Projecting Brook Lopez’s Next Contract With Milwaukee Bucks

As Brook Lopez prepares to enter free agency this summer, he’s the perfect microcosm of the Milwaukee Bucks’ offseason dilemma.

Lopez is coming off a terrific season in which he averaged 15.9 points, 6.7 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game. Those averages all represent the highest throughout his five-year tenure as a Buck and his best since the 2016-17 season with the Brooklyn Nets. Oh, he also set another career-high by knocking down 37.4 percent of his 4.7 three-point attempts per game.

He’s the perfect modern big man to play alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo on offense. What Antetokounmpo lacks in an outside shot, Lopez provides with daring range and the willingness to pull the trigger from any spot on the floor. His ability to drag the opposing team’s big man far away from the hoop gave Antetokounmpo and the other Bucks’ drivers more space to work with in the paint.

He also understood his role in the bigger picture, finding the sweet spot for three-point attempts per game. The first year he arrived in Milwaukee, he was bombing away from the outside 6.5 times per contest. That number went all the way down to four the last couple of years, but he seemed to find the Goldilocks amount in 2022-23.

His defense has been even more impressive in Mike Budenholzer’s drop scheme (a scheme that might change under the new head coach next season). He’s figured out how to use every inch and ounce of his massive 7-foot-1 and 282-pound frame to contest any and every shot that comes near him.

The Bucks’ defense was elite when he was on the floor, posting a 108.0 defensive rating (that would’ve been good enough for third in the NBA). He worked to erase every shot and make the ones he couldn’t get to as challenging as possible. The reward was a spot on the NBA’s All-Defensive First team and a third-place finish in the Defensive Player of the Year voting.

The biggest downside is his age. He turned 35-years-old at the end of the regular season, and it’s fair to wonder how much longer he’ll be able to play at this level.

Lopez—along with Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday and others—represents an aging core in Milwaukee. The Bucks just bowed out in the first round of the playoffs—how willing are they to run it back with the same team? Remember, they might not have another choice thanks to the new Collective Bargaining Agreement that severely limits the tools at their disposal to add talent.

Having just finished a four-year, $52 million deal that saw him earn $13.9 million in 2022-23, Lopez is in line for a nice raise this offseason. The maximum deal he can sign with Milwaukee is a contract worth up to $54 million over three years (due to the “over-38-rule,” he can’t sign a deal for four years or longer since he would turn 38 during that contract).

The good news is Milwaukee doesn’t have to wait until unrestricted free agency begins on July 1st, as they are able to negotiate an extension with Lopez once the season ends and before June 30th.

If Lopez were to sign a flat contract with Milwaukee, it would pay him $18 million over each of the three years. According to Spotrac, there are currently 10 centers who make more than that. In ascending order of their 2023-24 cap hit, they are Jarret Allen, Clint Capela, Myles Turner, Deandre Ayton, Bam Adebayo, Karl Anthony-Towns, Anthony Davis, Rudy Gobert, Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid.

Other centers in the $17-to-$13 million range are Jusuf Nurkic, Mitchell Robinson, Jonas Valanciunas, Wendell Carter Jr and Steven Adams.

Based on the contract he’s eligible for and the comparison of other players at his position, his career year couldn’t have come at a better time. He squashed any concerns about the back injury that cost him most of the 2021-22 campaign and demonstrated his value on both ends of the court.

Looking at how the Bucks’ current salary cap lines up with Antetokounmpo’s final guaranteed year in 2024-25 (he has a player option for 2025-26 and is extension eligible September 22nd) and Jrue Holiday with a player option for 2024-25, it makes most sense for Milwaukee to line up the current iteration of this team with that timeline.

A two-year deal would give Lopez another payday while also avoiding a long-term deal for someone entering their late 30s. Giving him an average of $16 million would make him the 12th-highest paid center next year.

Contract Projection: Two years for $32 million