Ohio State will look for some Big Ten consistency on the road against Minnesota. 

The Golden Gophers are struggling to keep up with high-end competition, yet to beat a top 80 team in the country thus far. Can the team score a home upset against Ohio State? The Buckeyes have yet to win a true road game but are laying a handful of points on the road on Monday night.

Here’s our best bet for this one. 

Spread

Moneyline

Total: 136.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Ohio State

Bruce Thornton: Enjoying a career-best year, Thornton is up to nearly 17 points per game while shooting 54% from the field and 44% from three. The veteran guard will be tasked with guiding the Buckeyes to a road win as the team looks to keep its three-point shooting at a high. 

Minnesota 

Dawson Garcia: The senior is averaging 19 points per game with seven rebounds while also showcasing improved playmaking with two assists per game. The Gophers are struggling to find consistency on offense, but a lot of it is coming from the 6’11” senior. 

Ohio State continues to be an overvalued commodity after a strong start to the season. The team is ripe for regression, including three percent overall with a massive drop-off expected from beyond the arc (four percent), per ShotQuality. 

The team will face a Minnesota team that grades out as a better defense according to shot quality and does a great job of contesting perimeter shots, which is a key to Ohio State’s offense. The Gophers are 38th in the country in three-point rate allowed, which can slow down Ohio State’s offense that ranks top 30 in three-point percentage. 

The Gophers play at a prodding pace, bottom 10 in the country in adjusted tempo, and Ohio State’s defense continues to be overvalued due to poor shot-making marks, ranking 14th in effective field goal percentage. However, the team is outside of the top half of the country in turnover percentage, defensive rebounding rate, and opponent free throw rate. 

In a low possession battle, give me the home underdog to keep this close. 

PICK: Minnesota +5.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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