Khris Middleton nearing return

This afternoon at 4:30 PM Central, the Bucks submitted their initial injury report for tomorrow evening’s game in Sacramento, and one very notable name is no longer listed as out:

Ahead of the Lakers game on Friday night, Doc Rivers told assembled media that Middleton could play on Tuesday, and then even suggested that yesterday was a possibility. While that didn’t happen, it seemed likely that Middleton’s return from the left ankle sprain that’s kept him out since February 6th was imminent. Though he hasn’t experienced any setbacks, according to both Doc and Middleton himself, that didn’t stop pessimism about his health in both the near and long term. As expected, that was unfounded.

To be clear, Middleton’s injury was a lot more significant than most people believed. The Bucks are notoriously close-to-the-vest about their players’ injuries, with Middleton perhaps the prime example, so we never got public word about the sprain’s severity. It occurred when he landed on Kevin Durant’s foot, who had come into Middleton’s landing zone in Phoenix just over a month ago; after the game, the Bucks forward was in a walking boot and on crutches.

That seemed to indicate it was a bit more than the type of sprain that might make a player day-to-day and miss a game or three. As we’ve seen both this year and last, Giannis has popped up on the injury report with “ankle sprain” a few times but nevertheless played. Indeed, Rivers told us right out of the All-Star break that not only was Middleton doing well, but if it was the playoffs, he would be playing, suggesting it wasn’t too serious. But a couple weeks have elapsed since.

Late last week, Middleton spoke to the media—including The Athletic’s Eric Nehm—about the recovery process. Notably, he said “I can’t think of an ankle sprain I’ve had this bad like this” while also saying that his swelling was nearly gone, and he was just waiting for the last bit of it to subside, so he could “move freely without pain.” He also related how after he sustained the sprain and attempted to play on it, he went back to the trainer’s room, where his ankle swelled up like a balloon when he removed his shoe.

I’m no physician, but knowing all this and factoring in the crutches, this was probably a grade-two sprain. That’s typically anywhere from a four to six-week injury, and tomorrow would mark five weeks to the day since it occurred. If Middleton does play on Tuesday, that’s a pretty standard recovery time, and given how careful it seemed the Bucks were being throughout this process, he’s probably pain-free. Though he might not say he’s at 100%, especially with how the layoff likely affected his conditioning, he’s probably close enough.

With just over a month left in the regular season, Middleton will have ample time to work back to the workload he undertook prior: he averaged a hair under 30 MPG in January and was over 30 in every game that was not a blowout or the second night of a back-to-back, which he did once. Of course, there are no back-to-backs in the playoffs, but the Bucks do have one coming up next week before two more to begin April.

Moreover, Middleton has played just three games and eight minutes of a fourth since Rivers took over. To that end, the coach said on Friday that he may not have Middleton on much of a minutes restriction—if at all—since he hasn’t played much lately, so the reps will be important for both him and the team. We’ll see how much he plays in the coming games, but he may not be eased in quite as slowly as we saw after last year’s injuries. He also seems likely to rejoin the starting lineup, which is the NBA’s best five-man unit (minimum 300 minutes) with him in it. Yes, better than Denver or Boston’s starters.

Much has been made about Milwaukee’s defensive resurgence since Rivers took over, but also people are talking about the offense’s slip: they’re just thirteenth in offensive rating at 116.9 under Rivers after being top-two under Griffin. All but four of Doc’s nineteen games featured a healthy Middleton, who looked like a key to the Bucks’ success before his injury by the eye test. The advanced stats backed it up, as the offense was a full 4.4 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor this season (the defense happens to be 1.7 points per 100 better too). With his combination of secondary ballhandling, shot creation, and jump shooting, his return will likely make an immediate difference offensively.