Every year, I feel like I end up locking on certain pitchers and teams and bet them more than others. It almost never is intentional; usually, I find a team or player I like, we win with them consistently, and I ride the horse until it is time to get off. That’s a bit of how I feel with both the Twins and Rangers who battle in this one.

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I have said that the Chicago White Sox are the biggest surprise in all of baseball, but the Minnesota Twins might be willing to make a strong argument about it. This was a year that the Twins were supposed to be garbage and be more likely to trade people away (like they did last year) than they would be looking to make a move for the club. I can’t say it is entirely due to Byron Buxton, one of the names floated in trade rumors last year and in the offseason, but he is having a great campaign and has the Twins just five games below .500.

One of the other guys that you can attribute the success of this year to is today’s starter, Joe Ryan. If the Twins do decide to take Ryan to the market, he will have many suitors and should bring back a big haul. Ryan has posted a 4-3 record with a 3.17 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. He has been slightly worse on the road than at home, but it hasn’t been a significant issue. He was great in May, posting a 1.73 ERA, but June has seen him make three starts and allow eight earned runs, including four homers. Rangers hitters have struggled significantly against him, hitting just .143 against him.

The Texas Rangers are still in the mix for the American League West division. Before you say, “Well, yeah, it’s only the middle of June.” I bring this up because they are just two games back of the Mariners, and the Rangers really haven’t played all that well this season. I think there is a lot of potential for this team to add a bat, and he could make a major difference. If they added Buxton, for example, the Rangers might be the favorite to win the division given how everyone else is playing.

I’m not trying to discuss hypothetical trades, though. The pitching staff might be enough to carry them to a Wild Card or division title anyway. Today’s starter, Jack Leiter, isn’t the best on the roster, but he’s been good. Leiter is 3-6 with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. At home, he has been okay, going 2-2 with a 4.14 ERA. He has allowed four or more earned runs in seven of his 14 outings. Twins hitters are batting .417 against Leiter in just 12 at-bats, with Buxton going 2-for-2 with a double, a homer and three RBIs.

I think it probably makes sense to play Buxton to get 2+ bases here today. I get that he probably did all of this damage to Leiter in one game, but it is still worth seeing if he can get it done. He is having a good season, and Leiter isn’t a guy who is going to make you nervous very often about throwing zeroes.

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I also think we probably should play the game overall. I think the Twins are the correct side in this game. There are a lot of times that I’d back the Rangers, as I think they have the better overall team, but in this one, the pitching mismatch is too strong. Give me the Ryan-led Twins, through five, on the moneyline.

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