Trump, Biden polling too close to call in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin

The race between former President Donald Trump and President Biden is too close to call in three key battleground states that could determine the outcome of the 2024 election, a new poll published Tuesday shows.

The FAU Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab) and Mainstreet Research poll shows that the races in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are all within the margin of error of 3.5%.

Biden narrowly won all three states in 2020.

In Pennsylvania, Biden’s home state, the poll shows the president lagging among all voters by 2% (Biden 43%, Trump 45%) and with likely voters (Biden 45%, Trump 47%).

The candidates are tied in Michigan at 45% among voters, but Biden pulls ahead by 1% among likely voters (Biden 47%, Trump 46%).

In Wisconsin, Biden is 2% ahead among all voters (Biden 40%, Trump 38%), but drops to losing by 1% with likely voters (Biden 40%, Trump 41%).

Biden won all three states by razor-thin margins in 2020: 2.8% in Michigan, 1.2% in Pennsylvania and 0.63% in Wisconsin.

“Neither side has a meaningful advantage in any of the three states at this time,” said Dukhong Kim, Ph.D., associate professor of political science at Florida Atlantic University in Boca Raton.

But the results are shaken up with the addition of third-party candidates, especially independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who pulls the race toward Biden in all three states when he’s on the ballot.

Kennedy puts Biden ahead of Trump in Wisconsin by 38% to 31%, Pennsylvania by 41% to 39% and Michigan by 41% to 39%. The independent comes in at 13%, 8% and 11%, respectively, in the three states, but his campaign has claimed its ballot petition is complete only in Michigan.

The poll was conducted via an online panel between May 30 and 31 in the three battleground states and had a sample size of 797 adults.