Minneapolis, MN
Another Minneapolis Miracle: Vikings had a 0.69% chance to beat Colts
The Vikings have confirmed time and time once more this season you could by no means rely them out of a combat, however Saturday’s win stretched the credulity of even essentially the most optimistic of fan.
How unlikely was the 39-36 additional time triumph? Properly at a number of instances all through the sport, the Vikings had lower than a 1% likelihood of profitable.
That is in line with NumberFire, which has damaged down the chances of every staff profitable at varied factors of the sport.
Credit score: Numberfire.
Curiously, the worst odds for the Vikings to win did not come within the 2nd quarter after they went in at half-time 33-0 down.
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They began the third quarter with a 1.28% likelihood of profitable, which lowered to 0.73% as they commenced their first drive, with KJ Osborn ultimately scoring a landing on Kirk Cousins’ cross, at which level their possibilities rose to 2.32%.
However the Vikings’ lowest likelihood of profitable – 0.69% – got here after this, when Chase McLaughlin kicked a 52-yard subject aim to offer the Colts a 36-7 lead with 4:59 left within the third quarter.
Even after the Vikings scored two extra touchdowns by way of CJ Ham and Justin Jefferson, making it 36-21 with 12:53 left within the sport, their possibilities of profitable have been nonetheless simply 3.4%. Adam Thielen’s TD with 5:34 left solely shifted them to five.55%.
It wasn’t till Dalvin Cook dinner tore off the 64-yard landing and Kirk Cousins accomplished the 2-point try with a throw to TJ Hockenson that the chances leapt nearer to 50-50.
In additional time, the Vikings gained the toss, however have been pressured to punt simply contained in the Colts’ half, and as soon as once more the pendulum swung again into the Colts favor.
The protection was in a position to cease Matt Ryan midway down the sphere, and with solely a few minutes left the chances grew in favor of a tie, just for Cousins to steer a drive into subject aim vary, with Greg Joseph then securing a well-known victory.