect when the opposing protection is taking part in zone protection.

“In the event that they’re going to line up in the event that they’re in nickel protection…they’ve an additional DB, they’re going to line that nickel to the passing power most of the time,” Phillips mentioned. “And the final drive within the Tremendous Bowl, when you watch, we had a number of performs the place Cooper was aligned over to the tight finish aspect away from the passing power, so when you’re in a zone protection, then you definately’ve obtained the linebacker.”

Total, Kupp wasn’t far more open than Jefferson total, in line with NextGen information. The common separation when catching the ball for Kupp was 3.6 yards and three.0 yards for Jefferson. In keeping with PFF, they confronted very comparable percentages of man protection (25% for Kupp, 30% for Jefferson) and ranked No. 1 and No. 2 by PFF grade versus man.

“They’re completely different gamers, however I feel they’re each very instinctive and each have a pure capability to separate,” Phillips mentioned.

Kupp and Jefferson have separated themselves as two of the most effective extensive receivers within the NFL. Jefferson is unlikely to wrestle with any changes to his function and may very well be extra of the centerpiece of the Vikings’ offense if he’s given extra throws between 0-10 yards via the air like Kupp. Extra slot snaps is prone to make that attainable.

Nonetheless, O’Connell shouldn’t throw out all of the Kubiak affect in Jefferson’s recreation. In any case, he was an elite deep receiver, got here inside one go of setting the Vikings’ receiving yards document, ranked No. 3 within the NFL by PFF grade, had the fifteenth greatest yards per catch and scored the sixth most touchdowns final 12 months.