Penn State Vs. Minnesota: How to Watch, Story Lines, Predictions

For Penn State football, keeping a low profile represents the best path Saturday at Minnesota. The Nittany Lions want to win, comfortably and quietly, let Ohio State and Indiana own college football’s oxygen this weekend and get to their regular-season finale against Maryland.

Penn State is in prime position to host a first-round College Football Playoff game, no matter how much College Football Influencers argue against it. The playoff committee has made that clear: Penn State has been No. 4 the past two weeks and should remain there, as long as Ohio State wins Saturday over the Hoosiers. A Buckeyes’ loss reignites debate. Penn State can hedge that debate with a no-doubt win at Minnesota that quietly appeases even the scoreboard-watchers.

What to expect from the Penn State-Minnesota game? Here’s the breakdown, including where to watch, what to watch, and our predictions.

No. 4 Penn State (9-1) vs. Minnesota (6-4)

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How to watch, stream the Penn State-Minnesota game

Penn State is playing on CBS for the second straight week and the third time this season. Fans can stream the game on the CBS Sports app as well. Brad Nessler and ary Danielson have the broadcast, and Jenny Dell will conduct sideline interviews. Penn State fans who can’t watch should turn to the Penn State Sports Network for the radio call with Steve Jones and Jack Ham. The games also is available on SiriusXM channels 83/158/196.

What is the betting line for Penn State-Minnesota?

The Nittany Lions are 11-point road favorites, according to DraftKings. The over/under is 45 points. Penn State is 9-0 as a favorite this season and 5-4 against the spread.

What Are the Primary Penn State-Minnesota Story Lines?

On the Penn State Coaches Show this week, Nittany Lions coach James Franklin said something interesting: “Watching them on tape, [Minnesota] is very good on defense, maybe the best defense we’ve played this year.” That’s noteworthy, considering Ohio State’s defense, which held Penn State without a touchdown for the first time in 10 years, is ranked first by ESPN’s SP+, and Minnesota’s is 15th. The Gophers excel in takeaways (20, including 16 interceptions) and do so by playing largely a zone defense.

Freshman safety Koi Perich is Minnesota’s highest-graded defender (84.9, according to Pro Football Focus) and leads the Big Ten with five interceptions. Penn State quarterback Drew Allar noted that Minnesota’s secondary does ball-hawk but also generates turnovers through defensive line pressure. But Allar has proven capable of escaping pressure, beating zones with his checkdown receivers and avoiding interceptions. For Allar, identifying zone weaknesses (should Minnesota stick with it) with Tyler Warren and his underneath receivers will be essential. He also’s going to look to stretch the field, particularly when Penn State gets into its tempo offense.

Meanwhile, Minnesota’s offensive strategy favors Penn State’s front-four aggressiveness and back-four experience. The Golden Gophers don’t have the receiving trio of Rashod Bateman, Tyler Johnson and Chris Autman-Bell they relied on to beat the Nittany Lions in 2019. Minnesota ranks 10th in the Big Ten in passing, though quarterback Max Brosner does have some chemistry with receiver Daniel Jackson (63 receptions, three for touchdowns). But Minnesota isn’t an explosive offense. The Gophers rank 96th nationally in explosive-play rate (12.32 percent). Penn State is sixth (17.91 percent).

Penn State Players to Watch

Nicholas Singleton: The running back is overdue for a big game. He hasn’t rushed for 50 yards in the past five games and hasn’t topped 100 since Bowling Green. Singleton looked healthy in limited snaps last week at Purdue and is ready to unleash.

AJ Harris: Penn State’s dip into the SEC for cornerbacks Harris and Jalen Kimber has proven smart. Watch for Harris on Minnesota’s Jackson.

Tre Wallace: Penn State needs a receiver to relieve some of the offensive pressure from Tyler Warren. If Minnesota overloads the tight end, Wallace should reap the benefits. He has to take advantage.

Minnesota Players to Watch

Max Brosmer: Minnesota’s quarterback has been underrated this year. He ranks seventh in the Big Ten in passer rating and has a completion rate of 67.1 percent. He’s not a big-play quarterback; Minnesota ranks 12th in the Big Ten in pass plays of 20+ yards. But he’s efficient and reasonably mistake-proof. Penn State can’t give him reason to believe.

Cody Lindenberg: Can’t highlight too many Minnesota defenders. The linebacker covers a lot of ground as Minnesota’s leading tackler and really attacks the run.

Darius Taylor: Minnesota will try to run with Taylor, though its offense ranks 17th in the Big Ten in rushing offense. Taylor has had a couple big games (144 yards vs. USC, 131 vs. Illinois), but Rutgers held him to 28 yards on 10 carries last week.

The Predictions

Mark Wogenrich: This game has some potential red flags. If Penn State can’t get the run game going and starts throwing hastily, Minnesota’s defense will capitalize. Now, the Gophers don’t have a counter for Tyler Warren, so the Nittany Lions could ride him as they did last week at Purdue. This is a capable but not great Minnesota offense that Penn State should shutter. Still not feeling an overwhelming offensive performance, though. Penn State 24, Minnesota 13

Daniel Mader: The Golden Gophers’ secondary alone (16 interceptions) is enough to give Penn State another late-season challenge. However, based on the way the Nittany Lions took care of business against Washington and Purdue, I don’t think there’s any reason to doubt their current momentum. I think Penn State pulls away in the third quarter, owning the ground game on both sides of the ball for win No. 10. Penn State 31, Minnesota 14

More Penn State Football

How Minnesota is preparing for No. 4 Penn State

Is Penn State’s defense getting overlooked this season?

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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